Antwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Union St. Gilloise were clear favourites.
Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Union St. Gilloise. Antwerp had 7 days of rest, Union St. Gilloise 2.7 and had to travel 42 km.
Away travel42 kmRest days7 · 2.7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Antwerp17%
Draw19%
Union St. Gilloise64%
Antwerp20%
Draw23%
Union St. Gilloise56%
Antwerp17%
Draw19%
Union St. Gilloise64%
Antwerp12%
Draw16%
Union St. Gilloise72%
Antwerp17%
Draw19%
Union St. Gilloise64%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deurne)
No weather data yet
RefereeJan Boterberg
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 41
Team strength
Antwerp
Union St. Gilloise
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
26
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
24
AttackIn forecast
62
19
DefenceIn forecast
74
22
Form indexContext
94
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntwerpUnion St. Gilloise
1.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.17
2.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+1.76
83%
Scored inContext
83%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
16.17
ShotsContext
16.50
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.33
37%
On target shareContext
44%
10.83
Shots in the boxContext
13.17
68%
Box shareContext
78%
11%
ConversionContext
19%
1.40
OffsidesContext
3.33
15.83
Shots allowedContext
11.67
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
4.17
BlocksContext
4.17
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
61%
Save rateContext
80%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
388
PassesContext
454
309
Accurate passesContext
375
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.73
Team ratingContext
7.19
14.17
FoulsContext
11.50
7.67
Fouls sufferedContext
11.33
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.20
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.66
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+1.54
60%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.60
ShotsContext
18.00
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.80
31%
On target shareContext
43%
10.30
Shots in the boxContext
13.78
66%
Box shareContext
76%
8%
ConversionContext
18%
2.33
OffsidesContext
3.11
15.90
Shots allowedContext
12.20
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.90
BlocksContext
4.11
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
67%
Save rateContext
73%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
402
PassesContext
468
326
Accurate passesContext
391
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.81
Team ratingContext
7.27
12.50
FoulsContext
11.11
8.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.78
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antwerp
WDLLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km173 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 22 · 4 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
Union St. Gilloise
WWWWW
Rest2.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel42 km1,295 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 94 · 15 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · +6.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antwerp |
Union St. Gilloise |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 13 Sep | 2.7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 17 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 42 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 173 km | 1,295 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21.2 | 21.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
28L. Schelfhout
3Álvaro Cortés
20R. Van Helden
44M. Busi
14Xander Dierickx
6Bahmed Deuff
25M. Fofana
48A. Vermeeren
9M. Frey
10C. Scott
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
12H. Koffi(G)
80O. Kričfaluši
29M. Sylla
55Nikki Havenaar
6K. Van de Perre
11G. da Silva Carvalho
8A. Zorgane
23B. Zeneli
27L. Patris
9Mateo Biondic
38R. Mofokeng
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antwerp
Absences are shown before kick-off
Union St. Gilloise
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antwerp+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Antwerp · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 3.00
Union St. Gilloise · Away
3.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 3.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Antwerp | Union St. Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden | L 1–4 H | W 3–0 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Antwerp wins3 draws1 Union St. Gilloise wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 21 Feb 2026Union St. Gilloise2–1Antwerp
- 25 Jul 2025Antwerp1–1Union St. Gilloise
- 17 Mar 2024Antwerp1–1Union St. Gilloise
- 3 Sep 2023Union St. Gilloise2–2Antwerp
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Antwerp | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 3.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.17 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.67 | 3.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 83% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Antwerp | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 4.00 | 3.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 90% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antwerp | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 11.17 | 9.00 | 10.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 1.17 | |
| Match total | 3.66 | 3.17 | 3.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Antwerp | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 11.10 | 8.44 | 10.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.10 | 3.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jan Boterberg 41 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.24league 3.03
Red cards0.17league 0.12
Cards 5+29%league 25%
Fouls20.4league 22.1
Penalties0.32league 0.27
Home wins37%league 51%
Antwerp6 with this referee
Record1-2-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against2 · 3
- L10 Apr 26A · Charleroi1–22
- L25 Jan 26H · Charleroi0–22
- L30 Aug 25A · KVC Westerlo0–23
- D30 Sep 23A · KV Mechelen0–01
- D3 Sep 23A · Union St. Gilloise2–22
Union St. Gilloise5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.8
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds1
- L2 May 26A · St. Truiden1–25
- D1 Mar 26A · KVC Westerlo0–03
- L5 Oct 25A · Club Brugge KV0–13
- W3 Aug 25H · OH Leuven5–01
- D3 Sep 23H · Antwerp2–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Antwerp6 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
Union St. Gilloise5 games · scored 14 · conceded 3
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
3
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
Union St. Gilloise9 games · scored 27 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
6
3
16-30
7
1
31-45
5
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
