AZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
AZ Alkmaar
6th · 42 pts · 28 played
WLLWL
First leg3–4
2–0Full time
Fortuna Sittard
11th · 35 pts · 28 played
WWLWL
Our take
AZ Alkmaar were clear favourites.
AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AZ Alkmaar. AZ Alkmaar had 13 days of rest, Fortuna Sittard 14.1 and had to travel 197 km.
Away travel197 kmRest days13 · 14.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
AZ Alkmaar69%
Draw18%
Fortuna Sittard13%
AZ Alkmaar61%
Draw23%
Fortuna Sittard17%
AZ Alkmaar69%
Draw18%
Fortuna Sittard13%
AZ Alkmaar61%
Draw20%
Fortuna Sittard18%
AZ Alkmaar68%
Draw18%
Fortuna Sittard14%
Over 2.5 70%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alkmaar)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRichard Martens
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 15
Team strength
AZ AlkmaarFortuna Sittard
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
52
AttackIn forecast
19
49
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AZ AlkmaarFortuna Sittard
1.68
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.54
1.61
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.86
1.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
89%
Scored inContext
89%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
15.04
ShotsContext
12.79
5.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.74
38%
On target shareContext
36%
9.93
Shots in the boxContext
8.29
65%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.72
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.32
Shots allowedContext
14.25
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.59
BlocksContext
3.93
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
67%
Save rateContext
69%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
445
PassesContext
357
365
Accurate passesContext
274
82%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.79
10.00
FoulsContext
12.21
11.18
Fouls sufferedContext
11.43
2.04
Yellow cardsContext
2.07
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.04
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.79
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
70%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.10
ShotsContext
11.70
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
38%
On target shareContext
39%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
64%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.17
10.30
Shots allowedContext
14.60
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.20
BlocksContext
3.70
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
63%
Save rateContext
65%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
470
PassesContext
340
391
Accurate passesContext
255
83%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.50
FoulsContext
10.20
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AZ Alkmaar
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km277 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fortuna Sittard
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel197 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AZ Alkmaar |
Fortuna Sittard |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Mar | 14.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 197 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 277 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
41J. Zoet(G)
23B. van Duijl
5Alexandre Penetra
3W. Goes
22Elijah Dijkstra
26K. Smit
10S. Mijnans
30D. Kasius
17I. Jensen
35M. Meerdink
7Weslley Patati
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
1L. Koopmans(G)
8J. Dahlhaus
4S. Adewoye
44Iván Márquez
21N. Kasanwirjo
5Y. Oukili
23P. Brittijn
9K. Sierhuis
70L. Duijvestijn
18D. Limnios
19P. Gladon
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AZ Alkmaar
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fortuna Sittard
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AZ Alkmaar+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Fortuna Sittard+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
AZ Alkmaar · Home
1.77points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-2
- Scored
- 2.23
- Conceded
- 1.62
Fortuna Sittard · Away
1.00points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-8
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | AZ Alkmaar | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Groningen | L 0–3 AW 4–1 H | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Heracles | W 4–0 HW 2–1 A | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–2 AL 1–5 H | L 1–2 HL 2–5 A |
| Utrecht | L 0–2 AW 4–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 3–1 HW 1–0 A | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Excelsior | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Ajax | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A | L 1–4 AL 1–3 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A | W 3–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Telstar | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H | L 1–4 HW 3–1 A |
| PEC Zwolle | L 1–3 AD 2–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| FC Volendam | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Twente | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 HL 2–3 A |
| Heerenveen | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Feyenoord | D 3–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| NAC Breda | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 42 of 81 · 1.56 per game | 32 of 81 · 1.19 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
3 AZ Alkmaar wins0 draws2 Fortuna Sittard wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.20
Over 2.560%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 21 Dec 2025Fortuna Sittard4–3AZ Alkmaar
- 23 Feb 2025AZ Alkmaar1–0Fortuna Sittard
- 6 Oct 2024Fortuna Sittard1–0AZ Alkmaar
- 17 Feb 2024Fortuna Sittard1–2AZ Alkmaar
- 1 Oct 2023AZ Alkmaar4–0Fortuna Sittard
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AZ Alkmaar | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.68 | 1.54 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.61 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 3.29 | 3.39 | 3.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 71% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 68% | 79% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 11% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| AZ Alkmaar | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 100% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 100% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AZ Alkmaar | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.69 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 6.46 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 11.15 | 10.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 21/28 | 77% 20/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 39% 11/28 | 62% 16/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 8/28 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.07 | 2.11 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.54 | 1.36 | |
| Match total | 3.61 | 3.47 | 3.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% 13/28 | 39% 11/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 7/28 | 32% 9/28 | |
| AZ Alkmaar | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 8.00 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 12.11 | 10.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 2.70 | 3.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Richard Martens Netherlands · 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.07league 3.21
Red cards0.13league 0.17
Cards 5+20%league 27%
Fouls20.7league 21.3
Penalties0.27league 0.24
Home wins47%league 45%
AZ Alkmaar2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D27 Oct 24H · GO Ahead Eagles2–23
- W17 Feb 24A · Fortuna Sittard2–11
Fortuna Sittard3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L1 Feb 26A · Heracles1–23
- D7 Dec 24A · Heracles2–21
- L17 Feb 24H · AZ Alkmaar1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AZ Alkmaar28 games · scored 47 · conceded 45
7
9
0-15
6
4
16-30
11
10
31-45
5
5
46-60
6
5
61-75
12
12
76-90
Fortuna Sittard28 games · scored 43 · conceded 52
9
9
0-15
4
10
16-30
10
8
31-45
5
8
46-60
5
6
61-75
10
11
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 20 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
61-75
8
3
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 16 · conceded 21
3
6
0-15
3
3
16-30
6
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
