Antalyaspor vs Istanbul Basaksehir – 26 Oct 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 10 Sun, Oct 26 · 11:30 Corendon Airlines Park, Antalya

Antalyaspor 11th · 10 pts · 9 played WDLLL

0–4Full time

Istanbul Basaksehir 16th · 7 pts · 9 played DLLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Istanbul Basaksehir were the stronger side on L90 Strength (24 vs 14). Antalyaspor had 6.9 days of rest, Istanbul Basaksehir 3.8 and had to travel 481 km.

Away travel481 kmRest days6.9 · 3.8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Antalyaspor33%

Draw27%

Istanbul Basaksehir40%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.43

Antalyaspor34%

Draw27%

Istanbul Basaksehir38%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.38

Antalyaspor34%

Draw27%

Istanbul Basaksehir39%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.41

Antalyaspor27%

Draw26%

Istanbul Basaksehir47%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.61

Antalyaspor34%

Draw27%

Istanbul Basaksehir39%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.40

Over 2.5 51% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Antalya)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeUmit Ozturk

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 5

Team strength

Antalyaspor

Istanbul Basaksehir

14 L90 StrengthIn forecast 24

13 Current StrengthIn forecast 36

11 AttackIn forecast 32

14 DefenceIn forecast 34

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Antalyaspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Istanbul Basaksehir

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Antalyaspor

Istanbul Basaksehir

1.22 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.78

1.78 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.75 xGVia Att/Def 0.99

1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17

+0.47 Goals minus xGContext -0.21

78% Scored inContext 67%

11% Clean sheetsContext 33%

8.89 ShotsContext 10.44

4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.22

53% On target shareContext 31%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

63% Box shareContext 58%

14% ConversionContext 7%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.14

15.67 Shots allowedContext 12.33

5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.78

3.44 BlocksContext 3.44

3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

67% Save rateContext 77%

44% PossessionIn forecast 55%

347 PassesContext 425

278 Accurate passesContext 358

80% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.82

12.00 FoulsContext 12.00

13.67 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00

2.78 Yellow cardsContext 2.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

0.71 xGVia Att/Def 1.01

1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

+0.39 Goals minus xGContext -0.21

70% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

8.90 ShotsContext 10.50

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.10

49% On target shareContext 30%

5.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

61% Box shareContext 62%

12% ConversionContext 8%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.14

15.10 Shots allowedContext 13.10

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

3.20 BlocksContext 3.50

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

65% Save rateContext 71%

44% PossessionIn forecast 57%

360 PassesContext 437

292 Accurate passesContext 370

81% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.78

11.60 FoulsContext 12.10

14.10 Fouls sufferedContext 14.50

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Antalyaspor

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,188 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Istanbul Basaksehir

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel481 km1,940 km in 14d

Schedule load11%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Antalyaspor	Istanbul Basaksehir
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 11
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 19 Oct	3.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 22 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	481 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,188 km	1,940 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8.2	5.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Antalyaspor Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

21A. Yiğiter(G)

3K. Paal 14G. Dzhikiya 30L. Giannetti 7B. Balcı

88D. Šarić

70D. Sinik 22S. van de Streek 23Jesper Ceesay 10A. Ömür

24B. Gueye

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Istanbul Basaksehir Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

16M. Şengezer(G)

21C. Opéri 3J. Opoku 5Léo Duarte 6O. Bulut

20U. Güneş 2B. Özdemir

10Nuno da Costa 13Miguel Crespo 7Y. Sarı

14E. Shomurodov

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Antalyaspor Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Istanbul Basaksehir Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Antalyaspor-0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Istanbul Basaksehir+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Antalyaspor · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 2.25

Istanbul Basaksehir · Away 0.80points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-3
Scored: 0.80
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Antalyaspor	Istanbul Basaksehir
Rizespor	L 2–5 H	D 0–0 A
Kayserispor	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 H
Fatih Karagümrük	L 1–2 H	W 2–0 A
Points	1 of 9 · 0.33 per game	5 of 9 · 1.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Antalyaspor wins1 draws2 Istanbul Basaksehir wins

Goals per game0.75 – 1.50 Over 2.525% Both scored25% Clean sheets50% · 50%

9 Feb 2025Antalyaspor0–0Istanbul Basaksehir
1 Sep 2024Istanbul Basaksehir5–2Antalyaspor
9 Mar 2024Istanbul Basaksehir1–0Antalyaspor
29 Oct 2023Antalyaspor1–0Istanbul Basaksehir

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Antalyaspor	Istanbul Basaksehir	Forecast
Scored per game	1.22	0.78
Conceded per game	1.78	1.00
Match goals	3.00	1.78	2.73
Over 1.5	78%	67%
Over 2.5	56%	33%	51%
Over 3.5	22%	0%
Both teams scored	67%	56%	56%
Clean sheets	11%	33%
Failed to score	22%	33%
Games	9	9

	Antalyaspor	Istanbul Basaksehir	Forecast
Scored per game	1.22	0.78
Conceded per game	1.78	1.00
Match goals	3.00	1.78	2.73
Over 1.5	78%	67%
Over 2.5	56%	33%	51%
Over 3.5	22%	0%
Both teams scored	67%	56%	56%
Clean sheets	11%	33%
Failed to score	22%	33%
Games	9	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Antalyaspor	Istanbul Basaksehir	League
Corners
Corners won	4.67	5.33
Corners conceded	4.67	4.78
Match total	9.34	10.11	9.72
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.89	2.44
Opponent cards	2.78	3.11
Match total	5.67	5.55	5.05
Over 3.5	67% 6/9	78% 7/9
Over 4.5	67% 6/9	67% 6/9

	Antalyaspor	Istanbul Basaksehir	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	5.50
Corners conceded	4.40	4.60
Match total	8.80	10.10	9.72
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.60	2.90
Opponent cards	2.50	3.40
Match total	5.10	6.30	5.05
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Umit Ozturk Türkiye · 5 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.20league 4.79

Red cards0.00league 0.26

Cards 5+60%league 56%

Fouls23.8league 26.6

Penalties0.20league 0.29

Home wins20%league 38%

Antalyaspor

No previous matches with this referee.

Istanbul Basaksehir

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.