Athletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Athletic Club were clear favourites.
Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 27). Absences weigh more on Athletic Club. Athletic Club had 7.8 days of rest, Oviedo 5.7 and had to travel 236 km.
Away travel236 kmRest days7.8 · 5.7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Athletic Club63%
Draw22%
Oviedo15%
Athletic Club66%
Draw21%
Oviedo13%
Athletic Club65%
Draw22%
Oviedo13%
Athletic Club56%
Draw25%
Oviedo19%
Athletic Club64%
Draw21%
Oviedo15%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bilbao)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainCesar Soto Grado
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 30
Team strength
Athletic Club
Oviedo
62
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
51
AttackIn forecast
23
64
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Athletic ClubOviedo
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.64
1.18
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.73
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
0.76
0.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.87
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
55%
Scored inContext
36%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
12.27
ShotsContext
8.18
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.73
33%
On target shareContext
33%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
4.73
64%
Box shareContext
56%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.40
9.09
Shots allowedContext
16.55
3.55
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.73
2.67
BlocksContext
4.55
2.55
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.18
72%
Save rateContext
77%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
424
PassesContext
373
347
Accurate passesContext
308
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.73
FoulsContext
12.27
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.09
1.64
Yellow cardsContext
2.09
0.18
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.80
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
50%
Scored inContext
40%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.10
ShotsContext
8.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.60
33%
On target shareContext
31%
8.33
Shots in the boxContext
4.90
64%
Box shareContext
56%
7%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.56
9.70
Shots allowedContext
15.70
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.40
2.56
BlocksContext
4.60
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.90
65%
Save rateContext
77%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
431
PassesContext
378
355
Accurate passesContext
313
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.50
FoulsContext
12.70
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Athletic Club
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km154 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Oviedo
Rest5.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel236 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Athletic Club |
Oviedo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8La Liga 2025-2026, 1 Nov | 5.7La Liga 2025-2026, 3 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 236 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 154 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.1 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
17Yuri
14A. Laporte
3Dani Vivian
2Andoni Gorosabel
18Mikel Jauregizar
16Ruíz de Galarreta
10Nico Williams
44Selton Sánchez
7Álex Berenguer
11Gorka Guruzeta
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
25Javi López
16David Carmo
4David Costas
22Nacho Vidal
11S. Colombatto
20L. Dendoncker
7I. Chaira
5Alberto Reina
9Federico Viñas
23S. Rondón
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Athletic Club
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Oviedo
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Athletic Club-1.6 pp
- Draw+0.5 pp
- Oviedo+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Athletic Club · Home
1.67points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-2
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.00
Oviedo · Away
0.80points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Athletic Club | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | L 2–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Getafe | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Elche | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Villarreal | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Girona | D 1–1 H | D 3–3 A |
| Valencia | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 2 of 18 · 0.33 per game | 7 of 18 · 1.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Athletic Club | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.64 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.18 | 1.73 | |
| Match goals | 2.18 | 2.36 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 55% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 36% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 27% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 45% | 64% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Athletic Club | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 2.40 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Athletic Club | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.36 | 3.18 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.27 | 6.36 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 9.54 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 7/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 5/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 5/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.82 | 2.36 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.55 | 1.36 | |
| Match total | 4.37 | 3.72 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 6/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 27% 3/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Athletic Club | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 8.78 | 9.40 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.70 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cesar Soto Grado Spain · 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.83league 4.00
Red cards0.30league 0.25
Cards 5+63%league 43%
Fouls23.9league 24.6
Penalties0.23league 0.36
Home wins47%league 49%
Athletic Club2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against2 · 0
- D4 May 25A · Real Sociedad0–02
- W27 Aug 23H · Real Betis4–24
OviedoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Athletic Club11 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
Oviedo10 games · scored 7 · conceded 19
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
3
6
76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
6
76-90
Oviedo9 games · scored 7 · conceded 17
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
