Atletico Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Atletico Madrid were clear favourites.
Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (86 vs 43). Atletico Madrid had 13.8 days of rest, Alaves 8 and had to travel 284 km.
Away travel284 kmRest days13.8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Atletico Madrid73%
Draw18%
Alaves9%
Atletico Madrid74%
Draw17%
Alaves9%
Atletico Madrid73%
Draw18%
Alaves9%
Atletico Madrid66%
Draw21%
Alaves13%
Atletico Madrid74%
Draw17%
Alaves9%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainGuillermo Cuadra Fernandez
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 36
Team strength
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
86
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
82
AttackIn forecast
48
87
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Atletico MadridAlaves
1.79
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.84
0.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.26
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.24
95%
Scored inContext
63%
37%
Clean sheetsContext
16%
12.63
ShotsContext
11.32
5.42
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.58
43%
On target shareContext
32%
8.63
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
68%
Box shareContext
65%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
2.47
OffsidesContext
2.93
10.63
Shots allowedContext
11.42
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.63
2.82
BlocksContext
3.65
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
73%
Save rateContext
66%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
500
PassesContext
427
429
Accurate passesContext
347
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.73
11.16
FoulsContext
15.11
10.32
Fouls sufferedContext
13.84
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.21
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
-0.46
90%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.90
ShotsContext
11.20
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
43%
On target shareContext
32%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
66%
Box shareContext
66%
14%
ConversionContext
6%
2.67
OffsidesContext
3.33
12.60
Shots allowedContext
13.00
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.40
BlocksContext
3.78
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
71%
Save rateContext
60%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
480
PassesContext
428
405
Accurate passesContext
351
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.68
11.20
FoulsContext
14.50
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Atletico Madrid
Rest13.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km705 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Alaves
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel284 km777 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Atletico Madrid |
Alaves |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.8La Liga 2025-2026, 4 Jan | 8La Liga 2025-2026, 10 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 284 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 705 km | 777 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed XI
13J. Oblak(G)
3M. Ruggeri
17D. Hancko
18Marc Pubill
14Marcos Llorente
11T. Almada
5J. Cardoso
8Pablo Barrios
20G. Simeone
9A. Sørloth
19J. Alvarez
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
24Víctor Parada
5Jon Pacheco
14F. Tenaglia
17Jonny
8Antonio Blanco
10Carles Aleñá
18Jon Guridi
19Pablo Ibáñez
7Carlos Vicente
11Toni Martínez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Atletico Madrid
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Alaves
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Atletico Madrid+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Alaves-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Atletico Madrid · Home
2.78points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-1-0
- Scored
- 2.44
- Conceded
- 0.78
Alaves · Away
0.44points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-7
- Scored
- 0.44
- Conceded
- 1.56
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Atletico Madrid | Alaves |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Girona | W 3–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Valencia | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Athletic Club | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Barcelona | L 1–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Getafe | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Levante | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Sevilla | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Real Betis | W 2–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Real Madrid | W 5–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 3–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Mallorca | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Elche | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Espanyol | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 37 of 54 · 2.06 per game | 18 of 54 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
5 Atletico Madrid wins2 draws2 Alaves wins
Goals per game1.33 – 0.89
Over 2.544%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets22% · 33%
- 30 Aug 2025Alaves1–1Atletico Madrid
- 3 May 2025Alaves0–0Atletico Madrid
- 23 Nov 2024Atletico Madrid2–1Alaves
- 21 Apr 2024Alaves2–0Atletico Madrid
- 29 Oct 2023Atletico Madrid2–1Alaves
- 2 Apr 2022Atletico Madrid4–1Alaves
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Atletico Madrid | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.79 | 0.84 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.89 | 1.26 | |
| Match goals | 2.68 | 2.11 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 58% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 42% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 16% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 53% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 37% | 16% | |
| Failed to score | 5% | 37% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Atletico Madrid | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.30 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Atletico Madrid | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.74 | 5.12 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.58 | 4.65 | |
| Match total | 10.32 | 9.77 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 74% 14/19 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 9/19 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 9/19 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.11 | 2.32 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.26 | 2.11 | |
| Match total | 4.37 | 4.43 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 13/19 | 74% 14/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 9/19 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Atletico Madrid | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 11.90 | 9.22 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.10 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez Spain · 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.75league 4.18
Red cards0.31league 0.28
Cards 5+64%league 47%
Fouls26.2league 24.6
Penalties0.42league 0.35
Home wins47%league 46%
Atletico Madrid2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W23 Nov 25A · Getafe1–04
- W21 Oct 23A · Celta Vigo3–02
Alaves3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W2 Nov 25H · Espanyol2–14
- D24 May 25H · Osasuna1–12
- W21 Aug 23H · Sevilla4–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Atletico Madrid19 games · scored 34 · conceded 17
9
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
5
4
61-75
9
5
76-90
Alaves19 games · scored 16 · conceded 24
3
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
5
61-75
5
6
76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 18 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 7 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
