AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles – 29 Aug 2026

Eredivisie Gameweek 4 Sat, Aug 29 · 17:45 AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar 1st · 9 pts · 3 played WWW

5–2Full time

GO Ahead Eagles 3rd · 7 pts · 3 played WDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AZ Alkmaar were clear favourites.

AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AZ Alkmaar. AZ Alkmaar had 7.1 days of rest, GO Ahead Eagles 6.3 and had to travel 105 km.

Away travel105 kmRest days7.1 · 6.3Matches / 14d2 · 2

AZ Alkmaar70%

Draw17%

GO Ahead Eagles13%

Expected goals 2.53 – 1.01

AZ Alkmaar58%

Draw23%

GO Ahead Eagles19%

Expected goals 1.84 – 0.97

AZ Alkmaar71%

Draw16%

GO Ahead Eagles12%

Expected goals 2.53 – 0.98

AZ Alkmaar63%

Draw19%

GO Ahead Eagles18%

Expected goals 2.26 – 1.13

AZ Alkmaar70%

Draw17%

GO Ahead Eagles13%

Expected goals 2.47 – 1.00

Over 2.5 69% Both score 59% Likeliest score 2–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Alkmaar)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsAlex Bos

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 43

Team strength

AZ Alkmaar

GO Ahead Eagles

47 L90 StrengthIn forecast 27

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 24

52 AttackIn forecast 29

49 DefenceIn forecast 17

78 Form indexContext 61

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AZ Alkmaar

Attack—

Defense risk—

GO Ahead Eagles

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AZ Alkmaar

GO Ahead Eagles

2.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00

0.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33

3.04 xGVia Att/Def 1.65

0.77 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.80

-0.37 Goals minus xGContext +1.35

100% Scored inContext 100%

67% Clean sheetsContext 0%

20.67 ShotsContext 15.00

8.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00

39% On target shareContext 47%

13.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.33

66% Box shareContext 61%

13% ConversionContext 20%

3.00 OffsidesContext 1.50

7.33 Shots allowedContext 18.67

1.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.33

2.50 BlocksContext 6.00

1.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

80% Save rateContext 67%

59% PossessionIn forecast 54%

510 PassesContext 477

439 Accurate passesContext 395

86% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.18 Team ratingContext 7.03

11.33 FoulsContext 8.00

15.33 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.77 xGVia Att/Def 1.35

0.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.06

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.45

80% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

16.40 ShotsContext 12.10

5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

36% On target shareContext 43%

10.10 Shots in the boxContext 8.44

62% Box shareContext 63%

12% ConversionContext 15%

1.75 OffsidesContext 1.86

10.20 Shots allowedContext 22.20

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

3.38 BlocksContext 7.00

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.44

71% Save rateContext 76%

56% PossessionIn forecast 50%

472 PassesContext 403

400 Accurate passesContext 322

85% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.93

10.50 FoulsContext 8.00

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 10.10

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AZ Alkmaar WWW

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km525 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 78 · 9 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · +3.8 vs expected

W22 AugA · Fortuna Sittard2–01.8 xPts
W15 AugA · Utrecht4–11.2 xPts
W8 AugH · ADO Den Haag2–02.1 xPts

GO Ahead Eagles WDW

Rest6.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel105 km242 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 61 · 7 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected

W23 AugH · ADO Den Haag3–12.1 xPts
D16 AugA · Feyenoord2–20.6 xPts
W8 AugH · Willem II4–11.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AZ Alkmaar	GO Ahead Eagles
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 22 Aug	6.3Eredivisie 2026-2027, 23 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	105 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	525 km	242 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	9.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AZ Alkmaar Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

28J. De Busser(G)

21D. Kwakman 5Mateo Chávez 3W. Goes 22Elijah Dijkstra

7Weslley Patati 6P. Koopmeiners

9M. Meerdink 11Ro-Zangelo Daal 10K. Smit

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

GO Ahead Eagles Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Haug(G)

5D. James 4J. Kramer 26J. Dirksen 2A. Sampsted

21M. Meulensteen 8H. Linthorst

17M. Suray 16V. Edvardsen 10S. Tengstedt

29E. Flataker

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AZ Alkmaar Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

GO Ahead Eagles Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AZ Alkmaar-0.7 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
GO Ahead Eagles+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

AZ Alkmaar · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.00

GO Ahead Eagles · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	AZ Alkmaar	GO Ahead Eagles
ADO Den Haag	W 2–0 H	W 3–1 H
Points	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

2 AZ Alkmaar wins3 draws0 GO Ahead Eagles wins

Goals per game2.40 – 1.00 Over 2.580% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 20%

23 Apr 2026GO Ahead Eagles0–0AZ Alkmaar
7 Dec 2025AZ Alkmaar2–2GO Ahead Eagles
4 May 2025GO Ahead Eagles0–3AZ Alkmaar
27 Oct 2024AZ Alkmaar2–2GO Ahead Eagles
13 Aug 2023AZ Alkmaar5–1GO Ahead Eagles

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AZ Alkmaar	GO Ahead Eagles	Forecast
Scored per game	2.67	3.00
Conceded per game	0.33	1.33
Match goals	3.00	4.33	3.55
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	33%	100%	69%
Over 3.5	33%	100%
Both teams scored	33%	100%	59%
Clean sheets	67%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	3	3

	AZ Alkmaar	GO Ahead Eagles	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.80
Conceded per game	1.00	1.40
Match goals	2.90	3.20	3.55
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	69%
Over 3.5	30%	60%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	59%
Clean sheets	50%	30%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AZ Alkmaar	GO Ahead Eagles	League
Corners
Corners won	11.00	5.67
Corners conceded	3.67	3.67
Match total	14.67	9.34	10.60
Over 8.5	100% 3/3	33% 1/3
Over 9.5	100% 3/3	33% 1/3
Over 10.5	100% 3/3	33% 1/3
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.00
Opponent cards	2.00	1.00
Match total	3.00	2.00	2.36
Over 3.5	33% 1/3	0% 0/3
Over 4.5	33% 1/3	0% 0/3

	AZ Alkmaar	GO Ahead Eagles	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	5.50
Corners conceded	4.40	6.10
Match total	11.40	11.60	10.60
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	1.20	1.30
Opponent cards	1.60	0.90
Match total	2.80	2.20	2.36
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alex Bos Netherlands · 43 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.19league 2.27

Red cards0.26league 0.08

Cards 5+21%league 12%

Fouls22.1league 20.6

Penalties0.28league 0.08

Home wins40%league 35%

AZ Alkmaar4 with this referee

Record1-2-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 2

D21 Jan 26H · Excelsior1–13
L2 Mar 25A · Heerenveen1–33
D10 Feb 24A · Almere City FC0–01
W20 Aug 23A · Waalwijk3–11

GO Ahead Eagles7 with this referee

Record2-2-3 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 2

L8 Mar 26H · Twente1–41
D11 Jan 26H · Fortuna Sittard2–20
L18 May 25A · Waalwijk3–51
W7 Dec 24H · NEC Nijmegen5–02
L11 Aug 24H · Fortuna Sittard0–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.