Athletic Club vs Girona – 23 Sep 2025

La Liga Gameweek 6 Tue, Sep 23 · 18:00 San Mamés Barria, Bilbao

Athletic Club 7th · 9 pts · 5 played WWWLL

1–1Full time

Girona 20th · 1 pts · 5 played LLLDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Athletic Club were clear favourites.

Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 35). Absences weigh more on Girona. Athletic Club had 2.9 days of rest, Girona 3.2 and had to travel 491 km.

Away travel491 kmRest days2.9 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Athletic Club65%

Draw21%

Girona14%

Expected goals 2.01 – 0.80

Athletic Club65%

Draw21%

Girona14%

Expected goals 2.07 – 0.86

Athletic Club63%

Draw22%

Girona14%

Expected goals 1.93 – 0.80

Athletic Club58%

Draw24%

Girona18%

Expected goals 1.79 – 0.90

Athletic Club67%

Draw20%

Girona13%

Expected goals 2.16 – 0.86

Over 2.5 53% Both score 48% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bilbao)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJosé Luis Munuera Montero

Cards per match 4.9
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 26

Team strength

Athletic Club

Girona

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 35

51 Current StrengthIn forecast 45

51 AttackIn forecast 49

64 DefenceIn forecast 64

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Athletic Club

Attack—

Defense risk—

Girona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Athletic Club

Girona

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.40

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 3.00

1.41 xGVia Att/Def 0.64

0.70 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.37

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

60% Scored inContext 40%

20% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.40 ShotsContext 9.80

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

34% On target shareContext 35%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 6.20

62% Box shareContext 62%

10% ConversionContext 4%

1.33 OffsidesContext 1.67

8.40 Shots allowedContext 16.00

3.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

2.25 BlocksContext 3.20

2.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

69% Save rateContext 52%

50% PossessionIn forecast 46%

413 PassesContext 400

336 Accurate passesContext 336

81% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.50

11.60 FoulsContext 8.20

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.40 Red cardsContext 0.40

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30

1.20 xGVia Att/Def 0.85

0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.03

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.25

60% Scored inContext 50%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.30 ShotsContext 9.10

3.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.78

29% On target shareContext 37%

7.10 Shots in the boxContext 5.60

63% Box shareContext 59%

9% ConversionContext 7%

2.83 OffsidesContext 2.00

8.60 Shots allowedContext 14.60

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.70

2.50 BlocksContext 3.00

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

67% Save rateContext 61%

48% PossessionIn forecast 47%

390 PassesContext 430

314 Accurate passesContext 367

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.69

13.70 FoulsContext 10.50

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Athletic Club

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km944 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Girona

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel491 km1,905 km in 14d

Schedule load19%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Athletic Club	Girona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 19
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.9La Liga 2025-2026, 20 Sep	3.2La Liga 2025-2026, 20 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	491 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	944 km	1,905 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.1	3.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Athletic Club Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Unai Simón(G)

19Adama Boiro 14A. Laporte 4Aitor Paredes 2Andoni Gorosabel

18Mikel Jauregizar 6Mikel Vesga

22Nico Serrano 8Oihan Sancet 9I. Williams

11Gorka Guruzeta

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Girona Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13P. Gazzaniga(G)

24Álex Moreno 17D. Blind 16Alejandro Francés 2Hugo Rincón

22J. Solís 23Iván Martín

18A. Ounahi 6D. van de Beek 21Bryan Gil

19V. Vanat

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Athletic Club Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Girona Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Athletic Club+1.8 pp
Draw-0.9 pp
Girona-0.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Athletic Club · Home 2.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-1
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.00

Girona · Away 0.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Athletic Club	Girona
Rayo Vallecano	W 1–0 H	L 1–3 H
Sevilla	W 3–2 H	L 0–2 H
Points	6 of 6 · 3.00 per game	0 of 6 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Athletic Club wins1 draws3 Girona wins

Goals per game1.83 – 1.67 Over 2.583% Both scored83% Clean sheets17% · 0%

8 Feb 2025Athletic Club3–0Girona
6 Oct 2024Girona2–1Athletic Club
19 Feb 2024Athletic Club3–2Girona
27 Nov 2023Girona1–1Athletic Club
26 Feb 2023Athletic Club2–3Girona
4 Nov 2022Girona2–1Athletic Club

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Athletic Club	Girona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	0.40
Conceded per game	1.20	3.00
Match goals	2.40	3.40	2.81
Over 1.5	60%	100%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	53%
Over 3.5	20%	60%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	48%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	40%	60%
Games	5	5

	Athletic Club	Girona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	0.40
Conceded per game	1.20	3.00
Match goals	2.40	3.40	2.81
Over 1.5	60%	100%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	53%
Over 3.5	20%	60%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	48%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	40%	60%
Games	5	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Athletic Club	Girona	League
Corners
Corners won	6.80	4.40
Corners conceded	4.40	5.40
Match total	11.20	9.80	9.35
Over 8.5	100% 5/5	60% 3/5
Over 9.5	80% 4/5	40% 2/5
Over 10.5	80% 4/5	40% 2/5
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.20
Opponent cards	2.00	1.20
Match total	4.00	3.40	4.19
Over 3.5	60% 3/5	20% 1/5
Over 4.5	20% 1/5	20% 1/5

	Athletic Club	Girona	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	3.80
Corners conceded	3.90	5.40
Match total	9.40	9.20	9.35
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.60
Opponent cards	1.80	1.30
Match total	3.20	2.90	4.19
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · José Luis Munuera Montero Spain · 26 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.69league 3.86

Red cards0.23league 0.29

Cards 5+58%league 39%

Fouls25.3league 24.4

Penalties0.15league 0.33

Home wins38%league 49%

Athletic Club4 with this referee

Record4-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

W11 May 25H · Alaves1–01
W25 May 24A · Rayo Vallecano1–01
W13 Jan 24H · Real Sociedad2–11
W19 Aug 23A · Osasuna2–05

Girona4 with this referee

Record1-2-1 Cards · opp.2.8 · 4.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

D24 Apr 25A · Leganes1–12
D10 May 24A · Alaves2–22
L16 Mar 24A · Getafe0–14
W4 Nov 23A · Osasuna4–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.