Auxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lens were slight favourites.
Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 28). Auxerre had 7 days of rest, Lens 6 and had to travel 298 km.
Away travel298 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Auxerre30%
Draw27%
Lens43%
Auxerre31%
Draw27%
Lens42%
Auxerre30%
Draw28%
Lens42%
Auxerre24%
Draw26%
Lens50%
Auxerre30%
Draw27%
Lens43%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Auxerre)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceFrançois Letexier
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 104
Team strength
Auxerre
Lens
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
55
39
AttackIn forecast
63
25
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AuxerreLens
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.83
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.97
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.64
67%
Scored inContext
50%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
9.83
ShotsContext
15.33
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.83
34%
On target shareContext
32%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.17
62%
Box shareContext
70%
7%
ConversionContext
9%
5.00
OffsidesContext
3.67
12.17
Shots allowedContext
13.33
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
3.40
BlocksContext
4.67
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
73%
Save rateContext
77%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
340
PassesContext
390
269
Accurate passesContext
321
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.06
12.67
FoulsContext
11.67
15.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.33
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.64
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
80%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.60
ShotsContext
14.20
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
37%
On target shareContext
31%
5.22
Shots in the boxContext
9.80
61%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
3.67
OffsidesContext
2.80
12.80
Shots allowedContext
12.20
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
2.89
BlocksContext
3.60
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
75%
Save rateContext
72%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
366
PassesContext
425
295
Accurate passesContext
355
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.06
12.20
FoulsContext
11.90
14.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Auxerre
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km296 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lens
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel298 km832 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Auxerre |
Lens |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 27 Sep | 6Ligue 1 2025-2026, 28 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 298 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 296 km | 832 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.8 | 14.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Auxerre
Confirmed XI
16D. Léon(G)
14G. Mensah
92C. Akpa
4F. Sierralta
29M. Senaya
7J. Casimir
19D. Namaso
5K. Danois
42E. Owusu
10L. Sinayoko
9S. Mara
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
20M. Sarr
6S. Baidoo
25P. Ganiou
14M. Udol
28A. Thomasson
8M. Sangaré
2R. Aguilar
22W. Saïd
10F. Thauvin
11O. Édouard
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Auxerre
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lens
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Auxerre-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Lens+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Auxerre · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.67
Lens · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Auxerre | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Auxerre wins1 draws2 Lens wins
Goals per game1.75 – 1.50
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 27 Apr 2025Lens0–4Auxerre
- 14 Dec 2024Auxerre2–2Lens
- 3 Jun 2023Auxerre1–3Lens
- 14 Jan 2023Lens1–0Auxerre
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Auxerre | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 0.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.17 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Auxerre | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 0.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.17 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Auxerre | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 7.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.83 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.83 | 13.60 | 9.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.83 | |
| Match total | 5.67 | 4.50 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 5/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Auxerre | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 11.00 | 9.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 5.10 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · François Letexier France · 104 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.08league 3.67
Red cards0.25league 0.33
Cards 5+48%league 39%
Fouls22.4league 24.5
Penalties0.32league 0.49
Home wins52%league 58%
Auxerre1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W24 Nov 24H · Angers1–04
Lens17 with this referee
Record6-6-5
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 3
Reds1
- W17 May 25H · Monaco4–01
- L11 Apr 25H · Reims0–21
- D28 Sep 24H · Nice0–03
- D6 Apr 24H · LE Havre1–12
- L25 Feb 24H · Monaco2–35
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Auxerre6 games · scored 4 · conceded 8
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Lens6 games · scored 8 · conceded 5
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
