Antalyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Antalyaspor. Antalyaspor had 17.9 days of rest, Eyüpspor 17.9 and had to travel 481 km.
Away travel481 kmRest days17.9 · 17.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Antalyaspor38%
Draw28%
Eyüpspor34%
Antalyaspor40%
Draw27%
Eyüpspor33%
Antalyaspor39%
Draw29%
Eyüpspor33%
Antalyaspor31%
Draw28%
Eyüpspor41%
Antalyaspor38%
Draw28%
Eyüpspor34%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Antalya)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeKadir Saglam
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 16
Team strength
Antalyaspor
Eyüpspor
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
11
AttackIn forecast
9
14
DefenceIn forecast
10
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEyüpspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntalyasporEyüpspor
0.93
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.59
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.41
0.75
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
63%
Scored inContext
48%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
8.33
ShotsContext
10.19
3.42
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
40%
On target shareContext
32%
5.54
Shots in the boxContext
6.48
64%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.44
13.67
Shots allowedContext
13.48
4.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.74
3.12
BlocksContext
3.92
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
68%
Save rateContext
71%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
326
PassesContext
383
255
Accurate passesContext
312
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.77
12.15
FoulsContext
11.78
14.08
Fouls sufferedContext
14.93
2.22
Yellow cardsContext
2.15
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.04
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
0.78
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
50%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.90
ShotsContext
8.90
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.11
35%
On target shareContext
32%
5.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
64%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.10
12.90
Shots allowedContext
14.50
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
3.56
BlocksContext
3.80
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
77%
Save rateContext
70%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
299
PassesContext
389
225
Accurate passesContext
312
75%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.78
14.20
FoulsContext
11.70
13.90
Fouls sufferedContext
14.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antalyaspor
Rest17.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Eyüpspor
Rest17.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel481 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antalyaspor |
Eyüpspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 17.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 18 Mar | 17.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 18 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 481 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Antalyaspor
Confirmed XI
21A. Yiğiter(G)
3K. Paal
30L. Giannetti
89V. Sarı
17E. Yeşilyurt
6S. Dikmen
11S. Ballet
88D. Šarić
8R. Safouri
10A. Ömür
22S. van de Streek
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
1Marcos Felipe(G)
77C. Meraş
16S. Yaşar
5B. Ozyurt
17Talha Ülvan
22Denis Radu
15Charles-Andre Raux Yao
55B. Gezek
2Calegari
19U. Bozok
10Á. Torres
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antalyaspor
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Eyüpspor
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antalyaspor-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Eyüpspor+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Antalyaspor · Home
0.92points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-7
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 2.38
Eyüpspor · Away
0.69points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-8
- Scored
- 0.62
- Conceded
- 1.46
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Antalyaspor | Eyüpspor |
|---|---|---|
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 0–0 AL 0–4 H | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 1–4 HL 2–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Rizespor | L 0–1 AL 2–5 H | L 0–3 A |
| Fenerbahce | D 2–2 HL 0–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Kayserispor | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Samsunspor | W 3–1 HW 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 AW 2–1 H | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Kocaelispor | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Galatasaray | L 1–4 H | L 1–5 AL 0–2 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 0–0 A | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Goztepe | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Konyaspor | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 AL 1–4 H |
| Besiktas | L 1–3 H | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Points | 22 of 78 · 0.85 per game | 22 of 78 · 0.85 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Antalyaspor wins0 draws2 Eyüpspor wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 3 Nov 2025Eyüpspor0–1Antalyaspor
- 24 May 2025Eyüpspor2–1Antalyaspor
- 4 Jan 2025Antalyaspor1–4Eyüpspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Antalyaspor | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.93 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.59 | 1.41 | |
| Match goals | 2.52 | 2.11 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 59% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 37% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 41% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 37% | 52% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Antalyaspor | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.30 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antalyaspor | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.81 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 5.08 | |
| Match total | 9.48 | 8.83 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 16/27 | 42% 10/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 59% 16/27 | 33% 8/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 11/27 | 25% 6/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.22 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.37 | 1.96 | |
| Match total | 4.67 | 4.18 | 4.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 18/27 | 59% 16/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 13/27 | 37% 10/27 | |
| Antalyaspor | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 2.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.60 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 7.00 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.50 | 4.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kadir Saglam Türkiye · 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.81league 4.41
Red cards0.06league 0.21
Cards 5+50%league 45%
Fouls28.4league 26.1
Penalties0.25league 0.28
Home wins31%league 39%
Antalyaspor1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D20 Sep 25H · Kayserispor1–13
Eyüpspor1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D27 Sep 25H · Goztepe0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Antalyaspor27 games · scored 25 · conceded 43
3
9
0-15
4
4
16-30
5
6
31-45
4
8
46-60
4
4
61-75
5
12
76-90
Eyüpspor27 games · scored 19 · conceded 38
3
7
0-15
1
3
16-30
6
31-45
5
4
46-60
4
6
61-75
6
12
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
5
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
