Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor – 17 May 2026

Süper Lig Gameweek 34 Sun, May 17 · 18:00 Corendon Airlines Park, Antalya

Antalyaspor 18th · 29 pts · 33 played LLLDL

1–0Full time

Kocaelispor 11th · 37 pts · 33 played DDLDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Kocaelispor were slight favourites.

Kocaelispor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (20 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Kocaelispor. Antalyaspor had 8 days of rest, Kocaelispor 8 and had to travel 410 km.

Away travel410 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Antalyaspor31%

Draw29%

Kocaelispor40%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.32

Antalyaspor35%

Draw27%

Kocaelispor38%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.37

Antalyaspor32%

Draw29%

Kocaelispor39%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.30

Antalyaspor25%

Draw28%

Kocaelispor47%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.48

Antalyaspor32%

Draw29%

Kocaelispor40%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.31

Over 2.5 44% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Antalya)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeHalil Umut Meler

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 37

Team strength

Antalyaspor

Kocaelispor

12 L90 StrengthIn forecast 20

13 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

11 AttackIn forecast 16

14 DefenceIn forecast 32

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Antalyaspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Kocaelispor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Antalyaspor

Kocaelispor

0.97 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.79

1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.12

0.77 xGVia Att/Def 0.86

1.54 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92

+0.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

61% Scored inContext 58%

24% Clean sheetsContext 30%

8.97 ShotsContext 9.82

3.41 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.10

37% On target shareContext 29%

5.91 Shots in the boxContext 6.12

63% Box shareContext 63%

11% ConversionContext 8%

2.13 OffsidesContext 2.32

13.58 Shots allowedContext 10.76

5.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.37

3.10 BlocksContext 3.53

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.52

68% Save rateContext 66%

45% PossessionIn forecast 50%

328 PassesContext 365

258 Accurate passesContext 293

79% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.72

12.09 FoulsContext 14.63

14.22 Fouls sufferedContext 13.27

2.24 Yellow cardsContext 2.12

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 33 and 33 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

0.81 xGVia Att/Def 0.76

1.89 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.03

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.26

50% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.60 ShotsContext 8.50

3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.14

32% On target shareContext 18%

7.10 Shots in the boxContext 5.70

66% Box shareContext 69%

9% ConversionContext 6%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.33

13.10 Shots allowedContext 10.80

6.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

2.63 BlocksContext 3.60

4.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

74% Save rateContext 65%

48% PossessionIn forecast 49%

329 PassesContext 366

257 Accurate passesContext 293

78% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.69

13.10 FoulsContext 14.50

13.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Antalyaspor

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km962 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Kocaelispor

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel410 km394 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Antalyaspor	Kocaelispor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 May	8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	410 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	962 km	394 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	—	91

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Antalyaspor Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

21A. Yiğiter(G)

3K. Paal 4H. Türkmen 30L. Giannetti 7B. Balcı

23Jesper Ceesay 6S. Dikmen

11S. Ballet 8R. Safouri 10A. Ömür

22S. van de Streek

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Kocaelispor Confirmed XI

4-3-3

83S. Öztaşdelen(G)

21M. Haïdara 6H. Smolčić 2A. Dijksteel 22A. Oğuz

20Mahamadou Susoho 14Show 8H. Keïta

17D. Churlinov 7Daniel Agyei 99R. Rivas

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Antalyaspor Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Kocaelispor Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Antalyaspor-0.6 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Kocaelispor+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Antalyaspor · Home 1.00points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 4-4-8
Scored: 1.31
Conceded: 2.06

Kocaelispor · Away 0.88points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 3-5-8
Scored: 0.69
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Antalyaspor	Kocaelispor
Galatasaray	L 2–4 AL 1–4 H	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H
Alanyaspor	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A	L 0–5 AW 2–0 H
Goztepe	L 0–2 AL 1–2 H	D 1–1 HD 0–0 A
Konyaspor	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A	L 1–2 HW 3–2 A
Besiktas	L 2–4 AL 1–3 H	L 0–1 HL 1–3 A
Eyüpspor	W 3–0 HW 1–0 A	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H
Istanbul Basaksehir	D 0–0 AL 0–4 H	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A
Gazişehir Gaziantep	L 1–4 HL 2–3 A	W 3–0 HL 0–2 A
Rizespor	L 0–1 AL 2–5 H	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H
Fenerbahce	D 2–2 HL 0–2 A	L 0–2 HL 1–3 A
Kayserispor	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H
Samsunspor	W 3–1 HW 2–1 A	D 0–0 AL 0–1 H
Fatih Karagümrük	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H	L 0–1 HD 1–1 A
Trabzonspor	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A	L 1–2 HL 0–1 A
Genclerbirligi	W 2–1 HW 1–0 A	L 0–1 AW 1–0 H
Kasimpasa	D 0–0 AW 2–1 H	D 1–1 AD 0–0 H
Points	29 of 96 · 0.91 per game	34 of 96 · 1.06 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Antalyaspor wins0 draws1 Kocaelispor wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

19 Dec 2025Kocaelispor2–1Antalyaspor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Antalyaspor	Kocaelispor	Forecast
Scored per game	0.97	0.79
Conceded per game	1.67	1.12
Match goals	2.64	1.91	2.45
Over 1.5	67%	58%
Over 2.5	52%	27%	44%
Over 3.5	30%	12%
Both teams scored	52%	39%	50%
Clean sheets	24%	30%
Failed to score	39%	42%
Games	33	33

	Antalyaspor	Kocaelispor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.50
Conceded per game	1.90	1.30
Match goals	2.90	1.80	2.45
Over 1.5	70%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	20%	44%
Over 3.5	40%	10%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	50%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Antalyaspor	Kocaelispor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.03	4.03
Corners conceded	5.64	3.90
Match total	9.67	7.93	9.35
Over 8.5	61% 20/33	39% 12/31
Over 9.5	61% 20/33	29% 9/31
Over 10.5	45% 15/33	13% 4/31
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.21
Opponent cards	2.67	2.12
Match total	4.97	4.33	4.63
Over 3.5	67% 22/33	58% 19/33
Over 4.5	52% 17/33	45% 15/33

	Antalyaspor	Kocaelispor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	2.78
Corners conceded	5.50	4.11
Match total	9.70	6.89	9.35
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	22% 2/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.90
Opponent cards	3.40	1.60
Match total	5.60	3.50	4.63
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Halil Umut Meler Türkiye · 37 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.32league 4.41

Red cards0.24league 0.22

Cards 5+46%league 44%

Fouls23.5league 26.0

Penalties0.35league 0.30

Home wins32%league 42%

Antalyaspor2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

L22 Feb 26A · Kayserispor0–11
D18 Jan 26A · Kasimpasa0–01

Kocaelispor

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.