Auxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Marseille were slight favourites.
Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 24). Absences weigh more on Marseille. Auxerre had 3 days of rest, Marseille 3 and had to travel 520 km.
Away travel520 kmRest days3 · 3Matches / 14d3 · 2
Auxerre25%
Draw25%
Marseille50%
Auxerre24%
Draw25%
Marseille51%
Auxerre23%
Draw25%
Marseille52%
Auxerre19%
Draw23%
Marseille58%
Auxerre25%
Draw26%
Marseille49%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Auxerre)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBenoît Bastien
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 107
Team strength
Auxerre
Marseille
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
39
AttackIn forecast
48
25
DefenceIn forecast
46
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMarseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AuxerreMarseille
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.89
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.63
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.20
ShotsContext
14.00
2.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
28%
On target shareContext
39%
5.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
60%
Box shareContext
65%
7%
ConversionContext
17%
3.25
OffsidesContext
1.44
12.30
Shots allowedContext
9.30
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.00
BlocksContext
2.75
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
71%
Save rateContext
74%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
364
PassesContext
595
291
Accurate passesContext
536
80%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.96
13.70
FoulsContext
12.10
14.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+1.04
60%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.20
ShotsContext
13.20
2.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
28%
On target shareContext
44%
5.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
60%
Box shareContext
61%
7%
ConversionContext
19%
3.25
OffsidesContext
1.75
12.30
Shots allowedContext
11.00
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.00
BlocksContext
2.78
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
71%
Save rateContext
80%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
364
PassesContext
573
291
Accurate passesContext
513
80%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.97
13.70
FoulsContext
13.70
14.60
Fouls sufferedContext
8.90
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Auxerre
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,427 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Marseille
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel520 km1,634 km in 14d
Schedule load19%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Auxerre |
Marseille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 19 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3Ligue 1 2025-2026, 29 Oct | 3Ligue 1 2025-2026, 29 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 520 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,427 km | 1,634 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Auxerre
Confirmed XI
16D. Léon(G)
14G. Mensah
92C. Akpa
20S. Diomandé
29M. Senaya
7J. Casimir
19D. Namaso
5K. Danois
42E. Owusu
21L. Coulibaly
10L. Sinayoko
Marseille
Confirmed XI
1G. Rulli(G)
33Emerson
4C. Egan-Riley
28B. Pavard
6U. Garcia
8A. Gomes
23P. Højbjerg
17M. O'Riley
62A. Murillo
97P. Aubameyang
34Robinio Vaz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Auxerre
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Marseille
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Auxerre+1.8 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Marseille-2.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Auxerre · Home
1.20points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-3
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 1.00
Marseille · Away
1.20points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-3
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Auxerre | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | L 0–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| LE Havre | L 0–1 H | W 6–2 H |
| Rennes | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Lens | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Lorient | W 1–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| Points | 4 of 18 · 0.67 per game | 12 of 18 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Auxerre wins0 draws2 Marseille wins
Goals per game1.75 – 1.25
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 22 Feb 2025Auxerre3–0Marseille
- 8 Nov 2024Marseille1–3Auxerre
- 30 Apr 2023Marseille2–1Auxerre
- 3 Sep 2022Auxerre0–2Marseille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Auxerre | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Auxerre | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Auxerre | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 8.67 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 4.00 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Auxerre | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.13 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 7.63 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 4.60 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benoît Bastien France · 107 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.22league 3.89
Red cards0.21league 0.29
Cards 5+47%league 39%
Fouls24.8league 24.5
Penalties0.38league 0.50
Home wins53%league 52%
Auxerre2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L21 May 23H · Paris Saint Germain1–21
- L1 Jan 23A · Nantes0–12
Marseille13 with this referee
Record3-2-8
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.7
Pens for · against2 · 4
Reds1
- L12 Apr 25A · Monaco0–31
- W22 Sep 24A · Lyon3–23
- W17 Aug 24A · Stade Brestois 295–11
- L31 Mar 24H · Paris Saint Germain0–20
- L4 Feb 24A · Lyon0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Auxerre10 games · scored 7 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 24 · conceded 11
2
0-15
4
4
16-30
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
5
61-75
9
4
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 7 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 25 · conceded 11
5
0-15
4
4
16-30
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
