Antalyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Antalyaspor. Antalyaspor had 5 days of rest, Rizespor 5.1 and had to travel 964 km.
Away travel964 kmRest days5 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Antalyaspor40%
Draw27%
Rizespor33%
Antalyaspor42%
Draw27%
Rizespor31%
Antalyaspor41%
Draw27%
Rizespor31%
Antalyaspor33%
Draw27%
Rizespor40%
Antalyaspor40%
Draw27%
Rizespor33%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Antalya)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOzan Ergun
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 8
Team strength
Antalyaspor
Rizespor
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
11
AttackIn forecast
22
14
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntalyasporRizespor
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
1.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.47
71%
Scored inContext
67%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
8.71
ShotsContext
10.50
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.67
53%
On target shareContext
25%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
64%
Box shareContext
57%
12%
ConversionContext
6%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.80
15.00
Shots allowedContext
13.17
4.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.00
BlocksContext
2.67
3.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
76%
Save rateContext
68%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
346
PassesContext
378
273
Accurate passesContext
303
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.86
FoulsContext
13.17
13.86
Fouls sufferedContext
14.50
2.57
Yellow cardsContext
2.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.00
ShotsContext
11.50
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
46%
On target shareContext
41%
6.11
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
63%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
16%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.71
12.90
Shots allowedContext
15.50
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
2.67
BlocksContext
3.50
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
73%
Save rateContext
67%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
363
PassesContext
369
291
Accurate passesContext
297
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.91
12.10
FoulsContext
12.20
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antalyaspor
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km962 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rizespor
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel964 km2,226 km in 14d
Schedule load17%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antalyaspor |
Rizespor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 17 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Süper Lig 2025-2026, 28 Sep | 5.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 28 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 964 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 962 km | 2,226 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.9 | 14.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Antalyaspor
Confirmed XI
1Julián(G)
3K. Paal
14G. Dzhikiya
30L. Giannetti
7B. Balcı
20Hasan Yakub İlçin
6S. Dikmen
26N. Storm
8R. Safouri
22S. van de Streek
77Yohan Boli
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
5C. Højer
3S. Akaydin
4A. Mocsi
37M. Şahin
20Q. Laçi
6G. Papanikolaou
99E. Bulut
18M. Buljubašić
19J. Rak-Sakyi
15V. Jurečka
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antalyaspor
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rizespor
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antalyaspor-1.4 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Rizespor+1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Antalyaspor · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Rizespor · Away
0.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Antalyaspor | Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Antalyaspor wins1 draws2 Rizespor wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.50
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 50%
- 8 Mar 2025Antalyaspor2–1Rizespor
- 4 Oct 2024Rizespor2–1Antalyaspor
- 14 Apr 2024Rizespor3–0Antalyaspor
- 26 Nov 2023Antalyaspor0–0Rizespor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Antalyaspor | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 2.17 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 33% | |
| Games | 7 | 6 |
| Antalyaspor | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 2.17 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 33% | |
| Games | 7 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antalyaspor | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.57 | 2.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.86 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 9.43 | 7.80 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.57 | 2.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 4.86 | 4.66 | 4.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Antalyaspor | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 9.00 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.00 | 4.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ozan Ergun Türkiye · 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.38league 4.62
Red cards0.25league 0.28
Cards 5+38%league 51%
Fouls23.6league 26.6
Penalties0.13league 0.25
Home wins63%league 38%
AntalyasporNo previous matches with this referee.
Rizespor1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L10 May 25A · Konyaspor1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Antalyaspor7 games · scored 7 · conceded 8
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Rizespor6 games · scored 4 · conceded 9
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 18 · conceded 17
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
5
4
61-75
6
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
