Auxerre vs Nice – 12 Sep 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 4 Sat, Sep 12 · 19:45 Stade de l’Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre

Auxerre 18th · 0 pts · 3 played LLL

1–0Full time

Nice 15th · 2 pts · 3 played DLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Auxerre were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Auxerre had 8.1 days of rest, Nice 7 and had to travel 538 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel538 kmRest days8.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Auxerre46%

Draw24%

Nice30%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.28

Auxerre45%

Draw25%

Nice29%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.17

Auxerre45%

Draw24%

Nice30%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.28

Auxerre39%

Draw25%

Nice37%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.44

Auxerre47%

Draw24%

Nice29%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.29

Over 2.5 56% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Auxerre)

23°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 2 km/h
Humidity 43%

Referee · FranceFrançois Letexier

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.34
Matches 135

Team strength

Auxerre

Nice

26 L90 StrengthIn forecast 25

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

39 AttackIn forecast 26

25 DefenceIn forecast 35

18 Form indexContext 23

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Auxerre

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nice

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Auxerre

Nice

1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.33

3.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33

1.57 xGVia Att/Def 0.81

3.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.01

-0.24 Goals minus xGContext -0.48

100% Scored inContext 33%

0% Clean sheetsContext 33%

12.33 ShotsContext 12.33

4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.33

38% On target shareContext 19%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.33

49% Box shareContext 60%

11% ConversionContext 3%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

16.00 Shots allowedContext 10.67

7.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

3.67 BlocksContext 2.67

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.67

55% Save rateContext 56%

48% PossessionIn forecast 58%

398 PassesContext 616

332 Accurate passesContext 542

83% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.37 Team ratingContext 6.72

15.00 FoulsContext 8.33

7.67 Fouls sufferedContext 8.67

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.33 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.10 xGVia Att/Def 0.98

1.94 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

+0.50 Goals minus xGContext -0.38

90% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.30 ShotsContext 10.60

4.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.80

38% On target shareContext 26%

7.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.80

57% Box shareContext 63%

14% ConversionContext 6%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.30

12.70 Shots allowedContext 12.80

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.80 BlocksContext 3.20

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

62% Save rateContext 65%

46% PossessionIn forecast 47%

368 PassesContext 447

299 Accurate passesContext 374

81% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.73

14.80 FoulsContext 10.40

10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.90

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Auxerre LLL

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km499 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 18 · 0 pts vs 4.2 for an average club · -3.1 vs expected

L4 SepA · Lyon1–30.6 xPts
L29 AugH · Angers1–31.8 xPts
L22 AugA · Lens2–50.7 xPts

Nice DLD

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel538 km1,372 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 23 · 2 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected

D5 SepH · Le Mans1–11.5 xPts
L30 AugA · Paris FC0–31.0 xPts
D22 AugH · Lorient0–01.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Auxerre	Nice
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 4 Sep	7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 5 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	538 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	499 km	1,372 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Auxerre Confirmed XI

3-4-3

23M. Diop(G)

92C. Akpa 4A. Tuanzebe 15C. Makosso

22F. Oppegård 5K. Danois 46A. Piedfort 27L. Sy

3R. Labeau-Lascary 9C. Archer 10D. Namaso

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Nice Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

23Y. Diouf(G)

35X. Mandza Tsiendi 55Y. Ndayishimiye 5M. Mohamed Ahmed

27N. Nkounkou 28A. Witsel 39D. Coulibaly 92J. Clauss

11S. Wahi 7G. Hein

9M. Amoura

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Auxerre Absences are shown before kick-off

Nice Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Auxerre+0.9 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Nice-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Auxerre · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.00

Nice · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Auxerre wins3 draws1 Nice wins

Goals per game1.33 – 1.33 Over 2.550% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

10 May 2026Auxerre2–1Nice
23 Aug 2025Nice3–1Auxerre
14 Mar 2025Nice1–1Auxerre
18 Aug 2024Auxerre2–1Nice
3 Mar 2023Nice1–1Auxerre
16 Oct 2022Auxerre1–1Nice

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Auxerre	Nice	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	0.33
Conceded per game	3.67	1.33
Match goals	5.00	1.67	2.94
Over 1.5	100%	67%
Over 2.5	100%	33%	56%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	33%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	33%
Failed to score	0%	67%
Games	3	3

	Auxerre	Nice	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	0.60
Conceded per game	1.90	1.20
Match goals	3.50	1.80	2.94
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	30%	56%
Over 3.5	60%	10%
Both teams scored	80%	60%	58%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	10%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Auxerre	Nice	League
Corners
Corners won	6.33	6.00
Corners conceded	7.67	2.33
Match total	14.00	8.33	10.33
Over 8.5	100% 3/3	33% 1/3
Over 9.5	100% 3/3	33% 1/3
Over 10.5	100% 3/3	33% 1/3
Cards
Cards	2.33	1.33
Opponent cards	1.67	0.67
Match total	4.00	2.00	3.13
Over 3.5	67% 2/3	33% 1/3
Over 4.5	33% 1/3	0% 0/3

	Auxerre	Nice	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	5.30
Corners conceded	5.60	4.50
Match total	10.40	9.80	10.33
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.20
Opponent cards	2.10	1.50
Match total	3.90	2.70	3.13
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · François Letexier France · 135 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.98league 2.97

Red cards0.24league 0.14

Cards 5+43%league 17%

Fouls22.2league 22.8

Penalties0.34league 0.41

Home wins50%league 28%

Auxerre5 with this referee

Record2-2-1 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.8 Pens for · against0 · 1

W10 May 26H · Nice2–11
D8 Feb 26H · Paris FC0–01
D29 Nov 25A · Paris FC1–11
L4 Oct 25H · Lens1–24
W24 Nov 24H · Angers1–04

Nice12 with this referee

Record3-4-5 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.3 Pens for · against2 · 1

L10 May 26A · Auxerre1–20
W14 Mar 26A · Angers2–03
L1 Nov 25A · Paris Saint Germain0–11
L17 Jan 25A · Lille1–23
W7 Dec 24H · LE Havre2–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.