AS Roma vs Inter – 19 Sep 2026

Serie A Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 19 · 17:00 Stadio Olimpico, Roma

AS Roma 1st · 12 pts · 4 played WWWW

2–2Full time

Inter 2nd · 12 pts · 4 played WWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AS Roma were slight favourites.

Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 75). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for AS Roma. AS Roma had 5 days of rest, Inter 4.9 and had to travel 479 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel479 kmRest days5 · 4.9Matches / 14d3 · 3

AS Roma45%

Draw22%

Inter33%

Expected goals 1.86 – 1.55

AS Roma36%

Draw26%

Inter38%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.35

AS Roma45%

Draw22%

Inter33%

Expected goals 1.82 – 1.54

AS Roma37%

Draw23%

Inter41%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.74

AS Roma45%

Draw23%

Inter32%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.45

Over 2.5 66% Both score 66% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Roma)

28°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 11 km/h
Humidity 50%

Warm

Referee · ItalyDavide Massa

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.19
Matches 120

Team strength

AS Roma

Inter

75 L90 StrengthIn forecast 84

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

72 AttackIn forecast 91

75 DefenceIn forecast 73

90 Form indexContext 85

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AS Roma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Inter

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AS Roma

Inter

3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.25

0.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

2.82 xGVia Att/Def 2.65

0.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.82

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.60

100% Scored inContext 100%

75% Clean sheetsContext 25%

21.25 ShotsContext 24.75

7.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.00

37% On target shareContext 32%

15.50 Shots in the boxContext 17.75

75% Box shareContext 72%

14% ConversionContext 13%

4.00 OffsidesContext 1.67

7.00 Shots allowedContext 9.75

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

1.00 BlocksContext 2.25

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

83% Save rateContext 67%

60% PossessionIn forecast 66%

563 PassesContext 634

493 Accurate passesContext 573

88% Pass accuracyContext 90%

7.29 Team ratingContext 7.23

13.00 FoulsContext 6.50

9.25 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00

1.25 Yellow cardsContext 1.25

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

2.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

0.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

2.38 xGVia Att/Def 2.13

0.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.02

+0.22 Goals minus xGContext +0.37

100% Scored inContext 100%

70% Clean sheetsContext 30%

16.00 ShotsContext 18.80

6.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50

39% On target shareContext 35%

11.80 Shots in the boxContext 13.80

74% Box shareContext 75%

16% ConversionContext 13%

2.78 OffsidesContext 1.83

7.70 Shots allowedContext 10.50

2.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.75

2.14 BlocksContext 2.70

2.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

82% Save rateContext 68%

58% PossessionIn forecast 64%

535 PassesContext 606

467 Accurate passesContext 550

87% Pass accuracyContext 91%

7.13 Team ratingContext 7.05

13.10 FoulsContext 8.40

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AS Roma WWWDW

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km3,794 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

Form 90 · 13 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · +3.0 vs expected

W14 SepA · Torino2–02.1 xPts
D10 SepA · Fenerbahce1–11.7 xPts
W5 SepH · Atalanta2–12.1 xPts
W31 AugA · Lecce4–02.1 xPts
W24 AugH · Fiorentina4–02.0 xPts

Inter WWWLW

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel479 km2,376 km in 14d

Schedule load26%Moderate

Form 85 · 12 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected

W14 SepH · Udinese5–32.4 xPts
L8 SepA · Real Madrid1–20.8 xPts
W5 SepH · Napoli3–22.0 xPts
W30 AugA · Cagliari1–01.9 xPts
W22 AugH · Monza4–12.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AS Roma	Inter
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 25	Moderate · 26
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5Serie A 2026-2027, 14 Sep	4.9Serie A 2026-2027, 14 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	479 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,794 km	2,376 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	21.8	21

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AS Roma Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

99M. Svilar(G)

22Hermoso 26L. Balerdi 23G. Mancini

20N. Molina 17K. Koné 4B. Cristante 43Wesley

18M. Soulé 21P. Dybala

14D. Malen

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Inter Confirmed XI

3-1-4-2

1Josep Martínez(G)

95A. Bastoni 25M. Akanji 31Y. Bisseck

7P. Zieliński

32F. Dimarco 21C. Jones 23N. Barella 17A. Diouf

9M. Thuram 10L. Martínez

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AS Roma Absences are shown before kick-off

Inter Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AS Roma+0.5 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Inter-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

AS Roma · Home 3.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 0.50

Inter · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

2 AS Roma wins0 draws8 Inter wins

Goals per game0.80 – 2.10 Over 2.550% Both scored40% Clean sheets10% · 50%

5 Apr 2026Inter5–2AS Roma
18 Oct 2025AS Roma0–1Inter
27 Apr 2025Inter0–1AS Roma
20 Oct 2024AS Roma0–1Inter
10 Feb 2024AS Roma2–4Inter
29 Oct 2023Inter1–0AS Roma

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AS Roma	Inter	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	3.25
Conceded per game	0.25	1.50
Match goals	3.25	4.75	3.41
Over 1.5	100%	75%
Over 2.5	75%	75%	66%
Over 3.5	50%	75%
Both teams scored	25%	75%	66%
Clean sheets	75%	25%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	4	4

	AS Roma	Inter	Forecast
Scored per game	2.60	2.50
Conceded per game	0.40	1.40
Match goals	3.00	3.90	3.41
Over 1.5	100%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	66%
Over 3.5	40%	50%
Both teams scored	30%	70%	66%
Clean sheets	70%	30%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AS Roma	Inter	League
Corners
Corners won	6.25	7.25
Corners conceded	1.75	4.25
Match total	8.00	11.50	9.60
Over 8.5	50% 2/4	75% 3/4
Over 9.5	25% 1/4	75% 3/4
Over 10.5	25% 1/4	75% 3/4
Cards
Cards	1.25	1.25
Opponent cards	1.00	1.75
Match total	2.25	3.00	3.17
Over 3.5	25% 1/4	25% 1/4
Over 4.5	0% 0/4	0% 0/4

	AS Roma	Inter	League
Corners
Corners won	5.70	6.80
Corners conceded	3.10	3.60
Match total	8.80	10.40	9.60
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.40
Opponent cards	2.10	1.40
Match total	3.70	2.80	3.17
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Davide Massa Italy · 120 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.44league 3.09

Red cards0.29league 0.02

Cards 5+50%league 19%

Fouls24.9league 22.3

Penalties0.19league 0.07

Home wins37%league 42%

AS Roma14 with this referee

Record2-4-8 Cards · opp.3.8 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds4

L15 Mar 26A · Como1–23
L30 Nov 25H · Napoli0–14
L18 Oct 25H · Inter0–14
L24 Nov 24A · Napoli0–13
L20 Oct 24H · Inter0–12

Inter10 with this referee

Record8-1-1 Cards · opp.2.9 · 2.9 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

W12 Apr 26A · Como4–37
W1 Feb 26A · Cremonese2–00
W18 Oct 25A · AS Roma1–03
W23 May 25A · Como2–03
W16 Mar 25A · Atalanta2–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.