Antwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Antwerp were slight favourites.
Antwerp were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 33). Antwerp had 6.8 days of rest, KV Mechelen 7.8 and had to travel 22 km.
Away travel22 kmRest days6.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Antwerp50%
Draw26%
KV Mechelen23%
Antwerp51%
Draw25%
KV Mechelen23%
Antwerp51%
Draw26%
KV Mechelen23%
Antwerp43%
Draw28%
KV Mechelen30%
Antwerp51%
Draw26%
KV Mechelen24%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deurne)
No weather data yet
RefereeBram Van Driessche
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.12
- Matches 26
Team strength
Antwerp
KV Mechelen
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
26
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
24
AttackIn forecast
18
19
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntwerpKV Mechelen
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.80
+0.61
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
8.75
ShotsContext
6.50
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
51%
On target shareContext
50%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
4.33
60%
Box shareContext
61%
17%
ConversionContext
19%
3.50
OffsidesContext
1.67
12.50
Shots allowedContext
19.75
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.75
3.50
BlocksContext
6.25
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.25
73%
Save rateContext
91%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
349
PassesContext
374
282
Accurate passesContext
308
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.75
FoulsContext
8.50
16.25
Fouls sufferedContext
8.00
2.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.80
+0.81
Goals minus xGContext
+0.57
90%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.40
ShotsContext
9.30
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
47%
On target shareContext
40%
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.75
61%
Box shareContext
65%
15%
ConversionContext
17%
2.71
OffsidesContext
2.33
9.10
Shots allowedContext
16.60
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
2.50
BlocksContext
4.60
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
72%
Save rateContext
85%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
495
PassesContext
415
415
Accurate passesContext
329
84%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.15
Team ratingContext
7.02
10.60
FoulsContext
8.30
14.10
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antwerp
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km180 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
KV Mechelen
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel22 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antwerp |
KV Mechelen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 17 Aug | 7.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 16 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 22 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 180 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
15Y. Thoelen(G)
33Z. Van Den Bosch
26R. Bozhinov
4Yuto Tsunashima
8D. Praet
5D. Foulon
20M. Doumbia
23G. Bijl
24T. Somers
9M. Al Sahafi
18V. Janssen
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
1O. De Wolf(G)
4Gora Diouf
8M. Konaté
2R. Halhal
23Moncef Zekri
16R. Schoofs
6F. Hammar
7T. Koudou
19A. Mrabti
35B. Bafdili
20L. Lauberbach
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antwerp
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
KV Mechelen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antwerp-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- KV Mechelen+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Antwerp · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
KV Mechelen · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Antwerp wins1 draws1 KV Mechelen wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 100%
- 17 Feb 2024Antwerp0–1KV Mechelen
- 30 Sep 2023KV Mechelen0–0Antwerp
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Antwerp | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.00 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 25% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 75% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Antwerp | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.00 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 25% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 75% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antwerp | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.50 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 7.25 | |
| Match total | 6.50 | 11.00 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.75 | 1.25 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 3.50 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 3/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Antwerp | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 9.60 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.00 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bram Van Driessche 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.27league 3.56
Red cards0.23league 0.21
Cards 5+38%league 29%
Fouls21.9league 23.0
Penalties0.12league 0.35
Home wins46%league 44%
Antwerp5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D17 Mar 24H · Union St. Gilloise1–13
- W31 Jan 24A · Standard Liege1–03
- D23 Dec 23H · KVC Westerlo2–22
- L29 Oct 23A · Club Brugge KV1–21
- W8 Oct 23H · AS Eupen4–10
KV Mechelen2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D11 Feb 24H · Genk1–11
- L12 Aug 23A · RWDM0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Antwerp4 games · scored 6 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
KV Mechelen4 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
1
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 17 · conceded 8
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 16 · conceded 8
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
