Antalyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Konyaspor were slight favourites.
Konyaspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (21 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Konyaspor. Antalyaspor had 7 days of rest, Konyaspor 5.2 and had to travel 191 km.
Away travel191 kmRest days7 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Antalyaspor30%
Draw26%
Konyaspor43%
Antalyaspor36%
Draw27%
Konyaspor36%
Antalyaspor29%
Draw26%
Konyaspor46%
Antalyaspor24%
Draw25%
Konyaspor51%
Antalyaspor31%
Draw26%
Konyaspor43%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Antalya)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAbdullah Bugra Taskinsoy
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 3
Team strength
Antalyaspor
Konyaspor
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
11
AttackIn forecast
13
14
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKonyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntalyasporKonyaspor
1.03
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.24
1.62
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.41
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
66%
Scored inContext
79%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
8.79
ShotsContext
12.79
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.07
38%
On target shareContext
32%
5.89
Shots in the boxContext
7.76
64%
Box shareContext
61%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.19
OffsidesContext
2.17
13.69
Shots allowedContext
11.97
5.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.14
BlocksContext
3.15
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.59
69%
Save rateContext
64%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
322
PassesContext
399
252
Accurate passesContext
327
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.52
FoulsContext
11.59
13.96
Fouls sufferedContext
13.03
2.31
Yellow cardsContext
2.24
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.10
ShotsContext
11.10
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
35%
On target shareContext
33%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
67%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.25
13.40
Shots allowedContext
11.10
5.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.22
BlocksContext
3.33
4.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
77%
Save rateContext
74%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
295
PassesContext
386
226
Accurate passesContext
311
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.80
15.10
FoulsContext
12.50
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antalyaspor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km962 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Konyaspor
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel191 km1,005 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antalyaspor |
Konyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 10 Apr | 5.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 12 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 191 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 962 km | 1,005 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 10 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Antalyaspor
Confirmed XI
1Julián(G)
3K. Paal
30L. Giannetti
89V. Sarı
7B. Balcı
6S. Dikmen
70D. Sinik
8R. Safouri
88D. Šarić
11S. Ballet
22S. van de Streek
Konyaspor
Confirmed XI
1D. Ertaş(G)
24A. Boşluk
4A. Demirbağ
39A. Nagalo
5U. Yazğılı
77M. İbrahimoğlu
42M. Bjørlo
70K. Olaigbe
17Diogo Gonçalves
9D. Türüç
99B. Kramer
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antalyaspor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Konyaspor
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antalyaspor+1.8 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Konyaspor-2.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Antalyaspor · Home
1.07points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-7
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.21
Konyaspor · Away
0.93points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-7
- Scored
- 1.21
- Conceded
- 1.86
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Antalyaspor | Konyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Besiktas | L 2–4 AL 1–3 H | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 HW 4–1 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 0–0 AL 0–4 H | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 1–4 HL 2–3 A | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Rizespor | L 0–1 AL 2–5 H | D 1–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | D 2–2 HL 0–2 A | L 0–4 A |
| Kayserispor | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Samsunspor | W 3–1 HW 2–1 A | D 2–2 AL 1–3 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Kocaelispor | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H |
| Galatasaray | L 1–4 H | W 2–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Goztepe | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 27 of 84 · 0.96 per game | 33 of 84 · 1.18 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Antalyaspor wins4 draws0 Konyaspor wins
Goals per game0.80 – 0.60
Over 2.50%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 24 Nov 2025Konyaspor0–0Antalyaspor
- 2 May 2025Antalyaspor1–0Konyaspor
- 7 Dec 2024Konyaspor1–1Antalyaspor
- 21 Jan 2024Konyaspor1–1Antalyaspor
- 18 Aug 2023Antalyaspor1–1Konyaspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Antalyaspor | Konyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.03 | 1.24 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.62 | 1.41 | |
| Match goals | 2.66 | 2.66 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 66% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 52% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 66% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 34% | 21% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Antalyaspor | Konyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.30 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antalyaspor | Konyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.03 | 4.93 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.76 | 4.69 | |
| Match total | 9.79 | 9.62 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 18/29 | 48% 14/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 62% 18/29 | 48% 14/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 13/29 | 34% 10/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 2.31 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.48 | 2.34 | |
| Match total | 4.86 | 4.65 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 66% 19/29 | 66% 19/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 14/29 | 38% 11/29 | |
| Antalyaspor | Konyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.80 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.20 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 5.20 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Abdullah Bugra Taskinsoy Türkiye · 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.67league 4.41
Red cards0.33league 0.21
Cards 5+33%league 45%
Fouls23.3league 26.1
Penalties0.33league 0.28
Home wins33%league 40%
AntalyasporNo previous matches with this referee.
KonyasporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Antalyaspor29 games · scored 30 · conceded 47
3
11
0-15
5
4
16-30
5
7
31-45
5
9
46-60
5
4
61-75
7
12
76-90
Konyaspor29 games · scored 36 · conceded 41
1
2
0-15
10
6
16-30
3
12
31-45
5
9
46-60
3
7
61-75
14
5
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
Konyaspor10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
0-15
5
16-30
4
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
7
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
