Atletico Madrid vs Elche – 23 Aug 2025

La Liga Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 23 · 18:30 Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid

Atletico Madrid 16th · 0 pts · 1 played L

1–1Full time

Elche 12th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atletico Madrid were clear favourites.

Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 34). Atletico Madrid had 5.9 days of rest, Elche 4.9 and had to travel 352 km.

Away travel352 kmRest days5.9 · 4.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Atletico Madrid73%

Draw18%

Elche9%

Expected goals 2.30 – 0.70

Atletico Madrid74%

Draw17%

Elche9%

Expected goals 2.43 – 0.74

Atletico Madrid73%

Draw18%

Elche9%

Expected goals 2.31 – 0.70

Atletico Madrid66%

Draw21%

Elche13%

Expected goals 2.06 – 0.79

Atletico Madrid74%

Draw17%

Elche9%

Expected goals 2.42 – 0.74

Over 2.5 58% Both score 46% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainCesar Soto Grado

Cards per match 5.2
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 25

Team strength

Atletico Madrid

Elche

81 L90 StrengthIn forecast 34

81 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

82 AttackIn forecast 39

87 DefenceIn forecast 51

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atletico Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Elche

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atletico Madrid

Elche

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.95 xGVia Att/Def —

0.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

+0.25 Goals minus xGContext —

70% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.60 ShotsContext 12.30

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

44% On target shareContext 29%

9.67 Shots in the boxContext 9.40

68% Box shareContext 76%

16% ConversionContext 9%

2.13 OffsidesContext 3.25

8.20 Shots allowedContext 12.80

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

2.33 BlocksContext 4.14

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

71% Save rateContext 80%

56% PossessionIn forecast 58%

532 PassesContext 457

467 Accurate passesContext 379

88% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.10 Team ratingContext 6.99

10.70 FoulsContext 12.60

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atletico Madrid

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km995 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Elche

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel352 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atletico Madrid	Elche
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9La Liga 2025-2026, 17 Aug	4.9La Liga 2025-2026, 18 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	352 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	995 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atletico Madrid Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13J. Oblak(G)

3M. Ruggeri 17D. Hancko 24R. Le Normand 14Marcos Llorente

11T. Almada 8Pablo Barrios 5J. Cardoso 20G. Simeone

19J. Alvarez 9A. Sørloth

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Elche Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

1M. Dituro(G)

6Bigas 22D. Affengruber 18John Nwankwo

11Germán Valera 14Aleix Febas 8Marc Aguado 15Alvaro Núñez

30Rodrigo Mendoza

10Rafa Mir 20Á. Rodríguez

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atletico Madrid Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Elche Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Atletico Madrid-0.3 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Elche+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Atletico Madrid · Home No home games yet this season.

Elche · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

5 Atletico Madrid wins0 draws1 Elche wins

Goals per game1.50 – 0.33 Over 2.517% Both scored17% Clean sheets67% · 17%

14 May 2023Elche1–0Atletico Madrid
29 Dec 2022Atletico Madrid2–0Elche
11 May 2022Elche0–2Atletico Madrid
22 Aug 2021Atletico Madrid1–0Elche
1 May 2021Elche0–1Atletico Madrid
19 Dec 2020Atletico Madrid3–1Elche

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Atletico Madrid	Elche	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	3.00	2.00	3.01
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	58%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	46%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Atletico Madrid	Elche	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	3.00	2.00	3.01
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	58%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	46%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atletico Madrid	Elche	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	1.00
Corners conceded	1.00	3.00
Match total	4.00	4.00	8.55
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.00
Opponent cards	3.00	1.00
Match total	6.00	2.00	3.91
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1

	Atletico Madrid	Elche	League
Corners
Corners won	5.20	6.20
Corners conceded	2.90	7.20
Match total	8.10	13.40	8.55
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	80% 8/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.60
Opponent cards	1.60	1.90
Match total	3.00	3.50	3.91
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Cesar Soto Grado Spain · 25 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.96league 3.33

Red cards0.28league 0.42

Cards 5+64%league 42%

Fouls24.3league 23.3

Penalties0.24league 0.33

Home wins48%league 50%

Atletico Madrid3 with this referee

Record3-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.7 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

W3 Mar 24H · Real Betis2–11
W31 Jan 24H · Rayo Vallecano2–10
W23 Dec 23H · Sevilla1–08

Elche

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.