Ararat-Armenia
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Tue, Aug 4 · 17:00
Yerevan Football Academy, Yerevan
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel2,449 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Ararat-Armenia—%
Draw—%
Celje—%
Weather (Yerevan)
No weather data yet
RefereeIvan Kružliak
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 37
Team strength
Ararat-Armenia
Celje
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
7
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
8
AttackIn forecast
17
8
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCelje
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Ararat-ArmeniaCelje
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
50%
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
33%
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.00
ShotsContext
10.88
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.86
36%
On target shareContext
39%
—
Shots in the boxContext
6.88
—
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
—
OffsidesContext
2.40
11.00
Shots allowedContext
17.38
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.38
—
BlocksContext
3.75
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.38
56%
Save rateContext
73%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
—
PassesContext
447
—
Accurate passesContext
381
—
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.48
Team ratingContext
6.88
—
FoulsContext
11.75
—
Fouls sufferedContext
15.50
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ararat-Armenia
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km8,069 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Celje
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel2,449 km1,347 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ararat-Armenia |
Celje |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 28 Jul | 6.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 28 Jul |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 2,449 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 8,069 km | 1,347 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ararat-Armenia
Confirmed XI
98João Bravim(G)
16E. Grigoryan
47A. Malis
43Bruno Wilson
3J. Julio
17M. Carlier
19K. Muradyan
2Hugo Oliveira
11Z. Banjaqui
91Sandro Lima
77A. Serobyan
Celje
Confirmed XI
1Ž. Leban(G)
6A. Tutyškinas
4D. Hrka
2P. Širvys
8M. Kvesić
19M. Zabukovnik
13P. Daniel
25V. Tusha
11M. Avdyli
47A. Kučys
10S. Sešlar
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ararat-Armenia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Celje
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Ararat-Armenia · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Celje · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Ararat-Armenia | Celje | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 2 |
| Ararat-Armenia | Celje | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ararat-Armenia | Celje | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | — | |
| Corners conceded | 2.00 | — | |
| Match total | 4.00 | — | 10.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | — | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | — | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.25 | 5.00 | 4.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Ararat-Armenia | Celje | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 4.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.33 | 5.75 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 9.88 | 10.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.80 | 4.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ivan Kružliak 37 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.43league 4.38
Red cards0.14league 0.25
Cards 5+54%league 45%
Fouls24.3league 25.9
Penalties0.30league 0.32
Home wins49%league 48%
Ararat-ArmeniaNo previous matches with this referee.
CeljeNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ararat-Armenia4 games · scored 7 · conceded 5
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
Celje1 games · scored 3 · conceded 3
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Ararat-Armenia10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
1
4
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
Celje9 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.