Ararat-Armenia
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Tue, Jul 21 · 17:00
Yerevan Football Academy, Yerevan
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel4,034 kmRest days7 · ?Matches / 14d2 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Ararat-Armenia—%
Draw—%
Shamrock Rovers—%
Weather (Yerevan)
No weather data yet
RefereeDavid Dickinson
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 61
Team strength
Ararat-Armenia
Shamrock Rovers
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
7
Current StrengthIn forecast
11
8
AttackIn forecast
13
8
DefenceIn forecast
12
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisShamrock Rovers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Ararat-ArmeniaShamrock Rovers
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
100%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
50%
On target shareContext
67%
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
33%
ConversionContext
24%
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.94
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.00
ShotsContext
10.43
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.43
36%
On target shareContext
52%
—
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
—
Box shareContext
65%
14%
ConversionContext
16%
—
OffsidesContext
3.20
11.00
Shots allowedContext
15.14
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
—
BlocksContext
5.17
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
56%
Save rateContext
59%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
—
PassesContext
328
—
Accurate passesContext
258
—
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.48
Team ratingContext
6.61
—
FoulsContext
9.00
—
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ararat-Armenia
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km4,750 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Shamrock Rovers
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel4,034 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ararat-Armenia |
Shamrock Rovers |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 14 Jul | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 4,034 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,750 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ararat-Armenia
Confirmed XI
98João Bravim(G)
14Bruno Pereira
3J. Julio
43Bruno Wilson
13K. Hovhannisyan
2Hugo Oliveira
19K. Muradyan
20A. Tera
7Z. Shaghoyan
91Sandro Lima
77A. Serobyan
Shamrock Rovers
Confirmed XI
1E. McGinty(G)
27C. O'Sullivan
4R. Lopes
5L. Grace
19A. Brennan
29J. Byrne
8M. Healy
7D. Watts
22T. Sobowale
10G. Burke
9A. Greene
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ararat-Armenia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Shamrock Rovers
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Ararat-Armenia · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Shamrock Rovers · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Ararat-Armenia | Shamrock Rovers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | — | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | — | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | — | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | — | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | — | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | — | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | — | |
| Clean sheets | 50% | — | |
| Failed to score | 0% | — | |
| Games | 2 | 0 |
| Ararat-Armenia | Shamrock Rovers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | — | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | — | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | — | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | — | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | — | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | — | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | — | |
| Clean sheets | 50% | — | |
| Failed to score | 0% | — | |
| Games | 2 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ararat-Armenia | Shamrock Rovers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 8.00 | 7.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 4.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 4.00 | 5.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Ararat-Armenia | Shamrock Rovers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.33 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 9.17 | 7.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.50 | 5.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · David Dickinson 61 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.43league 4.39
Red cards0.13league 0.32
Cards 5+46%league 36%
Fouls21.5league 18.0
Penalties0.26league 0.46
Home wins48%league 46%
Ararat-ArmeniaNo previous matches with this referee.
Shamrock RoversNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ararat-Armenia2 games · scored 4 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Shamrock Rovers2 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Ararat-Armenia10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
1
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
5
76-90
Shamrock Rovers10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
2
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
6
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.