Auxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Auxerre were slight favourites.
Auxerre were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Auxerre. Auxerre had 6.1 days of rest, Nantes 6.1 and had to travel 390 km.
Away travel390 kmRest days6.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Auxerre53%
Draw27%
Nantes20%
Auxerre51%
Draw25%
Nantes23%
Auxerre52%
Draw28%
Nantes20%
Auxerre46%
Draw29%
Nantes25%
Auxerre53%
Draw26%
Nantes20%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Auxerre)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceWilly Delajod
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 107
Team strength
Auxerre
Nantes
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
19
39
AttackIn forecast
24
25
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNantes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AuxerreNantes
0.82
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.89
1.32
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
46%
Scored inContext
59%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
10.32
ShotsContext
9.81
3.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.16
30%
On target shareContext
30%
6.65
Shots in the boxContext
6.27
63%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.78
11.29
Shots allowedContext
13.59
4.36
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.81
3.08
BlocksContext
4.17
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.32
72%
Save rateContext
68%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
367
PassesContext
352
296
Accurate passesContext
282
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.21
FoulsContext
12.15
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.48
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.07
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
40%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.00
ShotsContext
10.30
3.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.90
28%
On target shareContext
28%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.44
66%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.80
Shots allowedContext
10.10
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
3.78
BlocksContext
3.25
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
79%
Save rateContext
65%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
356
PassesContext
356
283
Accurate passesContext
284
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.30
FoulsContext
13.30
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Auxerre
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km633 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nantes
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel390 km1,215 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Auxerre |
Nantes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 5 Apr | 6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 5 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 390 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 633 km | 1,215 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Auxerre
Confirmed XI
16D. Léon(G)
14G. Mensah
24B. Okoh
20S. Diomandé
29M. Senaya
42E. Owusu
5K. Danois
22F. Oppegård
19D. Namaso
28R. Faivre
10L. Sinayoko
Nantes
Confirmed XI
1A. Lopes(G)
27D. Machado
3N. Cozza
2Ali Yusuf
24F. Guilbert
13F. Coquelin
10M. Abline
8J. Lepenant
21M. Kaba
17D. Assoumani
37I. Ganago
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Auxerre
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nantes
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Auxerre+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Nantes-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Auxerre · Home
1.07points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-7
- Scored
- 0.93
- Conceded
- 1.07
Nantes · Away
0.77points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-7
- Scored
- 0.77
- Conceded
- 1.46
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Auxerre | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| LE Havre | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Marseille | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Strasbourg | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A | L 2–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Lorient | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Rennes | L 0–3 HD 2–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Metz | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Paris FC | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Toulouse | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Lens | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Lille | L 3–4 H | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Lyon | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Angers | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 HL 1–4 A |
| Monaco | L 1–2 H | L 1–3 AL 3–5 H |
| Nice | L 1–3 A | L 1–4 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 23 of 81 · 0.85 per game | 15 of 78 · 0.58 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Auxerre wins1 draws3 Nantes wins
Goals per game0.60 – 1.20
Over 2.520%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets0% · 60%
- 30 Aug 2025Nantes1–0Auxerre
- 10 May 2025Auxerre1–1Nantes
- 25 Aug 2024Nantes2–0Auxerre
- 16 Apr 2023Auxerre2–1Nantes
- 1 Jan 2023Nantes1–0Auxerre
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Auxerre | Nantes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.82 | 0.89 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.32 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 2.56 | 2.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 39% | 44% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 48% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 54% | 41% | |
| Games | 28 | 27 |
| Auxerre | Nantes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.50 | 2.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Auxerre | Nantes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.68 | 3.19 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.39 | 5.62 | |
| Match total | 9.07 | 8.81 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 16/28 | 62% 16/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 32% 9/28 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 7/28 | 38% 10/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 2.07 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.71 | 2.44 | |
| Match total | 4.96 | 4.51 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 79% 22/28 | 70% 19/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 14/28 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Auxerre | Nantes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 7.30 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 5.50 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Willy Delajod France · 107 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.48league 3.68
Red cards0.26league 0.27
Cards 5+36%league 36%
Fouls24.6league 23.7
Penalties0.40league 0.36
Home wins42%league 48%
Auxerre2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L14 Jan 23A · Lens0–13
- L3 Sep 22H · Marseille0–21
Nantes10 with this referee
Record1-3-6
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L7 Mar 26H · Angers0–11
- L15 Sep 24H · Reims1–23
- L20 Apr 24H · Rennes0–31
- W24 Feb 24A · Lorient1–02
- L13 Aug 23H · Toulouse1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Auxerre28 games · scored 23 · conceded 37
4
4
0-15
3
8
16-30
4
6
31-45
3
5
46-60
5
3
61-75
4
11
76-90
Nantes27 games · scored 24 · conceded 45
5
4
0-15
1
8
16-30
8
7
31-45
2
6
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
16
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
3
0-15
2
5
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Nantes10 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
2
1
0-15
6
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
