AS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AS Roma were slight favourites.
AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 47). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Fiorentina. AS Roma had 9.1 days of rest, Fiorentina 8.3 and had to travel 234 km.
Away travel234 kmRest days9.1 · 8.3Matches / 14d1 · 2
AS Roma54%
Draw25%
Fiorentina21%
AS Roma56%
Draw24%
Fiorentina20%
AS Roma53%
Draw25%
Fiorentina21%
AS Roma46%
Draw27%
Fiorentina27%
AS Roma55%
Draw24%
Fiorentina21%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyLuca Zufferli
- Cards per match 2.9
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 38
Team strength
AS Roma
Fiorentina
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
72
AttackIn forecast
42
75
DefenceIn forecast
34
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFiorentina
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AS RomaFiorentina
1.41
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.12
0.85
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.32
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
79%
Scored inContext
74%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
12.71
ShotsContext
13.00
4.35
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.61
34%
On target shareContext
27%
9.16
Shots in the boxContext
8.21
71%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.07
OffsidesContext
2.25
9.91
Shots allowedContext
12.65
3.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.59
2.79
BlocksContext
3.35
3.06
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.06
77%
Save rateContext
69%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
475
PassesContext
423
397
Accurate passesContext
358
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.83
13.76
FoulsContext
12.00
13.76
Fouls sufferedContext
15.47
1.88
Yellow cardsContext
2.29
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.54
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
100%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.90
ShotsContext
12.80
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
32%
On target shareContext
33%
8.44
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
77%
Box shareContext
64%
17%
ConversionContext
11%
2.56
OffsidesContext
1.86
12.20
Shots allowedContext
12.50
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
2.90
BlocksContext
3.40
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
61%
Save rateContext
74%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
459
PassesContext
414
374
Accurate passesContext
346
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.91
13.40
FoulsContext
12.00
14.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AS Roma
Rest9.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km609 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fiorentina
Rest8.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel234 km1,373 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AS Roma |
Fiorentina |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.1Serie A 2025-2026, 25 Apr | 8.3Serie A 2025-2026, 26 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 234 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 609 km | 1,373 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
22Hermoso
5O. Ndicka
23G. Mancini
43Wesley
17K. Koné
61N. Pisilli
19M. Çelik
4B. Cristante
18M. Soulé
14D. Malen
Fiorentina
Confirmed XI
43David de Gea(G)
21R. Gosens
6L. Ranieri
5M. Pongračić
2Dodô
27C. Ndour
44N. Fagioli
4M. Brescianini
19M. Solomon
10A. Guðmundsson
17J. Harrison
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AS Roma
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fiorentina
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AS Roma+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Fiorentina-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
AS Roma · Home
2.12points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-3-3
- Scored
- 1.59
- Conceded
- 0.59
Fiorentina · Away
1.06points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-6-7
- Scored
- 1.06
- Conceded
- 1.47
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | AS Roma | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Pisa | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A | W 1–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Inter | L 2–5 AL 0–1 H | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Lecce | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Como | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Genoa | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Juventus | D 3–3 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Cremonese | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A | W 4–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Napoli | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 AL 1–3 H |
| Cagliari | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Udinese | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | L 0–3 AW 5–1 H |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Torino | W 2–0 AL 0–1 H | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Sassuolo | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Parma | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Verona | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Lazio | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Points | 58 of 99 · 1.76 per game | 37 of 99 · 1.12 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
4 AS Roma wins2 draws3 Fiorentina wins
Goals per game1.44 – 1.56
Over 2.556%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets22% · 11%
- 5 Oct 2025Fiorentina1–2AS Roma
- 4 May 2025AS Roma1–0Fiorentina
- 27 Oct 2024Fiorentina5–1AS Roma
- 10 Mar 2024Fiorentina2–2AS Roma
- 10 Dec 2023AS Roma1–1Fiorentina
- 27 May 2023Fiorentina2–1AS Roma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AS Roma | Fiorentina | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.41 | 1.12 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.85 | 1.32 | |
| Match goals | 2.26 | 2.44 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 62% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 35% | 53% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 35% | 62% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 26% | |
| Games | 34 | 34 |
| AS Roma | Fiorentina | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 1.80 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AS Roma | Fiorentina | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.94 | 4.45 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.35 | 4.61 | |
| Match total | 8.29 | 9.06 | 8.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 15/34 | 58% 19/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 32% 11/34 | 52% 17/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 26% 9/34 | 27% 9/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.97 | 2.41 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.09 | 2.32 | |
| Match total | 4.06 | 4.73 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 20/34 | 71% 24/34 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 13/34 | 62% 21/34 | |
| AS Roma | Fiorentina | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 8.50 | 8.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.70 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luca Zufferli Italy · 38 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.76league 3.70
Red cards0.11league 0.18
Cards 5+26%league 35%
Fouls23.7league 24.8
Penalties0.32league 0.28
Home wins53%league 40%
AS Roma5 with this referee
Record3-0-2
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- L7 Dec 25A · Cagliari0–12
- W23 Aug 25H · Bologna1–01
- W9 Feb 25A · Venezia1–03
- W17 Jan 25H · Genoa3–11
- L25 Aug 24H · Empoli1–20
Fiorentina5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D8 Mar 26H · Parma0–02
- L13 Sep 25H · Napoli1–30
- W18 May 25H · Bologna3–24
- W10 Nov 24H · Verona3–11
- W13 May 24H · Monza2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AS Roma34 games · scored 48 · conceded 29
7
5
0-15
7
16-30
8
5
31-45
7
7
46-60
12
3
61-75
7
9
76-90
Fiorentina33 games · scored 37 · conceded 43
3
7
0-15
7
5
16-30
4
5
31-45
10
9
46-60
7
7
61-75
6
10
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 18 · conceded 18
3
2
0-15
1
16-30
6
2
31-45
4
7
46-60
4
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
Fiorentina10 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
