Athletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Athletic Club were slight favourites.
Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Athletic Club. Athletic Club had 7.1 days of rest, Elche 4.9 and had to travel 587 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel587 kmRest days7.1 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Athletic Club59%
Draw21%
Elche20%
Athletic Club55%
Draw24%
Elche22%
Athletic Club60%
Draw21%
Elche19%
Athletic Club51%
Draw23%
Elche26%
Athletic Club59%
Draw21%
Elche20%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bilbao)
24°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 12 km/h
- Humidity 60%
Referee · SpainManuel Jesus Orellana Cid
- Cards per match 6.3
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 12
Team strength
Athletic Club
Elche
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
53
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
51
AttackIn forecast
39
64
DefenceIn forecast
51
66
Form indexContext
21
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisElche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Athletic ClubElche
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.00
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
75%
Scored inContext
75%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.75
ShotsContext
14.00
6.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.25
37%
On target shareContext
45%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
66%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
—
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.00
Shots allowedContext
11.25
5.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
2.00
BlocksContext
2.00
4.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
81%
Save rateContext
46%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
411
PassesContext
533
337
Accurate passesContext
460
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.45
10.50
FoulsContext
13.25
10.75
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.80
ShotsContext
11.30
4.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
34%
On target shareContext
39%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.11
71%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.00
Shots allowedContext
10.30
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
1.88
BlocksContext
2.11
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
64%
Save rateContext
54%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
389
PassesContext
473
313
Accurate passesContext
403
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.69
12.30
FoulsContext
14.50
8.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.80
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Athletic Club
LLWW
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km974 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 66 · 6 pts vs 4.1 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
Elche
DLLL
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel587 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 21 · 1 pts vs 4.8 for an average club · -3.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Athletic Club |
Elche |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1La Liga 2026-2027, 5 Sep | 4.9La Liga 2026-2027, 7 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 587 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 974 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 3.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
17Yuri
14A. Laporte
5Yeray
12Jesús Areso
24Beñat Gerenabarrena
16Ruíz de Galarreta
10Nico Williams
8Oihan Sancet
23Robert Navarro
9I. Williams
Elche
Confirmed XI
1M. Dituro(G)
3R. Revivo
23Víctor Chust
5F. Redondo
2Buba Sangaré
20Tete Morente
12Gonzalo Villar
47J. Morcillo
11Germán Valera
10F. Buonanotte
14Fer Niño
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Athletic Club
Absences are shown before kick-off
Elche
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Athletic Club-1.0 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Elche+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Athletic Club · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Elche · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Athletic Club | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | L 0–2 A | L 0–5 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Athletic Club wins2 draws2 Elche wins
Goals per game1.13 – 0.75
Over 2.538%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets38% · 50%
- 20 Feb 2026Athletic Club2–1Elche
- 19 Oct 2025Elche0–0Athletic Club
- 28 May 2023Athletic Club0–1Elche
- 11 Sep 2022Elche1–4Athletic Club
- 3 Apr 2022Athletic Club2–1Elche
- 16 Aug 2021Elche0–0Athletic Club
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Athletic Club | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 4.25 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 75% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 75% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Athletic Club | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.20 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Athletic Club | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.25 | 6.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.75 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 13.00 | 10.00 | 10.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 4/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 4/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 4/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.75 | 3.50 | 4.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Athletic Club | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.33 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 11.66 | 8.22 | 10.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.90 | 4.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Manuel Jesus Orellana Cid Spain · 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.58league 4.32
Red cards0.67league 0.27
Cards 5+75%league 50%
Fouls29.7league 25.0
Penalties0.50league 0.30
Home wins67%league 50%
Athletic ClubNo previous matches with this referee.
ElcheNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Athletic Club4 games · scored 6 · conceded 5
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Elche4 games · scored 5 · conceded 12
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
4
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
1
5
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
