Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid – 5 Sep 2026

La Liga Gameweek 4 Sat, Sep 5 · 15:15 San Mamés Barria, Bilbao

Athletic Club 13th · 3 pts · 3 played LLW

3–0Full time

Atletico Madrid 4th · 7 pts · 3 played WDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 53). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Athletic Club. Athletic Club had 5.8 days of rest, Atletico Madrid 6.8 and had to travel 323 km. Weather to note: heat stress.

Away travel323 kmRest days5.8 · 6.8Matches / 14d3 · 2

Athletic Club36%

Draw25%

Atletico Madrid39%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.49

Athletic Club28%

Draw25%

Atletico Madrid47%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.56

Athletic Club37%

Draw25%

Atletico Madrid39%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.46

Athletic Club29%

Draw24%

Atletico Madrid47%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.67

Athletic Club36%

Draw25%

Atletico Madrid39%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.49

Over 2.5 56% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bilbao)

31°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 10 km/h
Humidity 45%

Heat stress

Referee · SpainJosé Luis Munuera Montero

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 46

Team strength

Athletic Club

Atletico Madrid

53 L90 StrengthIn forecast 78

53 Current StrengthIn forecast 81

51 AttackIn forecast 82

64 DefenceIn forecast 87

49 Form indexContext 74

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Athletic Club

Attack—

Defense risk—

Atletico Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Athletic Club

Atletico Madrid

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.33

1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.43 xGVia Att/Def 0.88

1.80 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

-0.43 Goals minus xGContext +1.45

67% Scored inContext 100%

33% Clean sheetsContext 33%

13.33 ShotsContext 15.33

7.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

38% On target shareContext 33%

8.67 Shots in the boxContext 7.67

64% Box shareContext 53%

8% ConversionContext 15%

— OffsidesContext 2.00

12.33 Shots allowedContext 12.67

5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.33 BlocksContext 4.00

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

75% Save rateContext 75%

47% PossessionIn forecast 54%

419 PassesContext 524

344 Accurate passesContext 456

82% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.76 Team ratingContext 7.14

11.33 FoulsContext 15.00

12.33 Fouls sufferedContext 14.67

2.33 Yellow cardsContext 2.33

0.33 Red cardsContext 0.33

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.37

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.03

70% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.40 ShotsContext 14.30

4.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

35% On target shareContext 29%

8.80 Shots in the boxContext 9.10

71% Box shareContext 67%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.17 OffsidesContext 2.11

9.30 Shots allowedContext 13.50

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44

2.00 BlocksContext 4.00

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.63

60% Save rateContext 74%

45% PossessionIn forecast 51%

380 PassesContext 473

304 Accurate passesContext 406

80% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.68 Team ratingContext 6.93

12.70 FoulsContext 11.80

9.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Athletic Club LLW

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km1,908 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 49 · 3 pts vs 3.1 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected

W30 AugA · Celta Vigo2–01.1 xPts
L27 AugA · Barcelona0–20.4 xPts
L22 AugH · Sevilla1–31.7 xPts

Atletico Madrid WDW

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel323 km781 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 74 · 7 pts vs 4.0 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected

W29 AugA · Sevilla3–11.4 xPts
D23 AugH · Villarreal2–21.7 xPts
W19 AugH · Malaga2–02.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Athletic Club	Atletico Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.8La Liga 2026-2027, 30 Aug	6.8La Liga 2026-2027, 29 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	323 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,908 km	781 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	4.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Athletic Club Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Unai Simón(G)

17Yuri 14A. Laporte 5Yeray 12Jesús Areso

24Beñat Gerenabarrena 16Ruíz de Galarreta

10Nico Williams 8Oihan Sancet 23Robert Navarro

9I. Williams

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Atletico Madrid Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13J. Oblak(G)

22Álex Grimaldo 17D. Hancko 18Marc Pubill 14Marcos Llorente

11A. Lookman 23M. Hjulmand 8Pablo Barrios 20G. Simeone

10Álex Baena 7K. Lee

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Athletic Club Absences are shown before kick-off

Atletico Madrid Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Athletic Club-0.6 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Atletico Madrid+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Athletic Club · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.00

Atletico Madrid · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Athletic Club	Atletico Madrid
Sevilla	L 1–3 H	W 3–1 A
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

3 Athletic Club wins1 draws6 Atletico Madrid wins

Goals per game0.80 – 1.00 Over 2.520% Both scored20% Clean sheets40% · 50%

25 Apr 2026Atletico Madrid3–2Athletic Club
6 Dec 2025Athletic Club1–0Atletico Madrid
1 Mar 2025Atletico Madrid1–0Athletic Club
31 Aug 2024Athletic Club0–1Atletico Madrid
27 Apr 2024Atletico Madrid3–1Athletic Club
16 Dec 2023Athletic Club2–0Atletico Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Athletic Club	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.33
Conceded per game	1.67	1.00
Match goals	2.67	3.33	2.91
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	33%	67%	56%
Over 3.5	33%	67%
Both teams scored	33%	67%	59%
Clean sheets	33%	33%
Failed to score	33%	0%
Games	3	3

	Athletic Club	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.80
Conceded per game	1.80	1.50
Match goals	3.10	3.30	2.91
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	56%
Over 3.5	40%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	59%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Athletic Club	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	7.33	4.33
Corners conceded	6.33	2.67
Match total	13.66	7.00	10.70
Over 8.5	100% 3/3	0% 0/3
Over 9.5	100% 3/3	0% 0/3
Over 10.5	100% 3/3	0% 0/3
Cards
Cards	2.67	2.67
Opponent cards	2.00	2.33
Match total	4.67	5.00	4.53
Over 3.5	33% 1/3	100% 3/3
Over 4.5	33% 1/3	67% 2/3

	Athletic Club	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	6.56	5.56
Corners conceded	4.89	3.89
Match total	11.45	9.45	10.70
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.50
Opponent cards	1.90	1.80
Match total	3.70	4.30	4.53
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · José Luis Munuera Montero Spain · 46 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.26league 4.34

Red cards0.28league 0.19

Cards 5+46%league 47%

Fouls25.1league 25.5

Penalties0.20league 0.34

Home wins39%league 53%

Athletic Club8 with this referee

Record4-2-2 Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.9 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L7 Mar 26H · Barcelona0–12
D3 Jan 26A · Osasuna1–13
L1 Nov 25A · Real Sociedad2–32
D23 Sep 25H · Girona1–10
W11 May 25H · Alaves1–01

Atletico Madrid6 with this referee

Record4-1-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.8 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds1

W2 May 26A · Valencia2–03
L22 Mar 26A · Real Madrid2–34
W13 Sep 25H · Villarreal2–02
D19 Dec 23H · Getafe3–33
W8 Oct 23H · Real Sociedad2–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.