AS Roma vs Fiorentina – 24 Aug 2026

Serie A Gameweek 1 Mon, Aug 24 · 19:45 Stadio Olimpico, Roma

AS Roma

4–0Full time

Fiorentina

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AS Roma were clear favourites.

AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AS Roma. AS Roma had 92 days of rest, Fiorentina 94 and had to travel 234 km. Weather to note: heat stress.

Away travel234 kmRest days92 · 94Matches / 14d0 · 0

AS Roma61%

Draw21%

Fiorentina17%

Expected goals 1.98 – 0.95

AS Roma58%

Draw23%

Fiorentina19%

Expected goals 1.85 – 0.97

AS Roma62%

Draw21%

Fiorentina17%

Expected goals 1.99 – 0.94

AS Roma54%

Draw23%

Fiorentina23%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.07

AS Roma61%

Draw22%

Fiorentina18%

Expected goals 1.94 – 0.95

Over 2.5 56% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Roma)

28°CMainly clear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 4 km/h
Humidity 62%

Heat stress

Referee · ItalyMatteo Marcenaro

Cards per match 5.1
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 49

Team strength

AS Roma

Fiorentina

71 L90 StrengthIn forecast 49

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

72 AttackIn forecast 42

75 DefenceIn forecast 34

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AS Roma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fiorentina

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AS Roma

Fiorentina

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.68 xGVia Att/Def 0.83

0.84 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

+0.62 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

100% Scored inContext 60%

60% Clean sheetsContext 50%

14.00 ShotsContext 9.80

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.80

37% On target shareContext 29%

10.70 Shots in the boxContext 6.30

76% Box shareContext 64%

16% ConversionContext 8%

2.11 OffsidesContext 1.57

9.30 Shots allowedContext 15.10

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

2.44 BlocksContext 3.30

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.10

64% Save rateContext 80%

57% PossessionIn forecast 47%

524 PassesContext 400

447 Accurate passesContext 334

85% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.86

11.80 FoulsContext 11.20

14.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AS Roma

Rest92 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fiorentina

Rest94 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel234 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AS Roma	Fiorentina
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	92Serie A 2025-2026, 24 May	94Serie A 2025-2026, 22 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	234 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	4.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AS Roma Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

99M. Svilar(G)

22Hermoso 5O. Ndicka 23G. Mancini

43Wesley 17K. Koné 4B. Cristante 77Emanuele Lulli

86Rodrigo Mora 21P. Dybala

14D. Malen

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Fiorentina Confirmed XI

4-3-2-1

43David de Gea(G)

17João Mário 6L. Ranieri 3R. Drăgușin 2Dodô

4M. Brescianini 44N. Fagioli 27C. Ndour

14A. Atta 30Franco Mastantuono

32Mateo Pellegrino

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AS Roma Absences are shown before kick-off

Fiorentina Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AS Roma-0.3 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Fiorentina+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

AS Roma · Home No home games yet this season.

Fiorentina · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

5 AS Roma wins2 draws3 Fiorentina wins

Goals per game1.70 – 1.40 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets30% · 10%

4 May 2026AS Roma4–0Fiorentina
5 Oct 2025Fiorentina1–2AS Roma
4 May 2025AS Roma1–0Fiorentina
27 Oct 2024Fiorentina5–1AS Roma
10 Mar 2024Fiorentina2–2AS Roma
10 Dec 2023AS Roma1–1Fiorentina

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AS Roma	Fiorentina	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.94
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	56%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	53%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	AS Roma	Fiorentina	Forecast
Scored per game	2.30	1.10
Conceded per game	1.20	0.80
Match goals	3.50	1.90	2.94
Over 1.5	90%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	20%	56%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	53%
Clean sheets	60%	50%
Failed to score	0%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AS Roma	Fiorentina	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.22
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.22
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	AS Roma	Fiorentina	League
Corners
Corners won	5.90	3.50
Corners conceded	4.50	4.30
Match total	10.40	7.80	9.22
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.30
Opponent cards	2.30	1.80
Match total	4.00	4.10	3.22
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Matteo Marcenaro Italy · 49 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.80league 3.22

Red cards0.29league 0.00

Cards 5+63%league 11%

Fouls23.6league 23.9

Penalties0.22league 0.00

Home wins53%league 22%

AS Roma7 with this referee

Record4-2-1 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.9 Pens for · against2 · 0

D18 Apr 26H · Atalanta1–11
W9 Feb 26H · Cagliari2–02
W10 Jan 26H · Sassuolo2–03
L3 Nov 24A · Verona2–32
D1 Apr 24A · Lecce0–02

Fiorentina7 with this referee

Record4-0-3 Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.7 Pens for · against3 · 1

L30 Nov 25A · Atalanta0–23
W25 May 25A · Udinese3–22
L23 Dec 24H · Udinese1–22
W22 Sep 24H · Lazio2–13
W28 Apr 24H · Sassuolo5–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.