Antwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Antwerp were slight favourites.
Antwerp were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 18). Antwerp had 14.8 days of rest, Dender 15.8 and had to travel 46 km.
Away travel46 kmRest days14.8 · 15.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
Antwerp57%
Draw24%
Dender19%
Antwerp57%
Draw24%
Dender19%
Antwerp57%
Draw24%
Dender19%
Antwerp50%
Draw26%
Dender24%
Antwerp57%
Draw24%
Dender19%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deurne)
No weather data yet
RefereeWesli De Cremer
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.73
- Matches 22
Team strength
Antwerp
Dender
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
26
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
24
AttackIn forecast
15
19
DefenceIn forecast
15
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisDender
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntwerpDender
0.93
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.57
1.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.64
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
57%
Scored inContext
50%
7%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
10.50
ShotsContext
9.71
3.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.29
37%
On target shareContext
34%
5.92
Shots in the boxContext
6.64
56%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
6%
2.69
OffsidesContext
2.42
13.86
Shots allowedContext
14.14
4.79
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.21
4.14
BlocksContext
3.79
3.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.77
71%
Save rateContext
64%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
384
PassesContext
395
310
Accurate passesContext
306
81%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.70
12.00
FoulsContext
10.29
13.36
Fouls sufferedContext
11.79
2.36
Yellow cardsContext
1.29
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.14
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
-0.36
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
40%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.20
ShotsContext
10.40
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
32%
On target shareContext
36%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
54%
Box shareContext
67%
6%
ConversionContext
7%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.11
14.40
Shots allowedContext
14.70
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.40
BlocksContext
4.50
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
70%
Save rateContext
63%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
398
PassesContext
384
321
Accurate passesContext
298
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.68
12.50
FoulsContext
10.40
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antwerp
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Dender
Rest15.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel46 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antwerp |
Dender |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 8 Nov | 15.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 7 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 46 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
26R. Bozhinov
25B. Kouyaté
4Yuto Tsunashima
23G. Bijl
8D. Praet
16M. Benítez
24T. Somers
22F. Adekami
30C. Scott
9M. Al Sahafi
Dender
Confirmed XI
30G. Dietsch(G)
88F. Ferraro
7B. Goncalves
18N. Rôdes
5L. Marijnissen
70M. Sambu
17N. Mbamba
16R. Květ
24M. Viltard
9David Toševski
77B. Nsimba
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antwerp
Absences are shown before kick-off
Dender
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antwerp+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Dender+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Antwerp · Home
1.57points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-2
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 1.14
Dender · Away
0.29points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-5
- Scored
- 0.71
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Antwerp | Dender |
|---|---|---|
| RAAL La Louvière | W 3–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| St. Truiden | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Standard Liege | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Zulte Waregem | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Anderlecht | D 0–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Gent | L 1–2 H | L 0–3 A |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| KV Mechelen | W 2–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| Charleroi | D 1–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| OH Leuven | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Genk | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 14 of 42 · 1.00 per game | 5 of 42 · 0.36 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Antwerp | Dender | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.93 | 0.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 1.64 | |
| Match goals | 2.07 | 2.21 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 43% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 7% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 50% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Antwerp | Dender | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 2.50 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antwerp | Dender | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.21 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.71 | 5.14 | |
| Match total | 8.71 | 8.35 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 7/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 21% 3/14 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 2/14 | 14% 2/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.43 | 1.64 | |
| Match total | 4.93 | 3.14 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 10/14 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 64% 9/14 | 21% 3/14 | |
| Antwerp | Dender | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 9.00 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 3.10 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Wesli De Cremer 22 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.77league 3.86
Red cards0.23league 0.21
Cards 5+36%league 43%
Fouls24.0league 22.9
Penalties0.73league 0.27
Home wins64%league 44%
Antwerp4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.3
Pens for · against2 · 2
- W10 Aug 25H · OH Leuven3–13
- L17 Feb 24H · KV Mechelen0–12
- L28 Jan 24A · AS Eupen0–12
- L21 Oct 23A · Charleroi2–32
Dender1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L30 Aug 25A · Charleroi1–30
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Antwerp14 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Dender14 games · scored 8 · conceded 23
3
3
0-15
3
16-30
1
31-45
4
46-60
1
6
61-75
4
6
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 7 · conceded 12
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Dender10 games · scored 7 · conceded 18
3
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
