Antalyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Antalyaspor were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Antalyaspor had 6.1 days of rest, Fatih Karagümrük 8 and had to travel 481 km.
Away travel481 kmRest days6.1 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Antalyaspor43%
Draw27%
Fatih Karagümrük30%
Antalyaspor43%
Draw27%
Fatih Karagümrük30%
Antalyaspor43%
Draw27%
Fatih Karagümrük30%
Antalyaspor36%
Draw27%
Fatih Karagümrük37%
Antalyaspor43%
Draw27%
Fatih Karagümrük30%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Antalya)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCihan Aydin
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.67
- Matches 3
Team strength
Antalyaspor
Fatih Karagümrük
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
11
AttackIn forecast
13
14
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntalyasporFatih Karagümrük
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.00
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
0.43
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.47
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.43
67%
Scored inContext
0%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.00
ShotsContext
7.50
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.00
47%
On target shareContext
27%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
2.00
73%
Box shareContext
30%
10%
ConversionContext
0%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.33
Shots allowedContext
21.50
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.50
3.33
BlocksContext
5.00
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
80%
Save rateContext
60%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
363
PassesContext
323
285
Accurate passesContext
256
79%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.45
10.67
FoulsContext
12.00
11.67
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.50
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
0.66
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
—
50%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.70
ShotsContext
13.30
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
37%
On target shareContext
37%
5.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
63%
Box shareContext
55%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.10
Shots allowedContext
16.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
2.78
BlocksContext
3.60
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
73%
Save rateContext
62%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
388
PassesContext
362
314
Accurate passesContext
289
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.83
12.50
FoulsContext
11.50
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.40
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antalyaspor
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,575 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel481 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antalyaspor |
Fatih Karagümrük |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 24 Aug | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 22 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 481 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,575 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.8 | 13.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Antalyaspor
Confirmed XI
1Julián(G)
3K. Paal
14G. Dzhikiya
30L. Giannetti
7B. Balcı
22S. van de Streek
23Jesper Ceesay
10A. Ömür
26N. Storm
9T. Čvančara
11G. Vural
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
29J. Balkovec
94Anıl Yiğit Çınar
32Muhammed Kadioglu
6A. Çankaya
70Serginho
11D. Johnson
72Baris Kalayci
20T. Kalpakli
21T. Çukur
91A. Gray
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antalyaspor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Fatih Karagümrük
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antalyaspor+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Fatih Karagümrük+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Antalyaspor · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Fatih Karagümrük · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Antalyaspor wins0 draws1 Fatih Karagümrük wins
Goals per game1.50 – 2.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 29 Apr 2024Fatih Karagümrük4–1Antalyaspor
- 9 Dec 2023Antalyaspor2–1Fatih Karagümrük
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Antalyaspor | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.67 | 2.50 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 0% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 100% | |
| Games | 3 | 2 |
| Antalyaspor | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.67 | 2.50 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 0% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 100% | |
| Games | 3 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antalyaspor | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 8.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 11.50 | 9.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.66 | 2.50 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Antalyaspor | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 5.90 | |
| Match total | 7.90 | 10.60 | 9.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.30 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cihan Aydin Türkiye · 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 4.13
Red cards0.33league 0.29
Cards 5+33%league 42%
Fouls32.3league 25.8
Penalties0.67league 0.38
Home wins33%league 42%
Antalyaspor1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.5.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W2 May 25H · Konyaspor1–05
Fatih KaragümrükNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Antalyaspor3 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük2 games · scored 0 · conceded 5
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 6 · conceded 11
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 15 · conceded 19
2
0-15
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
6
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
