Atletico Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.
Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 46). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Girona. Atletico Madrid had 4.9 days of rest, Girona 3 and had to travel 573 km.
Away travel573 kmRest days4.9 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Atletico Madrid55%
Draw25%
Girona21%
Atletico Madrid66%
Draw21%
Girona14%
Atletico Madrid56%
Draw24%
Girona19%
Atletico Madrid47%
Draw27%
Girona26%
Atletico Madrid56%
Draw24%
Girona20%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Muñiz Ruiz
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.43
- Matches 42
Team strength
Atletico Madrid
Girona
79
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
81
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
82
AttackIn forecast
49
87
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGirona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Atletico MadridGirona
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.06
1.08
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.47
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
86%
Scored inContext
75%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
12.86
ShotsContext
10.56
5.06
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
39%
On target shareContext
36%
8.97
Shots in the boxContext
6.86
68%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
2.53
OffsidesContext
2.48
11.00
Shots allowedContext
14.36
3.59
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.88
2.74
BlocksContext
3.67
2.73
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.55
71%
Save rateContext
72%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
499
PassesContext
463
427
Accurate passesContext
397
86%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.80
10.92
FoulsContext
10.44
9.61
Fouls sufferedContext
14.47
2.22
Yellow cardsContext
1.97
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.70
ShotsContext
12.40
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
31%
On target shareContext
27%
8.22
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
67%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.25
12.70
Shots allowedContext
13.30
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.44
3.30
BlocksContext
4.00
3.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.38
79%
Save rateContext
76%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
426
PassesContext
502
356
Accurate passesContext
439
84%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.90
11.50
FoulsContext
9.20
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
15.60
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Atletico Madrid
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km634 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Girona
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel573 km1,146 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Atletico Madrid |
Girona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.9La Liga 2025-2026, 12 May | 3La Liga 2025-2026, 14 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 573 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 634 km | 1,146 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 2 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed XI
13J. Oblak(G)
3M. Ruggeri
17D. Hancko
24R. Le Normand
18Marc Pubill
10Álex Baena
6Koke
21O. Vargas
20G. Simeone
22A. Lookman
7A. Griezmann
Girona
Confirmed XI
13P. Gazzaniga(G)
24Álex Moreno
12Vitor Reis
16Alejandro Francés
4Arnau Martínez
23Iván Martín
20A. Witsel
3Joel Roca
18A. Ounahi
21Bryan Gil
15V. Tsyhankov
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Atletico Madrid
Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Girona
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Atletico Madrid-2.0 pp
- Draw+0.8 pp
- Girona+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Atletico Madrid · Home
2.39points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 14-1-3
- Scored
- 2.11
- Conceded
- 0.94
Girona · Away
0.94points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-8-7
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Atletico Madrid | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Valencia | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Athletic Club | W 3–2 HL 0–1 A | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Elche | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Sevilla | L 1–2 AW 3–0 H | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Barcelona | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Real Madrid | L 2–3 AW 5–2 H | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Getafe | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Oviedo | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H |
| Espanyol | W 4–2 HL 1–2 A | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–3 AW 3–2 H | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Real Betis | L 0–1 HW 2–0 A | L 2–3 HD 1–1 A |
| Levante | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 AL 0–4 H |
| Mallorca | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Alaves | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 HL 0–5 A |
| Points | 63 of 105 · 1.80 per game | 40 of 105 · 1.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
6 Atletico Madrid wins0 draws1 Girona wins
Goals per game2.71 – 0.86
Over 2.586%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets57% · 0%
- 21 Dec 2025Girona0–3Atletico Madrid
- 25 May 2025Girona0–4Atletico Madrid
- 25 Aug 2024Atletico Madrid3–0Girona
- 13 Apr 2024Atletico Madrid3–1Girona
- 3 Jan 2024Girona4–3Atletico Madrid
- 13 Mar 2023Girona0–1Atletico Madrid
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Atletico Madrid | Girona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.06 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.08 | 1.47 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.53 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 47% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 61% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 25% | |
| Games | 36 | 36 |
| Atletico Madrid | Girona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.20 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 30% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Atletico Madrid | Girona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.14 | 4.26 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.23 | 4.91 | |
| Match total | 10.37 | 9.17 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 74% 26/35 | 53% 18/34 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 20/35 | 41% 14/34 | |
| Over 10.5 | 49% 17/35 | 38% 13/34 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.36 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.11 | 1.97 | |
| Match total | 4.47 | 4.11 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 23/36 | 44% 16/36 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 15/36 | 31% 11/36 | |
| Atletico Madrid | Girona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 8.60 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.00 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Muñiz Ruiz Spain · 42 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.81league 4.29
Red cards0.38league 0.27
Cards 5+60%league 47%
Fouls24.5league 24.5
Penalties0.43league 0.36
Home wins55%league 48%
Atletico Madrid3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W21 Feb 26H · Espanyol4–20
- L6 Dec 25A · Athletic Club0–12
- W29 Oct 23H · Alaves2–13
Girona2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.3.5 · 3.5
Pens for · against4 · 1
- D25 Oct 25H · Oviedo3–34
- W24 May 24H · Granada CF7–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Atletico Madrid36 games · scored 60 · conceded 39
13
5
0-15
6
6
16-30
8
7
31-45
8
3
46-60
11
8
61-75
14
10
76-90
Girona36 games · scored 38 · conceded 53
5
4
0-15
5
8
16-30
6
7
31-45
1
14
46-60
9
8
61-75
12
12
76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
3
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Girona10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
