Atletico Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Atletico Madrid
3rd · 41 pts · 20 played
LWWDW
3–0Full time
Mallorca
16th · 21 pts · 20 played
WDLLW
Our take
Atletico Madrid were clear favourites.
Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (86 vs 47). Atletico Madrid had 6.9 days of rest, Mallorca 7.9 and had to travel 549 km.
Away travel549 kmRest days6.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Atletico Madrid71%
Draw19%
Mallorca10%
Atletico Madrid72%
Draw18%
Mallorca10%
Atletico Madrid71%
Draw19%
Mallorca10%
Atletico Madrid64%
Draw22%
Mallorca14%
Atletico Madrid72%
Draw18%
Mallorca10%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJose Maria Sanchez Martinez
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 46
Team strength
Atletico MadridMallorca
86
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
81
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
82
AttackIn forecast
50
87
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Atletico MadridMallorca
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.85
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
95%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
15%
13.15
ShotsContext
10.10
5.45
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.95
41%
On target shareContext
39%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.32
68%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.33
10.45
Shots allowedContext
13.90
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.74
2.78
BlocksContext
4.15
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.65
73%
Save rateContext
73%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
503
PassesContext
371
432
Accurate passesContext
295
86%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.20
FoulsContext
10.90
10.05
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
1.95
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.00
ShotsContext
9.50
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
40%
On target shareContext
40%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.90
66%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.14
12.50
Shots allowedContext
13.80
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.89
3.40
BlocksContext
4.50
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
72%
Save rateContext
71%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
483
PassesContext
364
409
Accurate passesContext
285
85%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.30
FoulsContext
10.50
9.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Atletico Madrid
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Mallorca
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel549 km1,098 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Atletico Madrid |
Mallorca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 18 Jan | 7.9La Liga 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 549 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,098 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 8.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed XI
13J. Oblak(G)
17D. Hancko
2J. Giménez
18Marc Pubill
14Marcos Llorente
10Álex Baena
5J. Cardoso
8Pablo Barrios
20G. Simeone
19J. Alvarez
9A. Sørloth
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
1Leo Román(G)
22J. Mojica
24M. Valjent
27David López
23Pablo Maffeo
10Darder
5Omar Mascarell
12Samú Costa
6Antonio Sánchez
7V. Muriqi
18Mateo Joseph
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Atletico Madrid
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Mallorca
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Atletico Madrid+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Mallorca-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Atletico Madrid · Home
2.80points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-1-0
- Scored
- 2.30
- Conceded
- 0.70
Mallorca · Away
0.50points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-7
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.70
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Atletico Madrid | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Alaves | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Girona | W 3–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Valencia | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Athletic Club | L 0–1 A | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Barcelona | L 1–3 A | L 0–3 H |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Getafe | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Levante | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Sevilla | W 3–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Real Betis | W 2–0 A | L 0–3 A |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Real Madrid | W 5–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 3–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Elche | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Espanyol | L 1–2 A | L 2–3 A |
| Points | 40 of 57 · 2.11 per game | 20 of 57 · 1.05 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
5 Atletico Madrid wins1 draws3 Mallorca wins
Goals per game1.11 – 0.67
Over 2.522%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets44% · 22%
- 21 Sep 2025Mallorca1–1Atletico Madrid
- 1 Feb 2025Atletico Madrid2–0Mallorca
- 10 Nov 2024Mallorca0–1Atletico Madrid
- 4 May 2024Mallorca0–1Atletico Madrid
- 25 Nov 2023Atletico Madrid1–0Mallorca
- 26 Apr 2023Atletico Madrid3–1Mallorca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Atletico Madrid | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.85 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.70 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 70% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 15% | |
| Failed to score | 5% | 20% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Atletico Madrid | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.80 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Atletico Madrid | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.70 | 3.32 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 6.68 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 10.00 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 15/20 | 79% 15/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 10/20 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 10/20 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.05 | 2.35 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.35 | |
| Match total | 4.25 | 4.70 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 13/20 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 9/20 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Atletico Madrid | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 7.22 | |
| Match total | 10.70 | 10.22 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.60 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez Spain · 46 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.52league 4.20
Red cards0.35league 0.28
Cards 5+50%league 47%
Fouls24.6league 24.6
Penalties0.26league 0.36
Home wins50%league 47%
Atletico Madrid6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- W10 May 25H · Real Sociedad4–00
- W25 May 24A · Real Sociedad2–05
- L17 Mar 24H · Barcelona0–34
- D4 Feb 24A · Real Madrid1–14
- L3 Dec 23A · Barcelona0–14
Mallorca2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L30 Aug 25A · Real Madrid1–20
- L13 Apr 24H · Real Madrid0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Atletico Madrid20 games · scored 35 · conceded 17
9
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
5
4
61-75
9
5
76-90
Mallorca20 games · scored 24 · conceded 30
4
6
0-15
3
6
16-30
3
8
31-45
2
46-60
6
1
61-75
8
7
76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
4
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
