Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain – 23 Jan 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 19 Fri, Jan 23 · 19:00 Stade de l’Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre

Auxerre 17th · 12 pts · 18 played DWLLL

0–1Full time

Paris Saint Germain 2nd · 42 pts · 18 played LWWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.

Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 22). Absences weigh more on Paris Saint Germain. Auxerre had 6.1 days of rest, Paris Saint Germain 7 and had to travel 148 km.

Away travel148 kmRest days6.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Auxerre8%

Draw15%

Paris Saint Germain78%

Expected goals 0.75 – 2.68

Auxerre8%

Draw15%

Paris Saint Germain77%

Expected goals 0.70 – 2.55

Auxerre7%

Draw14%

Paris Saint Germain79%

Expected goals 0.71 – 2.70

Auxerre5%

Draw11%

Paris Saint Germain84%

Expected goals 0.67 – 3.01

Auxerre8%

Draw16%

Paris Saint Germain76%

Expected goals 0.74 – 2.53

Over 2.5 67% Both score 49% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Auxerre)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceMathieu Vernice

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 51

Team strength

Auxerre

Paris Saint Germain

22 L90 StrengthIn forecast 89

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 89

39 AttackIn forecast 91

25 DefenceIn forecast 83

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Auxerre

Attack—

Defense risk—

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Auxerre

Paris Saint Germain

0.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.22

1.56 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.83

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.55

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.81

-0.31 Goals minus xGContext +0.67

50% Scored inContext 89%

17% Clean sheetsContext 50%

10.50 ShotsContext 16.89

3.53 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50

32% On target shareContext 39%

6.69 Shots in the boxContext 9.78

62% Box shareContext 57%

7% ConversionContext 13%

2.63 OffsidesContext 1.40

11.00 Shots allowedContext 8.28

4.39 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.31

2.67 BlocksContext 2.64

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.57

68% Save rateContext 72%

45% PossessionIn forecast 69%

373 PassesContext 729

303 Accurate passesContext 668

81% Pass accuracyContext 92%

6.72 Team ratingContext 7.04

13.72 FoulsContext 10.00

14.28 Fouls sufferedContext 8.39

2.22 Yellow cardsContext 1.06

0.17 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 18 and 18 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.61

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.80

-0.42 Goals minus xGContext +0.89

30% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

10.50 ShotsContext 17.90

3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50

32% On target shareContext 36%

7.38 Shots in the boxContext 11.70

65% Box shareContext 65%

7% ConversionContext 14%

1.80 OffsidesContext 1.71

10.10 Shots allowedContext 8.60

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

1.88 BlocksContext 2.11

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

64% Save rateContext 66%

45% PossessionIn forecast 67%

378 PassesContext 662

314 Accurate passesContext 595

83% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.69 Team ratingContext 7.04

14.60 FoulsContext 9.20

13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 0.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Auxerre

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km596 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Paris Saint Germain

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel148 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Auxerre	Paris Saint Germain
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 Jan	7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 16 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	148 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	596 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	8.9	9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Auxerre Confirmed XI

5-4-1

16D. Léon(G)

14G. Mensah 92C. Akpa 20S. Diomandé 29M. Senaya 27L. Sy

19D. Namaso 17O. El Azzouzi 5K. Danois 8N. Ahamada

10L. Sinayoko

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Paris Saint Germain Confirmed XI

4-3-3

30L. Chevalier(G)

21L. Hernández 4Beraldo 6I. Zabarnyi 33W. Zaïre-Emery

24S. Mayulu 17Vitinha 49I. Mbaye

29B. Barcola 9Gonçalo Ramos 7K. Kvaratskhelia

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Auxerre Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Paris Saint Germain Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Auxerre+0.6 pp
Draw+0.4 pp
Paris Saint Germain-1.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Auxerre · Home 1.11points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-5
Scored: 1.11
Conceded: 1.22

Paris Saint Germain · Away 1.89points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 5-2-2
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.22

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Auxerre	Paris Saint Germain
Lens	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H	W 2–0 H
Stade Brestois 29	L 0–2 A	W 3–0 A
Lille	L 3–4 H	W 3–0 HD 1–1 A
Metz	W 3–1 H	W 3–2 A
Paris FC	D 1–1 A	W 2–1 H
Lyon	D 0–0 H	W 3–2 A
Angers	L 0–2 A	W 1–0 H
Marseille	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 A
Strasbourg	L 0–3 A	D 3–3 H
LE Havre	L 0–1 H	W 3–0 H
Rennes	D 2–2 A	W 5–0 H
Toulouse	W 1–0 H	W 6–3 A
Monaco	L 1–2 H	L 0–1 A
Nantes	L 0–1 A	W 1–0 A
Nice	L 1–3 A	W 1–0 H
Lorient	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 A
Points	12 of 51 · 0.71 per game	39 of 51 · 2.29 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

0 Auxerre wins1 draws4 Paris Saint Germain wins

Goals per game0.40 – 2.40 Over 2.560% Both scored40% Clean sheets20% · 60%

27 Sep 2025Paris Saint Germain2–0Auxerre
17 May 2025Paris Saint Germain3–1Auxerre
6 Dec 2024Auxerre0–0Paris Saint Germain
21 May 2023Auxerre1–2Paris Saint Germain
13 Nov 2022Paris Saint Germain5–0Auxerre

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Auxerre	Paris Saint Germain	Forecast
Scored per game	0.78	2.22
Conceded per game	1.56	0.83
Match goals	2.33	3.06	3.43
Over 1.5	61%	72%
Over 2.5	39%	50%	67%
Over 3.5	22%	28%
Both teams scored	39%	39%	49%
Clean sheets	17%	50%
Failed to score	50%	11%
Games	18	18

	Auxerre	Paris Saint Germain	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	2.40
Conceded per game	1.60	0.70
Match goals	2.30	3.10	3.43
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	30%	70%	67%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	40%	49%
Clean sheets	10%	50%
Failed to score	70%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Auxerre	Paris Saint Germain	League
Corners
Corners won	4.89	5.25
Corners conceded	4.22	3.31
Match total	9.11	8.56	9.32
Over 8.5	44% 8/18	44% 7/16
Over 9.5	39% 7/18	25% 4/16
Over 10.5	33% 6/18	13% 2/16
Cards
Cards	2.56	1.06
Opponent cards	2.83	1.78
Match total	5.39	2.84	4.00
Over 3.5	78% 14/18	22% 4/18
Over 4.5	50% 9/18	11% 2/18

	Auxerre	Paris Saint Germain	League
Corners
Corners won	5.40	5.50
Corners conceded	4.00	3.50
Match total	9.40	9.00	9.32
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	1.00
Opponent cards	2.50	2.40
Match total	4.80	3.40	4.00
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Mathieu Vernice France · 51 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.22league 3.64

Red cards0.39league 0.33

Cards 5+51%league 36%

Fouls27.0league 24.2

Penalties0.33league 0.44

Home wins45%league 51%

Auxerre7 with this referee

Record2-2-3 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.6 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds2

W27 Apr 25A · Lens4–04
L2 Mar 25H · Strasbourg0–11
L5 Oct 24A · Saint Etienne1–31
D27 May 23A · Toulouse1–13
D11 Mar 23H · Rennes0–02

Paris Saint Germain4 with this referee

Record4-0-0 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W22 Nov 25H · LE Havre3–02
W10 May 25A · Montpellier4–11
W19 Apr 25H · LE Havre2–10
W8 Mar 25A · Rennes4–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.