UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs Play-offs Thu, Aug 27 · 17:00 Yerevan Football Academy, Yerevan
Ararat-Armenia 12th · 1 pts · 1 played
First leg1–1 1–0Full time
Universitatea Craiova 11th · 1 pts · 1 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,761 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Ararat-Armenia—%
Draw—%
Universitatea Craiova—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Yerevan)

No weather data yet

Referee · LithuaniaDonatas Rumsas
  • Cards per match 4.2
  • Penalties per match 0.14
  • Matches 28

Team strength

Ararat-ArmeniaUniversitatea Craiova
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
7 Current StrengthIn forecast 22
8 AttackIn forecast 20
8 DefenceIn forecast 27
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Ararat-Armenia

Attack—
Defense risk—

Universitatea Craiova

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Ararat-ArmeniaUniversitatea Craiova
— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
— Goals concededVia Att/Def —
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
— Scored inContext —
— Clean sheetsContext —
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
— Yellow cardsContext —
— Red cardsContext —
This league season, per match
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
— xGVia Att/Def 1.13
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57
— Goals minus xGContext +0.37
90% Scored inContext 90%
20% Clean sheetsContext 20%
— ShotsContext 8.25
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.75
50% On target shareContext 33%
— Shots in the boxContext 5.33
— Box shareContext 48%
33% ConversionContext 15%
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext 10.75
— On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.25
— BlocksContext 4.00
— Goalkeeper savesContext 1.33
— Save rateContext 50%
46% PossessionIn forecast 48%
— PassesContext 367
— Accurate passesContext 287
— Pass accuracyContext 78%
— Team ratingContext 6.80
— FoulsContext 14.80
— Fouls sufferedContext 12.20
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Ararat-Armenia
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km3,521 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Universitatea Craiova
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,761 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Ararat-Armenia Universitatea Craiova
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 10Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 20 Aug7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 20 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,761 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways3,521 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 31 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one20—

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Ararat-Armenia Confirmed XI
4-3-3
98João Bravim(G)
16E. Grigoryan 43Bruno Wilson 47A. Malis 3J. Julio
70Benny 19K. Muradyan 2Hugo Oliveira
11Z. Banjaqui 91Sandro Lima 77A. Serobyan
Universitatea Craiova Confirmed XI
3-4-3
21I. Popescu(G)
6V. Screciu 24N. Stevanović 3O. Romanchuk
11N. Bancu 5A. Mekvabishvili 8Tudor Băluță 17C. Mora
10Ș. Baiaram 9A. Al Hamlawi 20A. Cicâldău

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Ararat-Armenia Absences are shown before kick-off
Universitatea Craiova Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Ararat-Armenia · Home No home games yet this season.
Universitatea Craiova · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Ararat-Armenia wins1 draws0 Universitatea Craiova wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 20 Aug 2026Universitatea Craiova1–1Ararat-Armenia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Ararat-ArmeniaUniversitatea CraiovaForecast
Scored per game 1.001.00
Conceded per game 1.001.00
Match goals 2.002.00
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 0%0%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 100%100%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games11
Ararat-ArmeniaUniversitatea CraiovaForecast
Scored per game 1.431.00
Conceded per game 1.291.33
Match goals 2.712.33
Over 1.5 100%67%
Over 2.5 43%33%
Over 3.5 14%33%
Both teams scored 57%67%
Clean sheets 29%0%
Failed to score 14%33%
Games73

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Ararat-ArmeniaUniversitatea CraiovaLeague
Corners
Corners won4.008.00
Corners conceded8.004.00
Match total12.0012.009.50
Over 8.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Over 9.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Over 10.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Cards
Cards0.004.00
Opponent cards4.000.00
Match total4.004.004.08
Over 3.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Over 4.50% 0/10% 0/1
Ararat-ArmeniaUniversitatea CraiovaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.003.40
Corners conceded7.334.80
Match total12.338.209.50
Over 8.567% 2/340% 2/5
Over 9.567% 2/340% 2/5
Over 10.567% 2/340% 2/5
Cards
Cards1.702.50
Opponent cards3.102.40
Match total4.804.904.08
Over 3.570% 7/1080% 8/10
Over 4.550% 5/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Donatas Rumsas Lithuania · 28 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.96league 3.83
Red cards0.21league 0.25
Cards 5+36%league 42%
Fouls24.4league 22.8
Penalties0.14league 0.50
Home wins36%league 58%
Ararat-Armenia

No previous matches with this referee.

Universitatea Craiova

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Ararat-Armenia1 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Universitatea Craiova1 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Ararat-Armenia10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
1 3 0-15
1 4 16-30
2 3 31-45
3 1 46-60
4 61-75
3 5 76-90
Universitatea Craiova10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
1 3 0-15
2 3 16-30
5 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 2 61-75
3 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.