Antalyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Besiktas were slight favourites.
Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 14). Antalyaspor had 5 days of rest, Besiktas 6 and had to travel 481 km.
Away travel481 kmRest days5 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Antalyaspor27%
Draw26%
Besiktas47%
Antalyaspor27%
Draw26%
Besiktas47%
Antalyaspor26%
Draw26%
Besiktas48%
Antalyaspor21%
Draw24%
Besiktas55%
Antalyaspor27%
Draw26%
Besiktas47%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Antalya)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCihan Aydin
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 9
Team strength
Antalyaspor
Besiktas
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
11
AttackIn forecast
60
14
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBesiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntalyasporBesiktas
1.09
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.64
1.82
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.36
0.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.85
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
73%
Scored inContext
82%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
8.82
ShotsContext
13.27
4.27
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.09
49%
On target shareContext
38%
5.91
Shots in the boxContext
10.09
63%
Box shareContext
75%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.56
15.64
Shots allowedContext
11.73
5.55
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.64
3.27
BlocksContext
2.70
3.73
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
67%
Save rateContext
67%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
341
PassesContext
396
275
Accurate passesContext
326
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.55
FoulsContext
13.09
13.18
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.64
Yellow cardsContext
2.27
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.18
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.73
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.20
ShotsContext
13.00
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
50%
On target shareContext
38%
5.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
62%
Box shareContext
75%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.38
16.20
Shots allowedContext
11.80
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.30
BlocksContext
2.56
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
68%
Save rateContext
66%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
351
PassesContext
395
285
Accurate passesContext
322
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.50
FoulsContext
13.00
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antalyaspor
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km962 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Besiktas
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel481 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antalyaspor |
Besiktas |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Süper Lig 2025-2026, 3 Nov | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 2 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 481 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 962 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 16 | 14.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Antalyaspor
Confirmed XI
21A. Yiğiter(G)
3K. Paal
14G. Dzhikiya
23Jesper Ceesay
30L. Giannetti
7B. Balcı
88D. Šarić
6S. Dikmen
10A. Ömür
77Yohan Boli
9T. Čvančara
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
30E. Destanoğlu(G)
33R. Yılmaz
35Tiago Djaló
3G. de Abreu
25G. Sazdagi
8S. Uçan
4O. Ndidi
19E. Touré
18V. Černý
11C. Ünder
9T. Abraham
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antalyaspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Besiktas
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antalyaspor+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Besiktas-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Antalyaspor · Home
0.80points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-3
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 2.60
Besiktas · Away
1.33points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Antalyaspor | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–4 H | W 2–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 H | W 4–0 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 10 of 18 · 1.67 per game | 10 of 18 · 1.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Antalyaspor wins1 draws1 Besiktas wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.575%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 26 Jan 2025Antalyaspor1–1Besiktas
- 18 Aug 2024Besiktas4–2Antalyaspor
- 16 Mar 2024Besiktas1–2Antalyaspor
- 5 Nov 2023Antalyaspor3–2Besiktas
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Antalyaspor | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.09 | 1.64 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.82 | 1.36 | |
| Match goals | 2.91 | 3.00 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 64% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 64% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 18% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Antalyaspor | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antalyaspor | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.27 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.91 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 9.18 | 11.10 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 6/11 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 6/11 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 3/11 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.82 | 2.45 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.64 | 2.55 | |
| Match total | 5.46 | 5.00 | 4.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 8/11 | 82% 9/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 64% 7/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Antalyaspor | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 5.89 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.89 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 5.10 | 4.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cihan Aydin Türkiye · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.89league 4.62
Red cards0.22league 0.27
Cards 5+22%league 52%
Fouls26.1league 26.1
Penalties0.44league 0.27
Home wins33%league 37%
Antalyaspor2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L30 Aug 25H · Fatih Karagümrük1–20
- W2 May 25H · Konyaspor1–05
Besiktas1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W1 Jun 25A · BB Bodrumspor4–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Antalyaspor11 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
2
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
6
76-90
Besiktas11 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
6
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
6
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
6
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
