Atletico Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Atletico Madrid
4th · 13 pts · 6 played
DWLWW
2–1Full time
Real Madrid
2nd · 15 pts · 6 played
WWLWW
Our take
Real Madrid were slight favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 78). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Real Madrid. Atletico Madrid had 3.9 days of rest, Real Madrid 4.8 and had to travel 0 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel0 kmRest days3.9 · 4.8Matches / 14d3 · 3
Atletico Madrid28%
Draw22%
Real Madrid50%
Atletico Madrid32%
Draw26%
Real Madrid42%
Atletico Madrid27%
Draw22%
Real Madrid50%
Atletico Madrid22%
Draw21%
Real Madrid58%
Atletico Madrid28%
Draw23%
Real Madrid49%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
Warm
30°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 7 km/h
- Humidity 22%
Referee · SpainMiguel Angel Ortiz Arias
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 49
Team strength
Atletico MadridReal Madrid
78
L90 StrengthIn forecast
89
81
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
82
AttackIn forecast
89
87
DefenceIn forecast
85
77
Form indexContext
89
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Atletico MadridReal Madrid
2.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.83
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.62
xGVia Att/Def
3.03
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.88
+0.71
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
83%
Scored inContext
83%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
16.83
ShotsContext
20.67
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.33
36%
On target shareContext
40%
10.17
Shots in the boxContext
14.83
61%
Box shareContext
72%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.20
10.00
Shots allowedContext
11.83
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
3.33
BlocksContext
3.33
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
70%
Save rateContext
73%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
554
PassesContext
548
482
Accurate passesContext
500
87%
Pass accuracyContext
91%
7.07
Team ratingContext
7.20
11.17
FoulsContext
8.83
12.83
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
2.50
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.82
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
90%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.00
ShotsContext
18.30
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.40
37%
On target shareContext
40%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
13.10
63%
Box shareContext
72%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.78
13.30
Shots allowedContext
12.10
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
3.90
BlocksContext
3.10
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
73%
Save rateContext
83%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
514
PassesContext
549
444
Accurate passesContext
497
86%
Pass accuracyContext
91%
6.98
Team ratingContext
7.14
10.80
FoulsContext
8.80
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
14.20
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Atletico Madrid
WLLWW
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,597 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 77 · 9 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · +2.0 vs expected
Real Madrid
WLWWW
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km704 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 89 · 12 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Atletico Madrid |
Real Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 25 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.9La Liga 2026-2027, 16 Sep | 4.8La Liga 2026-2027, 15 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,597 km | 704 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 6 | 1 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20 | 20.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed XI
13J. Oblak(G)
22Álex Grimaldo
17D. Hancko
21C. Romero
18Marc Pubill
10Álex Baena
5J. Cardoso
14Marcos Llorente
20G. Simeone
15J. David
7K. Lee
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
17Marc Cucurella
4D. Huijsen
16I. Konaté
24D. Dumfries
14A. Tchouaméni
8F. Valverde
7Vinícius
5J. Bellingham
15A. Güler
10K. Mbappé
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Atletico Madrid
Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Madrid
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Atletico Madrid+0.7 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Real Madrid-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Atletico Madrid · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Real Madrid · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Atletico Madrid | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | W 3–0 A | W 4–1 H |
| Malaga | W 2–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| Points | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 14 meetings
3 Atletico Madrid wins4 draws3 Real Madrid wins
Goals per game1.70 – 1.40
Over 2.550%
Both scored90%
Clean sheets10% · 0%
- 22 Mar 2026Real Madrid3–2Atletico Madrid
- 27 Sep 2025Atletico Madrid5–2Real Madrid
- 12 Mar 2025Atletico Madrid1–0Real Madrid
- 4 Mar 2025Real Madrid2–1Atletico Madrid
- 8 Feb 2025Real Madrid1–1Atletico Madrid
- 29 Sep 2024Atletico Madrid1–1Real Madrid
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Atletico Madrid | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.33 | 2.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 3.83 | 3.26 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 83% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Atletico Madrid | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 2.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.50 | 3.26 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 70% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Atletico Madrid | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 7.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 13.00 | 9.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.66 | 4.67 | 4.49 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Atletico Madrid | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 5.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 10.89 | 11.00 | 9.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.80 | 4.49 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias Spain · 49 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.84league 4.23
Red cards0.27league 0.25
Cards 5+47%league 52%
Fouls23.0league 24.9
Penalties0.22league 0.35
Home wins39%league 45%
Atletico Madrid1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W14 Mar 26H · Getafe1–03
Real MadridNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Atletico Madrid6 games · scored 14 · conceded 6
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
2
76-90
Real Madrid6 games · scored 17 · conceded 6
2
0-15
5
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 26 · conceded 9
5
0-15
6
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
