Antwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Antwerp were slight favourites.
St. Truiden were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Antwerp. Antwerp had 7.8 days of rest, St. Truiden 2.9 and had to travel.
Rest days7.8 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Antwerp46%
Draw23%
St. Truiden31%
Antwerp39%
Draw26%
St. Truiden35%
Antwerp46%
Draw23%
St. Truiden31%
Antwerp38%
Draw24%
St. Truiden38%
Antwerp46%
Draw23%
St. Truiden31%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deurne)
No weather data yet
RefereeBram Van Driessche
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 51
Team strength
Antwerp
St. Truiden
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
26
Current StrengthIn forecast
35
24
AttackIn forecast
37
19
DefenceIn forecast
32
62
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSt. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntwerpSt. Truiden
3.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.75
xGVia Att/Def
2.01
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.82
+1.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
100%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.67
ShotsContext
22.50
6.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
40%
On target shareContext
24%
11.67
Shots in the boxContext
14.00
69%
Box shareContext
62%
18%
ConversionContext
9%
1.33
OffsidesContext
3.50
12.33
Shots allowedContext
17.50
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.33
BlocksContext
3.50
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
62%
Save rateContext
70%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
419
PassesContext
520
335
Accurate passesContext
446
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.04
Team ratingContext
7.12
13.67
FoulsContext
11.00
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
7.00
0.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
60%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.60
ShotsContext
15.13
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.75
35%
On target shareContext
31%
10.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.63
69%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
3.10
OffsidesContext
2.33
14.00
Shots allowedContext
13.38
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.13
4.60
BlocksContext
4.11
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
66%
Save rateContext
65%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
437
PassesContext
506
361
Accurate passesContext
434
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.95
Team ratingContext
7.00
12.40
FoulsContext
10.20
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
7.90
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antwerp
WWD
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 62 · 7 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · +2.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antwerp |
St. Truiden |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 22 Aug | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 27 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
27E. Tuypens
20R. Van Helden
4Yuto Tsunashima
28L. Schelfhout
24T. Somers
10C. Scott
25M. Fofana
77I. Salah
99L. Narh
9M. Frey
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata
26V. Musliu
5S. Taniguchi
60R. Vanwesemael
14R. Merlen
8A. Sissako
10I. Sebaoui
71R. Araki
7A. Muja
77O. Diouf
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antwerp
Absences are shown before kick-off
St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antwerp+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Antwerp · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 2.50
St. Truiden · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Antwerp wins1 draws1 St. Truiden wins
Goals per game1.25 – 0.50
Over 2.525%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 28 Feb 2026Antwerp1–0St. Truiden
- 2 Nov 2025St. Truiden1–0Antwerp
- 3 Mar 2024Antwerp3–0St. Truiden
- 24 Nov 2023St. Truiden1–1Antwerp
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Antwerp | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.67 | 4.00 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 2 |
| Antwerp | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.40 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antwerp | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.67 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.50 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.67 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 0.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Antwerp | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.10 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 9.40 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.20 | 2.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bram Van Driessche 51 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.04league 2.50
Red cards0.22league 0.17
Cards 5+37%league 20%
Fouls21.4league 20.8
Penalties0.24league 0.30
Home wins49%league 50%
Antwerp9 with this referee
Record4-3-2
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- D19 May 26A · Genk0–02
- L21 Feb 26A · Union St. Gilloise1–21
- W8 Nov 25H · RAAL La Louvière3–14
- W24 Aug 25H · KV Mechelen2–11
- D17 Mar 24H · Union St. Gilloise1–13
St. Truiden5 with this referee
Record1-0-4
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.2
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W6 Dec 25H · Club Brugge KV3–22
- L26 Oct 25A · Union St. Gilloise0–22
- L14 Sep 25H · KVC Westerlo0–31
- L18 Feb 24A · Anderlecht1–41
- L27 Aug 23H · Cercle Brugge0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Antwerp3 games · scored 9 · conceded 5
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
76-90
St. Truiden2 games · scored 4 · conceded 4
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
7
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
1
6
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
61-75
6
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
