Athletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Athletic Club were slight favourites.
Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Alaves. Athletic Club had 6.9 days of rest, Alaves 3.8 and had to travel 50 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel50 kmRest days6.9 · 3.8Matches / 14d2 · 3
Athletic Club46%
Draw25%
Alaves29%
Athletic Club48%
Draw25%
Alaves27%
Athletic Club46%
Draw25%
Alaves29%
Athletic Club38%
Draw25%
Alaves36%
Athletic Club46%
Draw25%
Alaves30%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bilbao)
25°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 9 km/h
- Humidity 43%
Referee · SpainVictor Garcia Verdura
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 45
Team strength
Athletic Club
Alaves
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
53
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
51
AttackIn forecast
48
64
DefenceIn forecast
55
60
Form indexContext
53
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Athletic ClubAlaves
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.83
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.62
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
80%
Scored inContext
83%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
14.00
ShotsContext
14.17
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.17
31%
On target shareContext
37%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
68%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
4.50
OffsidesContext
4.60
11.00
Shots allowedContext
10.17
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.83
2.00
BlocksContext
3.00
4.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
81%
Save rateContext
74%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
452
PassesContext
327
378
Accurate passesContext
260
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.94
10.60
FoulsContext
13.67
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.60
ShotsContext
13.10
4.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
32%
On target shareContext
38%
9.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
72%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.67
OffsidesContext
4.00
9.70
Shots allowedContext
10.50
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.38
1.88
BlocksContext
2.90
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
67%
Save rateContext
74%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
406
PassesContext
297
330
Accurate passesContext
229
81%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.20
FoulsContext
13.80
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Athletic Club
LLWWD
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 60 · 7 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +0.6 vs expected
Alaves
DWWLL
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel50 km229 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 53 · 7 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Athletic Club |
Alaves |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9La Liga 2026-2027, 12 Sep | 3.8La Liga 2026-2027, 15 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 50 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 229 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20.9 | 21 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
17Yuri
14A. Laporte
4Aitor Paredes
31J. Louis-Jean
18Mikel Jauregizar
16Ruíz de Galarreta
10Nico Williams
8Oihan Sancet
23Robert Navarro
9I. Williams
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
21A. Rebbach
2N. Valentini
16V. Koski
17Jonny
14F. Tenaglia
19Pablo Ibáñez
6Ander Guevara
23C. Benavídez
9M. Díaz
15L. Boyé
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Athletic Club
Absences are shown before kick-off
Alaves
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Athletic Club-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Alaves+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Athletic Club · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Alaves · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
5 Athletic Club wins3 draws2 Alaves wins
Goals per game1.10 – 0.50
Over 2.510%
Both scored20%
Clean sheets60% · 40%
- 2 May 2026Alaves2–4Athletic Club
- 13 Sep 2025Athletic Club0–1Alaves
- 11 May 2025Athletic Club1–0Alaves
- 15 Dec 2024Alaves1–1Athletic Club
- 16 Mar 2024Athletic Club2–0Alaves
- 22 Sep 2023Alaves0–2Athletic Club
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Athletic Club | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.83 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 17% | |
| Games | 5 | 6 |
| Athletic Club | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Athletic Club | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.40 | 4.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 5.17 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 10.00 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 4/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 4/5 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.83 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Athletic Club | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.67 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 11.78 | 10.20 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 5.20 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Victor Garcia Verdura Spain · 45 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.53league 4.25
Red cards0.22league 0.26
Cards 5+38%league 52%
Fouls25.0league 24.9
Penalties0.22league 0.34
Home wins38%league 44%
Athletic Club5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W21 Apr 26H · Osasuna1–03
- D28 Feb 26A · Rayo Vallecano1–13
- L15 May 24A · Celta Vigo1–20
- D12 Feb 24A · Almeria0–01
- W6 Oct 23H · Almeria3–02
Alaves8 with this referee
Record0-4-4
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.6
Pens for · against2 · 2
- D11 Apr 26A · Real Sociedad3–33
- L14 Dec 25H · Real Madrid1–22
- L26 Oct 25A · Rayo Vallecano0–13
- D30 Aug 25H · Atletico Madrid1–12
- L14 Apr 24A · Granada CF0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Athletic Club5 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Alaves6 games · scored 11 · conceded 6
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
4
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
1
0-15
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
