Auxerre vs Angers – 3 May 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 32 Sun, May 3 · 16:15 Stade de l’Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre

Auxerre 16th · 25 pts · 31 played WDDDL

3–1Full time

Angers 13th · 34 pts · 31 played LDLDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Auxerre were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Auxerre. Auxerre had 8.1 days of rest, Angers 7.9 and had to travel 311 km.

Away travel311 kmRest days8.1 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Auxerre50%

Draw27%

Angers23%

Expected goals 1.57 – 0.98

Auxerre48%

Draw26%

Angers26%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.11

Auxerre50%

Draw27%

Angers23%

Expected goals 1.54 – 0.96

Auxerre43%

Draw28%

Angers29%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.10

Auxerre51%

Draw26%

Angers23%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.03

Over 2.5 47% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Auxerre)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceEric Wattellier

Cards per match 3.3
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 96

Team strength

Auxerre

Angers

25 L90 StrengthIn forecast 20

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 19

39 AttackIn forecast 22

25 DefenceIn forecast 12

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Auxerre

Attack—

Defense risk—

Angers

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Auxerre

Angers

0.87 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.84

1.35 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.39

0.97 xGVia Att/Def 0.86

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

48% Scored inContext 61%

26% Clean sheetsContext 32%

10.16 ShotsContext 8.81

3.46 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.46

31% On target shareContext 36%

6.54 Shots in the boxContext 5.59

62% Box shareContext 59%

9% ConversionContext 10%

2.05 OffsidesContext 2.04

11.48 Shots allowedContext 13.84

4.45 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

3.07 BlocksContext 2.84

3.19 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90

72% Save rateContext 75%

44% PossessionIn forecast 42%

363 PassesContext 396

292 Accurate passesContext 329

81% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.74

13.23 FoulsContext 11.03

14.06 Fouls sufferedContext 10.87

1.94 Yellow cardsContext 1.42

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 31 and 31 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.40

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

0.88 xGVia Att/Def 0.73

1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.62

+0.42 Goals minus xGContext -0.33

60% Scored inContext 40%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.10 ShotsContext 8.20

3.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

33% On target shareContext 33%

6.67 Shots in the boxContext 5.75

62% Box shareContext 61%

13% ConversionContext 5%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.38

12.30 Shots allowedContext 13.80

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

3.40 BlocksContext 2.60

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.22

70% Save rateContext 72%

42% PossessionIn forecast 40%

336 PassesContext 369

266 Accurate passesContext 305

79% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.67

13.50 FoulsContext 11.30

14.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Auxerre

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km499 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Angers

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel311 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Auxerre	Angers
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 25 Apr	7.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 25 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	311 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	499 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.2	7.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Auxerre Confirmed XI

4-3-3

40T. De Percin(G)

14G. Mensah 24B. Okoh 20S. Diomandé 27L. Sy

5K. Danois 42E. Owusu 8N. Ahamada

19D. Namaso 9S. Mara 10L. Sinayoko

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Angers Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

12H. Koffi(G)

3J. Ekomié 21J. Lefort 4O. Camara 20Marius Louer

93H. Belkebla 8B. van den Boomen

7M. Sbaï 15P. Capelle 27L. Rao-Lisoa

35P. Peter

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Auxerre Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Angers Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Auxerre+0.4 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Angers-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Auxerre · Home 1.07points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 4-4-7
Scored: 0.87
Conceded: 1.00

Angers · Away 0.80points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 3-3-9
Scored: 0.60
Conceded: 1.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Auxerre	Angers
Lyon	L 2–3 AD 0–0 H	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A
Monaco	D 2–2 AL 1–2 H	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H
Nantes	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A	W 1–0 AW 4–1 H
LE Havre	D 1–1 AL 0–1 H	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A
Stade Brestois 29	W 3–0 HL 0–2 A	L 0–2 H
Marseille	L 0–1 AL 0–1 H	L 2–5 HD 2–2 A
Strasbourg	D 0–0 HL 0–3 A	L 0–5 A
Lorient	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H	L 0–2 AW 2–0 H
Rennes	L 0–3 HD 2–2 A	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Metz	W 3–1 AW 3–1 H	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A
Paris FC	D 0–0 HD 1–1 A	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
Toulouse	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H	W 1–0 HW 1–0 A
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–1 HL 0–2 A	L 0–3 HL 0–1 A
Lens	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H	L 1–5 AL 1–2 H
Lille	L 3–4 H	L 0–1 HL 0–1 A
Nice	L 1–3 A	L 0–2 HW 1–0 A
Points	25 of 90 · 0.83 per game	31 of 90 · 1.03 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 Auxerre wins2 draws2 Angers wins

Goals per game0.80 – 1.40 Over 2.520% Both scored40% Clean sheets20% · 40%

9 Nov 2025Angers2–0Auxerre
19 Jan 2025Angers2–0Auxerre
24 Nov 2024Auxerre1–0Angers
12 Feb 2023Angers1–1Auxerre
14 Aug 2022Auxerre2–2Angers

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Auxerre	Angers	Forecast
Scored per game	0.87	0.84
Conceded per game	1.35	1.39
Match goals	2.23	2.23	2.55
Over 1.5	58%	61%
Over 2.5	42%	29%	47%
Over 3.5	26%	16%
Both teams scored	39%	35%	50%
Clean sheets	26%	32%
Failed to score	52%	39%
Games	31	31

	Auxerre	Angers	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	0.40
Conceded per game	1.30	1.80
Match goals	2.60	2.20	2.55
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	30%	47%
Over 3.5	40%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	30%	50%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	40%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Auxerre	Angers	League
Corners
Corners won	4.48	3.50
Corners conceded	4.55	5.00
Match total	9.03	8.50	9.28
Over 8.5	55% 17/31	43% 13/30
Over 9.5	32% 10/31	30% 9/30
Over 10.5	26% 8/31	20% 6/30
Cards
Cards	2.16	1.45
Opponent cards	2.68	1.26
Match total	4.84	2.71	3.96
Over 3.5	77% 24/31	35% 11/31
Over 4.5	45% 14/31	10% 3/31

	Auxerre	Angers	League
Corners
Corners won	3.90	3.10
Corners conceded	4.90	5.60
Match total	8.80	8.70	9.28
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.40
Opponent cards	2.60	1.10
Match total	4.40	2.50	3.96
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Eric Wattellier France · 96 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.09league 3.68

Red cards0.22league 0.27

Cards 5+22%league 36%

Fouls20.4league 23.6

Penalties0.35league 0.37

Home wins50%league 46%

Auxerre8 with this referee

Record2-2-4 Cards · opp.1.1 · 1.0 Pens for · against3 · 0

W7 Dec 25H · Metz3–12
D19 Oct 25A · Rennes2–23
L14 May 23A · Stade Brestois 290–10
W16 Apr 23H · Nantes2–12
L19 Mar 23A · Strasbourg0–21

Angers5 with this referee

Record0-1-4 Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.2 Pens for · against0 · 0

L29 Sep 24H · Reims1–30
L21 Apr 23H · Paris Saint Germain1–20
D2 Apr 23H · Nice1–11
L11 Jan 23A · Paris Saint Germain0–22
L3 Apr 22A · Lyon2–31

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.