Antalyaspor vs Kasimpasa – 9 Aug 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 9 · 19:30 Corendon Airlines Park, Antalya

Antalyaspor

2–1Full time

Kasimpasa

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Kasimpasa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (24 vs 15). Antalyaspor had ? days of rest, Kasimpasa ? and had to travel 481 km.

Away travel481 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Antalyaspor36%

Draw27%

Kasimpasa38%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.39

Antalyaspor36%

Draw27%

Kasimpasa37%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.35

Antalyaspor36%

Draw27%

Kasimpasa38%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.39

Antalyaspor29%

Draw26%

Kasimpasa45%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.56

Antalyaspor36%

Draw27%

Kasimpasa37%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.35

Over 2.5 52% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Antalya)

No weather data yet

RefereeAlper Akarsu

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.50
Matches 16

Team strength

Antalyaspor

Kasimpasa

15 L90 StrengthIn forecast 24

13 Current StrengthIn forecast 23

11 AttackIn forecast 21

14 DefenceIn forecast 32

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Antalyaspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Kasimpasa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Antalyaspor

Kasimpasa

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

0.75 xGVia Att/Def 1.62

1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.08

50% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

8.60 ShotsContext 14.10

2.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

34% On target shareContext 37%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

67% Box shareContext 65%

8% ConversionContext 12%

1.63 OffsidesContext 2.30

11.00 Shots allowedContext 9.80

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.30

2.75 BlocksContext 2.13

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22

66% Save rateContext 63%

49% PossessionIn forecast 52%

402 PassesContext 405

330 Accurate passesContext 331

82% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.73 Team ratingContext 7.11

14.10 FoulsContext 13.40

13.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Antalyaspor

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Kasimpasa

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel481 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Antalyaspor	Kasimpasa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	481 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Antalyaspor Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

21A. Yiğiter(G)

3K. Paal 5B. Öztürk 89V. Sarı 22S. van de Streek

18J. Kałuziński 6S. Dikmen

26N. Storm 10A. Ömür 11G. Vural

9T. Čvančara

Kasimpasa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Gianniotis(G)

14J. Espinoza 41A. Szalai 20N. Opoku 2C. Winck Neto

8Cafú 16A. Baldursson

12A. Ben Ouanes 10H. Hajradinović 7M. Fall

77P. Guèye

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Antalyaspor Absences are shown before kick-off

Kasimpasa Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Antalyaspor+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Kasimpasa+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Antalyaspor · Home No home games yet this season.

Kasimpasa · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Antalyaspor wins2 draws1 Kasimpasa wins

Goals per game0.75 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 50%

22 Feb 2025Antalyaspor2–1Kasimpasa
22 Sep 2024Kasimpasa0–0Antalyaspor
12 May 2024Kasimpasa3–1Antalyaspor
20 Dec 2023Antalyaspor0–0Kasimpasa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Antalyaspor	Kasimpasa	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.74
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	52%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	56%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Antalyaspor	Kasimpasa	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.74
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	52%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	56%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Antalyaspor	Kasimpasa	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.50
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Antalyaspor	Kasimpasa	League
Corners
Corners won	3.40	5.80
Corners conceded	4.00	3.30
Match total	7.40	9.10	4.50
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.80
Opponent cards	1.60	2.20
Match total	3.80	5.00	3.50
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alper Akarsu 16 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.69league 3.00

Red cards0.06league 0.50

Cards 5+56%league 50%

Fouls23.6league 26.5

Penalties0.50league 1.50

Home wins44%league 50%

Antalyaspor2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

D18 May 25H · Gazişehir Gaziantep0–02
W9 Nov 24H · BB Bodrumspor3–23

Kasimpasa1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 2

D23 Dec 24A · Istanbul Basaksehir2–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.