Ligue 1 Gameweek 5 Sun, Sep 20 · 14:00 Stade de l’Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre
Auxerre 16th · 3 pts · 4 played
2–1Full time
Stade Brestois 29 10th · 5 pts · 4 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Stade Brestois 29. Auxerre had 7.8 days of rest, Stade Brestois 29 6.8 and had to travel 602 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel602 kmRest days7.8 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Auxerre35%
Draw24%
Stade Brestois 2941%
Expected goals 1.50 – 1.64
Auxerre40%
Draw26%
Stade Brestois 2934%
Expected goals 1.41 – 1.27
Auxerre34%
Draw24%
Stade Brestois 2942%
Expected goals 1.46 – 1.63
Auxerre28%
Draw23%
Stade Brestois 2949%
Expected goals 1.34 – 1.84
Auxerre35%
Draw23%
Stade Brestois 2941%
Expected goals 1.56 – 1.70
Over 2.5 61% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Auxerre)
24°CPartly cloudy
  • Precipitation 0.0 mm
  • Wind 11 km/h
  • Humidity 46%
RefereeGuillaume Paradis
  • Cards per match 3.7
  • Penalties per match 0.06
  • Matches 18

Team strength

AuxerreStade Brestois 29
27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 33
30 Current StrengthIn forecast 34
39 AttackIn forecast 47
25 DefenceIn forecast 36
24 Form indexContext 43
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Auxerre

Attack—
Defense risk—

Stade Brestois 29

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AuxerreStade Brestois 29
1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
2.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
1.57 xGVia Att/Def 2.73
3.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.90
-0.32 Goals minus xGContext -1.23
100% Scored inContext 75%
25% Clean sheetsContext 0%
12.00 ShotsContext 21.25
5.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00
44% On target shareContext 33%
6.00 Shots in the boxContext 14.50
49% Box shareContext 66%
10% ConversionContext 7%
2.00 OffsidesContext 3.33
15.00 Shots allowedContext 11.75
6.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
3.50 BlocksContext 2.50
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
62% Save rateContext 75%
44% PossessionIn forecast 46%
372 PassesContext 405
300 Accurate passesContext 327
81% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.53 Team ratingContext 6.81
13.25 FoulsContext 15.25
7.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.25
1.75 Yellow cardsContext 1.25
0.25 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games
1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80
1.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.34
2.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34
+0.57 Goals minus xGContext -0.14
90% Scored inContext 70%
30% Clean sheetsContext 0%
11.20 ShotsContext 14.50
5.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60
43% On target shareContext 32%
7.14 Shots in the boxContext 9.80
54% Box shareContext 67%
14% ConversionContext 8%
1.86 OffsidesContext 2.75
12.90 Shots allowedContext 14.40
5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80
2.90 BlocksContext 4.30
3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22
64% Save rateContext 63%
44% PossessionIn forecast 47%
363 PassesContext 404
291 Accurate passesContext 330
80% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.77 Team ratingContext 6.78
13.50 FoulsContext 12.20
9.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.20
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Auxerre
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 24 · 3 pts vs 6.3 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
  • W12 SepH · Nice1–01.6 xPts
  • L4 SepA · Lyon1–30.6 xPts
  • L29 AugH · Angers1–31.8 xPts
  • L22 AugA · Lens2–50.7 xPts
Stade Brestois 29
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel602 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 43 · 5 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected
  • L13 SepH · Paris Saint Germain0–10.7 xPts
  • W5 SepA · LE Havre2–11.4 xPts
  • D29 AugH · Toulouse2–21.5 xPts
  • D22 AugA · Le Mans2–21.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Auxerre Stade Brestois 29
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.8Ligue 1 2026-2027, 12 Sep6.8Ligue 1 2026-2027, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km602 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 31 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one21.120.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Auxerre Confirmed XI
3-4-3
23M. Diop(G)
92C. Akpa 4A. Tuanzebe 15C. Makosso
22F. Oppegård 5K. Danois 46A. Piedfort 27L. Sy
3R. Labeau-Lascary 9C. Archer 10D. Namaso
+5 more reported missing outside this XI
Stade Brestois 29 Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1E. Selvik(G)
2B. Locko 4G. Lloris 71Raphael Marc Le Guen 70K. Lala
8H. Magnetti 13J. Chotard
9P. Mboup 23K. Doumbia 10G. Versini
19L. Ajorque
+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Auxerre Absences are shown before kick-off
Stade Brestois 29 Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Auxerre+0.8 pp
  • Draw-0.2 pp
  • Stade Brestois 29-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Auxerre · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games
W-D-L
1-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.50
Stade Brestois 29 · Away 2.00points per game · 2 away games
W-D-L
1-1-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Auxerre wins2 draws2 Stade Brestois 29 wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 33%
  • 21 Mar 2026Auxerre3–0Stade Brestois 29
  • 4 Jan 2026Stade Brestois 292–0Auxerre
  • 14 Feb 2025Stade Brestois 292–2Auxerre
  • 27 Sep 2024Auxerre3–0Stade Brestois 29
  • 14 May 2023Stade Brestois 291–0Auxerre
  • 2 Oct 2022Auxerre1–1Stade Brestois 29

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

AuxerreStade Brestois 29Forecast
Scored per game 1.251.50
Conceded per game 2.751.50
Match goals 4.003.00 3.14
Over 1.5 75%75%
Over 2.5 75%75% 61%
Over 3.5 75%50%
Both teams scored 75%75% 63%
Clean sheets 25%0%
Failed to score 0%25%
Games44
AuxerreStade Brestois 29Forecast
Scored per game 1.601.20
Conceded per game 1.801.80
Match goals 3.403.00 3.14
Over 1.5 80%80%
Over 2.5 70%60% 61%
Over 3.5 60%40%
Both teams scored 70%70% 63%
Clean sheets 30%0%
Failed to score 10%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

AuxerreStade Brestois 29League
Corners
Corners won5.506.25
Corners conceded7.752.50
Match total13.258.759.94
Over 8.5100% 4/475% 3/4
Over 9.5100% 4/450% 2/4
Over 10.5100% 4/425% 1/4
Cards
Cards2.001.25
Opponent cards1.502.00
Match total3.503.253.19
Over 3.550% 2/425% 1/4
Over 4.525% 1/425% 1/4
AuxerreStade Brestois 29League
Corners
Corners won4.605.13
Corners conceded6.004.38
Match total10.609.519.94
Over 8.570% 7/1088% 7/8
Over 9.570% 7/1050% 4/8
Over 10.560% 6/1025% 2/8
Cards
Cards1.701.20
Opponent cards2.001.80
Match total3.703.003.19
Over 3.560% 6/1030% 3/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Guillaume Paradis 18 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.61league 3.12
Red cards0.11league 0.10
Cards 5+39%league 24%
Fouls24.3league 24.0
Penalties0.06league 0.31
Home wins33%league 38%
Auxerre

No previous matches with this referee.

Stade Brestois 292 with this referee
Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • D19 Apr 26A · Nantes1–12
  • L25 Jan 26H · Toulouse0–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Auxerre4 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
2 0-15
1 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 46-60
3 2 61-75
2 76-90
Stade Brestois 294 games · scored 6 · conceded 6
1 2 0-15
1 16-30
1 1 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 1 76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 16 · conceded 18
2 3 0-15
1 2 16-30
5 1 31-45
5 46-60
6 4 61-75
2 3 76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
3 5 0-15
2 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 3 61-75
2 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Ligue 1

View all fixtures →
Monaco Lens 21 Paris FC Strasbourg 21 Angers Estac Troyes 20 Lyon Rennes 40 Toulouse LE Havre 32 Le Mans Lorient 21 Auxerre Stade Brestois 29 21 Nice Lille 21 Marseille Paris Saint Germain 12