Antwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Genk were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Genk. Antwerp had 7.1 days of rest, Genk 7 and had to travel 78 km.
Away travel78 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Antwerp36%
Draw25%
Genk39%
Antwerp38%
Draw26%
Genk36%
Antwerp36%
Draw25%
Genk39%
Antwerp29%
Draw24%
Genk47%
Antwerp36%
Draw25%
Genk39%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deurne)
No weather data yet
RefereeJasper Vergoote
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 60
Team strength
Antwerp
Genk
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
26
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
24
AttackIn forecast
46
19
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntwerpGenk
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
2.39
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.68
+0.80
Goals minus xGContext
-0.39
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
17.50
ShotsContext
16.00
7.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
40%
On target shareContext
31%
12.50
Shots in the boxContext
13.50
71%
Box shareContext
83%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.50
13.00
Shots allowedContext
11.50
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.50
BlocksContext
4.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
83%
Save rateContext
57%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
441
PassesContext
502
351
Accurate passesContext
440
80%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.18
Team ratingContext
6.86
13.00
FoulsContext
15.50
6.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
3.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
2.05
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.75
60%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
16.10
ShotsContext
18.20
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
32%
On target shareContext
32%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
13.00
68%
Box shareContext
73%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
3.70
OffsidesContext
3.56
13.40
Shots allowedContext
11.40
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
4.50
BlocksContext
4.00
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
69%
Save rateContext
79%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
432
PassesContext
468
358
Accurate passesContext
402
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.99
Team ratingContext
7.03
12.20
FoulsContext
12.30
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antwerp
WW
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km189 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 68 · 6 pts vs 3.9 for an average club · +2.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antwerp |
Genk |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 15 Aug | 7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 15 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 78 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 189 km | 291 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
24T. Somers
20R. Van Helden
4Yuto Tsunashima
28L. Schelfhout
27E. Tuypens
30C. Scott
14Xander Dierickx
7A. Valencia
99L. Narh
9M. Frey
Genk
Confirmed XI
28L. Brughmans(G)
18J. Kayembe
44J. Kongolo
6M. Smets
77Z. El Ouahdi
8B. Heynen
21I. Bangoura
30A. Yokoyama
11Jeppe Erenbjerg
10J. Ito
17R. Durosinmi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antwerp
Absences are shown before kick-off
Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antwerp+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Genk+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Antwerp · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Genk · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Antwerp wins2 draws2 Genk wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 19 May 2026Genk0–0Antwerp
- 3 Apr 2026Antwerp1–2Genk
- 7 Dec 2025Antwerp3–0Genk
- 3 Aug 2025Genk1–1Antwerp
- 26 Dec 2023Genk3–0Antwerp
- 4 Nov 2023Antwerp3–2Genk
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Antwerp | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.00 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Antwerp | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 4.10 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antwerp | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.50 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 10.50 | 10.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 3.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 5.50 | 2.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Antwerp | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.70 | 7.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 10.70 | 10.60 | 10.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.30 | 2.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jasper Vergoote 60 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.40league 2.43
Red cards0.27league 0.14
Cards 5+25%league 19%
Fouls22.5league 21.6
Penalties0.38league 0.29
Home wins50%league 52%
Antwerp6 with this referee
Record2-2-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- L3 May 26H · Standard Liege0–53
- D6 Mar 26A · RAAL La Louvière0–03
- W7 Dec 25H · Genk3–01
- D25 Feb 24A · Gent2–22
- W4 Feb 24H · Club Brugge KV2–12
Genk6 with this referee
Record1-2-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W8 Feb 26H · Anderlecht2–02
- L7 Dec 25A · Antwerp0–31
- L27 Jul 25A · Club Brugge KV1–22
- L3 Mar 24H · Club Brugge KV0–32
- D20 Jan 24H · Cercle Brugge1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Antwerp2 games · scored 5 · conceded 1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
2
76-90
Genk2 games · scored 4 · conceded 4
2
0-15
16-30
3
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
2
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
6
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 13 · conceded 9
3
0-15
1
16-30
4
31-45
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
