Antalyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Goztepe were slight favourites.
Goztepe were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 13). Absences weigh more on Antalyaspor. Antalyaspor had 5.9 days of rest, Goztepe 7.1 and had to travel 355 km.
Away travel355 kmRest days5.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Antalyaspor28%
Draw27%
Goztepe45%
Antalyaspor29%
Draw27%
Goztepe44%
Antalyaspor29%
Draw27%
Goztepe43%
Antalyaspor22%
Draw26%
Goztepe52%
Antalyaspor28%
Draw26%
Goztepe46%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Antalya)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAdnan Deniz Kayatepe
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 8
Team strength
Antalyaspor
Goztepe
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
11
AttackIn forecast
39
14
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGoztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntalyasporGoztepe
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.15
1.77
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.46
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
69%
Scored inContext
69%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
69%
8.15
ShotsContext
12.69
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
45%
On target shareContext
32%
5.75
Shots in the boxContext
7.85
64%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.83
15.08
Shots allowedContext
11.54
5.15
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.23
3.46
BlocksContext
3.42
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.85
66%
Save rateContext
88%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
343
PassesContext
244
275
Accurate passesContext
169
80%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.84
11.38
FoulsContext
16.69
13.62
Fouls sufferedContext
9.31
2.62
Yellow cardsContext
2.08
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
0.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.81
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
7.60
ShotsContext
12.10
3.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
45%
On target shareContext
32%
5.22
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
62%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.11
15.60
Shots allowedContext
11.50
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.50
BlocksContext
3.11
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
63%
Save rateContext
87%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
37%
337
PassesContext
240
273
Accurate passesContext
165
81%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.60
FoulsContext
16.10
14.20
Fouls sufferedContext
8.80
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antalyaspor
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km382 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Goztepe
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel355 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antalyaspor |
Goztepe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 24 Nov | 7.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 23 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 355 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 382 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Antalyaspor
Confirmed XI
21A. Yiğiter(G)
2S. Karakoc
4H. Türkmen
89V. Sarı
7B. Balcı
3K. Paal
23Jesper Ceesay
26N. Storm
8R. Safuri
10A. Ömür
77Yohan Boli
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
26M. Bokele
5Héliton
4T. Altıkardeş
15A. Cherni
20N. Miroshi
30A. Dennis
2A. Kurtulan
11Efkan Bekiroğlu
39Janderson
9Juan
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antalyaspor
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Goztepe
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antalyaspor-1.2 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Goztepe+1.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Antalyaspor · Home
0.67points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-4
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 2.67
Goztepe · Away
1.57points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-2
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 0.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Antalyaspor | Goztepe |
|---|---|---|
| Konyaspor | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Besiktas | L 1–3 H | W 3–0 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–4 H | W 1–0 H |
| Rizespor | L 2–5 H | W 3–0 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 11 of 30 · 1.10 per game | 22 of 30 · 2.20 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Antalyaspor wins1 draws1 Goztepe wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 100%
- 19 Jan 2025Goztepe1–0Antalyaspor
- 10 Aug 2024Antalyaspor0–0Goztepe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Antalyaspor | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.15 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.77 | 0.46 | |
| Match goals | 2.77 | 1.62 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 54% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 23% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 8% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 23% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 69% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 31% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Antalyaspor | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 1.60 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 20% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antalyaspor | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.46 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.15 | 4.85 | |
| Match total | 9.15 | 9.31 | 9.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 7/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 7/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 4/13 | 23% 3/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.77 | 2.31 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.38 | 2.31 | |
| Match total | 5.15 | 4.62 | 4.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 9/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 54% 7/13 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Antalyaspor | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 9.50 | 9.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 4.20 | 4.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adnan Deniz Kayatepe Türkiye · 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.63league 4.48
Red cards0.13league 0.27
Cards 5+50%league 48%
Fouls25.9league 26.1
Penalties0.50league 0.28
Home wins38%league 37%
AntalyasporNo previous matches with this referee.
GoztepeNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Antalyaspor13 games · scored 13 · conceded 23
2
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
7
76-90
Goztepe13 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 21
2
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
7
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 10 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
