Auxerre vs Lorient – 17 Aug 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 1 Sun, Aug 17 · 16:15 Stade de l’Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre

Auxerre

1–0Full time

Lorient

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Auxerre were slight favourites.

Auxerre were the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 22). Auxerre had ? days of rest, Lorient ? and had to travel 519 km.

Away travel519 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Auxerre48%

Draw26%

Lorient25%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.07

Auxerre49%

Draw26%

Lorient25%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.09

Auxerre48%

Draw26%

Lorient25%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.07

Auxerre41%

Draw27%

Lorient31%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.20

Auxerre49%

Draw26%

Lorient25%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.09

Over 2.5 49% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Auxerre)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceAbdelatif Kherradji

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 17

Team strength

Auxerre

Lorient

29 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

39 AttackIn forecast 28

25 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Auxerre

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lorient

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Auxerre

Lorient

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

1.02 xGVia Att/Def —

1.70 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

+0.38 Goals minus xGContext —

100% Scored inContext 50%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.20 ShotsContext 14.20

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.44

38% On target shareContext 35%

6.22 Shots in the boxContext 8.70

57% Box shareContext 61%

14% ConversionContext 7%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.44

14.80 Shots allowedContext 14.70

5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60

4.10 BlocksContext 2.60

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.11

78% Save rateContext 69%

44% PossessionIn forecast 48%

395 PassesContext 440

326 Accurate passesContext 365

83% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.88

12.00 FoulsContext 11.50

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Auxerre

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lorient

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel519 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Auxerre	Lorient
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	519 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Auxerre Confirmed XI

5-4-1

16D. Léon(G)

14G. Mensah 92C. Akpa 4F. Sierralta 3G. Osho 29M. Senaya

23I. Osman 5K. Danois 42E. Owusu 7J. Casimir

10L. Sinayoko

Lorient Confirmed XI

3-4-3

21B. Kamara(G)

2Igor Silva 3M. Talbi 5F. Mendy

43Arsène Kouassi 6L. Abergel 62A. Avom 93J. Mvuka

10P. Pagis 9M. Bamba 15A. Tosin

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Auxerre Absences are shown before kick-off

Lorient Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Auxerre+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Lorient+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Auxerre · Home No home games yet this season.

Lorient · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Auxerre wins0 draws1 Lorient wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

26 Feb 2023Lorient0–1Auxerre
16 Sep 2022Auxerre1–3Lorient

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Auxerre	Lorient	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.65
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	49%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	53%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Auxerre	Lorient	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.65
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	49%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	53%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Auxerre	Lorient	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	11.40
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.00
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Auxerre	Lorient	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	5.40
Corners conceded	6.33	5.00
Match total	11.33	10.40	11.40
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.20
Opponent cards	1.30	2.10
Match total	3.60	4.30	4.00
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Abdelatif Kherradji France · 17 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.59league 3.80

Red cards0.18league 0.20

Cards 5+29%league 60%

Fouls27.5league 23.4

Penalties0.35league 0.00

Home wins47%league 40%

Auxerre4 with this referee

Record0-1-3 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 1

L17 May 25A · Paris Saint Germain1–32
D14 Mar 25A · Nice1–13
L1 Feb 25A · Monaco2–42
L14 Sep 24H · Monaco0–33

Lorient

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.