Athletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Athletic Club were slight favourites.
Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 45). Athletic Club had ? days of rest, Sevilla ? and had to travel 703 km.
Away travel703 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Athletic Club59%
Draw24%
Sevilla17%
Athletic Club61%
Draw23%
Sevilla17%
Athletic Club59%
Draw24%
Sevilla17%
Athletic Club51%
Draw26%
Sevilla23%
Athletic Club60%
Draw23%
Sevilla17%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bilbao)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainFrancisco Hernandez Maeso
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 21
Team strength
Athletic Club
Sevilla
72
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
51
AttackIn forecast
48
64
DefenceIn forecast
57
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Athletic ClubSevilla
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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—
FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
60%
Scored inContext
70%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.00
ShotsContext
12.40
2.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
23%
On target shareContext
36%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
63%
Box shareContext
66%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
3.17
OffsidesContext
1.78
10.60
Shots allowedContext
10.90
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.33
BlocksContext
2.80
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
70%
Save rateContext
57%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
365
PassesContext
396
289
Accurate passesContext
327
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.87
15.30
FoulsContext
15.20
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Athletic Club
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sevilla
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel703 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Athletic Club |
Sevilla |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 703 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
17Yuri
4Aitor Paredes
3Dani Vivian
12Jesús Areso
18Mikel Jauregizar
16Ruíz de Galarreta
10Nico Williams
7Álex Berenguer
9I. Williams
21Maroan Sannadi
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
13Ø. Nyland(G)
2J. Carmona Navarro
4Kike Salas
32A. López Gallo
16Juanlu Sánchez
6N. Gudelj
27S. Idumbo
20M. Sow
18L. Agoumé
10D. Lukébakio
9A. Adams
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Athletic Club
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sevilla
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Athletic Club-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Sevilla+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Athletic Club · Home
No home games yet this season.
Sevilla · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
5 Athletic Club wins2 draws3 Sevilla wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.60
Over 2.510%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets40% · 30%
- 16 Mar 2025Sevilla0–1Athletic Club
- 29 Sep 2024Athletic Club1–1Sevilla
- 19 May 2024Athletic Club2–0Sevilla
- 4 Jan 2024Sevilla0–2Athletic Club
- 27 Apr 2023Athletic Club0–1Sevilla
- 8 Oct 2022Sevilla1–1Athletic Club
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Athletic Club | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 49% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Athletic Club | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 49% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Athletic Club | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 10.33 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 3.67 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Athletic Club | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 8.10 | 10.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 5.50 | 3.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francisco Hernandez Maeso Spain · 21 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.38league 3.00
Red cards0.05league 0.67
Cards 5+48%league 33%
Fouls24.1league 22.8
Penalties0.24league 0.33
Home wins48%league 33%
Athletic ClubNo previous matches with this referee.
Sevilla2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.3.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L17 Mar 24H · Celta Vigo1–24
- W5 Feb 24A · Rayo Vallecano2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Athletic ClubSevillaAthletic Club10 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
2
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
