AZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
AZ Alkmaar
5th · 24 pts · 14 played
WWLLL
2–2Full time
GO Ahead Eagles
10th · 17 pts · 14 played
WLWLD
Our take
AZ Alkmaar were slight favourites.
AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (46 vs 26). AZ Alkmaar had 6.9 days of rest, GO Ahead Eagles 7 and had to travel 105 km.
Away travel105 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
AZ Alkmaar58%
Draw23%
GO Ahead Eagles19%
AZ Alkmaar57%
Draw24%
GO Ahead Eagles19%
AZ Alkmaar58%
Draw23%
GO Ahead Eagles19%
AZ Alkmaar50%
Draw25%
GO Ahead Eagles25%
AZ Alkmaar57%
Draw24%
GO Ahead Eagles19%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alkmaar)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsErwin Blank
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.10
- Matches 21
Team strength
AZ AlkmaarGO Ahead Eagles
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
52
AttackIn forecast
29
49
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AZ AlkmaarGO Ahead Eagles
1.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.64
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.46
93%
Scored inContext
86%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
15.71
ShotsContext
10.57
5.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.79
36%
On target shareContext
45%
10.07
Shots in the boxContext
8.09
64%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
16%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.82
12.86
Shots allowedContext
17.86
4.79
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.79
4.08
BlocksContext
6.67
3.54
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.36
72%
Save rateContext
75%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
458
PassesContext
434
382
Accurate passesContext
358
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.21
FoulsContext
8.86
10.64
Fouls sufferedContext
11.14
2.64
Yellow cardsContext
1.29
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.91
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
-0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
90%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.70
ShotsContext
7.00
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
41%
On target shareContext
44%
10.30
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
62%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
17%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.80
Shots allowedContext
16.60
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.40
3.67
BlocksContext
5.33
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.10
70%
Save rateContext
80%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
475
PassesContext
411
399
Accurate passesContext
335
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.78
9.60
FoulsContext
9.40
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.44
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AZ Alkmaar
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km305 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel105 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AZ Alkmaar |
GO Ahead Eagles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 30 Nov | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 30 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 105 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 305 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.1 | 4.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
1R. Owusu-Oduro(G)
15Mateo Chávez
5Alexandre Penetra
3W. Goes
34M. de Wit
26K. Smit
6P. Koopmeiners
17I. Jensen
10S. Mijnans
7Weslley Patati
9T. Parrott
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
5D. James
4J. Kramer
25G. van Zwam
2M. Deijl
34Y. Rahmouni
21M. Meulensteen
17M. Suray
16V. Edvardsen
18R. Margaret
9M. Smit
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AZ Alkmaar
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
GO Ahead Eagles
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AZ Alkmaar-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- GO Ahead Eagles-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
AZ Alkmaar · Home
1.83points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-1
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 2.17
GO Ahead Eagles · Away
0.71points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-4
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 2.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | AZ Alkmaar | GO Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | L 1–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–5 H | L 1–2 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 1–0 A | L 0–3 H |
| Utrecht | W 4–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Ajax | W 2–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Telstar | W 2–1 H | L 2–4 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| PEC Zwolle | D 2–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Feyenoord | D 3–3 H | W 2–1 H |
| Heracles | W 2–1 A | L 2–4 A |
| NAC Breda | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| FC Volendam | D 2–2 A | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 21 of 36 · 1.75 per game | 13 of 36 · 1.08 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 AZ Alkmaar wins1 draws0 GO Ahead Eagles wins
Goals per game3.33 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 4 May 2025GO Ahead Eagles0–3AZ Alkmaar
- 27 Oct 2024AZ Alkmaar2–2GO Ahead Eagles
- 13 Aug 2023AZ Alkmaar5–1GO Ahead Eagles
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AZ Alkmaar | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.86 | 1.64 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 3.43 | 3.36 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 93% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 71% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 64% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 7% | 14% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| AZ Alkmaar | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.00 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AZ Alkmaar | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.79 | 5.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.29 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 10.08 | 10.79 | 9.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 10/14 | 79% 11/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 6/14 | 71% 10/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 4/14 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.71 | 1.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.64 | 2.07 | |
| Match total | 4.35 | 3.50 | 3.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 9/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 7/14 | 21% 3/14 | |
| AZ Alkmaar | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 9.55 | 8.80 | 9.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.80 | 3.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Erwin Blank Netherlands · 21 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.24league 3.35
Red cards0.05league 0.23
Cards 5+14%league 33%
Fouls22.1league 22.0
Penalties0.10league 0.28
Home wins48%league 48%
AZ Alkmaar3 with this referee
Record1-2-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D29 Mar 25A · NEC Nijmegen3–33
- W1 Dec 24H · Heracles1–00
- D3 Dec 23A · Utrecht1–11
GO Ahead Eagles2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W17 Feb 24A · Heerenveen2–02
- W4 Nov 23H · Vitesse5–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AZ Alkmaar14 games · scored 26 · conceded 22
4
3
0-15
4
3
16-30
7
5
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
5
61-75
5
4
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles13 games · scored 21 · conceded 24
4
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
6
31-45
1
6
46-60
4
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
7
46-60
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
