Athletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Athletic Club were slight favourites.
Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 54). Athletic Club had 8 days of rest, Rayo Vallecano 10 and had to travel 323 km.
Away travel323 kmRest days8 · 10Matches / 14d1 · 1
Athletic Club55%
Draw25%
Rayo Vallecano20%
Athletic Club56%
Draw24%
Rayo Vallecano20%
Athletic Club55%
Draw25%
Rayo Vallecano20%
Athletic Club47%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano26%
Athletic Club56%
Draw24%
Rayo Vallecano20%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bilbao)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJuan Martinez Munuera
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 24
Team strength
Athletic Club
Rayo Vallecano
72
L90 StrengthIn forecast
54
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
58
51
AttackIn forecast
61
64
DefenceIn forecast
60
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Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Athletic ClubRayo Vallecano
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
60%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.20
ShotsContext
14.50
2.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
24%
On target shareContext
35%
5.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
64%
Box shareContext
53%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
3.60
OffsidesContext
2.40
11.10
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
3.44
BlocksContext
3.50
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.10
68%
Save rateContext
64%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
357
PassesContext
452
281
Accurate passesContext
375
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.95
14.60
FoulsContext
12.30
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Athletic Club
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rayo Vallecano
Rest10 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel323 km1,146 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Athletic Club |
Rayo Vallecano |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8La Liga 2025-2026, 17 Aug | 10La Liga 2025-2026, 15 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 323 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,146 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
17Yuri
4Aitor Paredes
3Dani Vivian
12Jesús Areso
16Ruíz de Galarreta
18Mikel Jauregizar
10Nico Williams
7Álex Berenguer
9I. Williams
21Maroan Sannadi
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
13A. Batalla(G)
3Pep Chavarría
5Luiz Felipe
24F. Lejeune
2A. Rațiu
18Álvaro García
17Unai López
6P. Ciss
7Isi Palazón
4Pedro Díaz
19Jorge de Frutos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Athletic Club
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rayo Vallecano
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Athletic Club+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Rayo Vallecano+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Athletic Club · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Rayo Vallecano · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
6 Athletic Club wins1 draws1 Rayo Vallecano wins
Goals per game1.88 – 0.75
Over 2.563%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 13%
- 13 Apr 2025Athletic Club3–1Rayo Vallecano
- 1 Dec 2024Rayo Vallecano1–2Athletic Club
- 25 May 2024Rayo Vallecano0–1Athletic Club
- 2 Dec 2023Athletic Club4–0Rayo Vallecano
- 5 Mar 2023Rayo Vallecano0–0Athletic Club
- 17 Sep 2022Athletic Club3–2Rayo Vallecano
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Athletic Club | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Athletic Club | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Athletic Club | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 10.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 6.00 | 8.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 2.00 | 3.81 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Athletic Club | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 10.60 | 8.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.10 | 3.81 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Martinez Munuera Spain · 24 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.50league 3.39
Red cards0.21league 0.33
Cards 5+46%league 28%
Fouls25.5league 22.7
Penalties0.42league 0.39
Home wins54%league 44%
Athletic Club4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L20 Apr 25A · Real Madrid0–12
- L27 Apr 24A · Atletico Madrid1–32
- W20 Dec 23H · Las Palmas1–01
- L22 Oct 23A · Barcelona0–13
Rayo Vallecano1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.5.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D5 Nov 23A · Real Madrid0–05
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Athletic Club1 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Rayo Vallecano1 games · scored 3 · conceded 1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
6
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
