Athletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Athletic Club were slight favourites.
Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 51). Absences weigh more on Valencia. Athletic Club had 7.9 days of rest, Valencia 8 and had to travel 472 km.
Away travel472 kmRest days7.9 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Athletic Club47%
Draw28%
Valencia25%
Athletic Club48%
Draw26%
Valencia26%
Athletic Club46%
Draw28%
Valencia26%
Athletic Club40%
Draw29%
Valencia31%
Athletic Club48%
Draw26%
Valencia26%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bilbao)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMiguel Angel Ortiz Arias
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 43
Team strength
Athletic Club
Valencia
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
51
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
51
AttackIn forecast
39
64
DefenceIn forecast
52
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisValencia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Athletic ClubValencia
1.18
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.09
1.47
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.47
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
68%
Scored inContext
74%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
13.24
ShotsContext
11.35
4.55
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.22
33%
On target shareContext
27%
9.03
Shots in the boxContext
7.53
67%
Box shareContext
64%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.24
9.29
Shots allowedContext
11.71
4.15
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
2.33
BlocksContext
2.94
2.84
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
66%
Save rateContext
68%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
409
PassesContext
405
330
Accurate passesContext
333
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.79
FoulsContext
12.09
10.76
Fouls sufferedContext
11.59
2.09
Yellow cardsContext
1.76
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
70%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.60
ShotsContext
12.80
4.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.78
38%
On target shareContext
27%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.78
68%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.67
OffsidesContext
3.00
9.00
Shots allowedContext
11.20
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
2.25
BlocksContext
2.56
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
60%
Save rateContext
72%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
398
PassesContext
400
320
Accurate passesContext
332
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.77
13.40
FoulsContext
12.70
8.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Athletic Club
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km101 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Valencia
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel472 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Athletic Club |
Valencia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9La Liga 2025-2026, 2 May | 8La Liga 2025-2026, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 472 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 101 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
17Yuri
14A. Laporte
5Yeray
2Andoni Gorosabel
30Alejandro Rego Mora
18Mikel Jauregizar
10Nico Williams
8Oihan Sancet
23Robert Navarro
11Gorka Guruzeta
Valencia
Confirmed XI
1S. Dimitrievski(G)
14José Gayà
24E. Cömert
5César Tárrega
20R. Saravia
2G. Rodríguez
18Pepelu
11Luis Rioja
8Javi Guerra
16Diego López
9Hugo Duro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Athletic Club
Absences are shown before kick-off
Valencia
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Athletic Club+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Valencia-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Athletic Club · Home
1.71points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-2-6
- Scored
- 1.24
- Conceded
- 1.12
Valencia · Away
0.76points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-10
- Scored
- 0.82
- Conceded
- 1.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Athletic Club | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Alaves | W 4–2 AL 0–1 H | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 2–3 AW 1–0 H | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Getafe | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Real Betis | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Girona | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Barcelona | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A | L 0–6 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Elche | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Oviedo | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Levante | W 4–2 HW 2–0 A | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | D 1–1 HL 2–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Sevilla | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Mallorca | L 2–3 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Espanyol | L 1–2 H | W 3–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 HL 1–4 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–3 H | L 0–2 HL 0–4 A |
| Points | 44 of 99 · 1.33 per game | 36 of 99 · 1.09 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
4 Athletic Club wins4 draws2 Valencia wins
Goals per game0.90 – 0.80
Over 2.520%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets40% · 30%
- 20 Sep 2025Valencia2–0Athletic Club
- 18 May 2025Valencia0–1Athletic Club
- 28 Aug 2024Athletic Club1–0Valencia
- 20 Jan 2024Valencia1–0Athletic Club
- 29 Oct 2023Athletic Club2–2Valencia
- 11 Feb 2023Valencia1–2Athletic Club
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Athletic Club | Valencia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.18 | 1.09 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.47 | 1.47 | |
| Match goals | 2.65 | 2.56 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 41% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 53% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 26% | |
| Games | 34 | 34 |
| Athletic Club | Valencia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.50 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Athletic Club | Valencia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.47 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.76 | 4.93 | |
| Match total | 9.23 | 9.93 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 22/34 | 63% 19/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 16/34 | 50% 15/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 12/34 | 50% 15/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.26 | 1.79 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.38 | |
| Match total | 4.26 | 4.17 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 20/34 | 65% 22/34 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 15/34 | 47% 16/34 | |
| Athletic Club | Valencia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 9.22 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.10 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias Spain · 43 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.81league 4.29
Red cards0.26league 0.27
Cards 5+47%league 47%
Fouls23.4league 24.6
Penalties0.21league 0.36
Home wins40%league 49%
Athletic Club3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L20 Sep 25A · Valencia0–22
- W10 Mar 24A · Las Palmas2–03
- D11 Dec 23A · Granada CF1–12
Valencia6 with this referee
Record2-4-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W15 Feb 26A · Levante2–02
- D10 Jan 26H · Elche1–12
- W20 Sep 25H · Athletic Club2–01
- D26 May 24A · Celta Vigo2–20
- D30 Mar 24H · Mallorca0–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Athletic Club33 games · scored 40 · conceded 48
3
7
0-15
5
2
16-30
9
10
31-45
5
9
46-60
5
8
61-75
13
12
76-90
Valencia34 games · scored 37 · conceded 50
4
2
0-15
3
7
16-30
2
7
31-45
8
11
46-60
8
10
61-75
12
13
76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
4
76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
