AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles – 15 Mar 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Mar 15 · 13:30 AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar 7th · 39 pts · 26 played DWWLL

First leg2–1 4–0Full time

Heracles 18th · 18 pts · 26 played LLLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AZ Alkmaar were clear favourites.

AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AZ Alkmaar. AZ Alkmaar had 7.8 days of rest, Heracles 8.8 and had to travel 133 km.

Away travel133 kmRest days7.8 · 8.8Matches / 14d2 · 1

AZ Alkmaar77%

Draw14%

Heracles8%

Expected goals 2.75 – 0.82

AZ Alkmaar67%

Draw20%

Heracles13%

Expected goals 2.15 – 0.83

AZ Alkmaar78%

Draw14%

Heracles8%

Expected goals 2.74 – 0.80

AZ Alkmaar71%

Draw18%

Heracles12%

Expected goals 2.45 – 0.92

AZ Alkmaar76%

Draw15%

Heracles9%

Expected goals 2.63 – 0.80

Over 2.5 69% Both score 53% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Alkmaar)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsRobin Hensgens

Cards per match 3.1
Penalties per match 0.07
Matches 27

Team strength

AZ Alkmaar

Heracles

40 L90 StrengthIn forecast 12

46 Current StrengthIn forecast 9

52 AttackIn forecast 7

49 DefenceIn forecast 10

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AZ Alkmaar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Heracles

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AZ Alkmaar

Heracles

1.65 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.23

1.62 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50

1.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.12

1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.91

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.11

92% Scored inContext 58%

19% Clean sheetsContext 8%

15.04 ShotsContext 10.54

5.65 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22

38% On target shareContext 35%

9.88 Shots in the boxContext 7.08

64% Box shareContext 64%

11% ConversionContext 12%

1.69 OffsidesContext 1.94

12.46 Shots allowedContext 16.65

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.62

3.56 BlocksContext 5.00

3.12 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.04

68% Save rateContext 61%

52% PossessionIn forecast 44%

446 PassesContext 337

366 Accurate passesContext 259

82% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.73

10.08 FoulsContext 12.54

10.77 Fouls sufferedContext 11.27

2.15 Yellow cardsContext 1.88

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 26 and 26 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.40

1.54 xGVia Att/Def 0.94

1.08 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.95

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.34

80% Scored inContext 40%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.30 ShotsContext 9.50

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.80

37% On target shareContext 30%

8.40 Shots in the boxContext 6.10

62% Box shareContext 63%

11% ConversionContext 6%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.83

11.60 Shots allowedContext 15.80

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.90

3.00 BlocksContext 4.11

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50

68% Save rateContext 65%

52% PossessionIn forecast 44%

449 PassesContext 343

364 Accurate passesContext 264

81% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.66

11.50 FoulsContext 13.30

10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AZ Alkmaar

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km414 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Heracles

Rest8.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel133 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AZ Alkmaar	Heracles
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 7 Mar	8.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 6 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	133 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	414 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	5.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AZ Alkmaar Confirmed XI

4-3-3

12H. Verhulst(G)

34M. de Wit 23B. van Duijl 3W. Goes 22Elijah Dijkstra

10S. Mijnans 6P. Koopmeiners 26K. Smit

27Ro-Zangelo Daal 9T. Parrott 7Weslley Patati

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Heracles Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22R. Pasveer(G)

24I. Mesík 18A. Van Hoorenbeeck 4D. Mirani 3J. Wieckhoff

20Rhys Bozinovski 13J. Žambůrek

9N. Ünüvar 70A. Hrustić 14E. Ahlstrand

25L. Zeefuik

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AZ Alkmaar Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Heracles Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AZ Alkmaar-0.4 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Heracles+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

AZ Alkmaar · Home 1.67points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 5-5-2
Scored: 2.08
Conceded: 1.75

Heracles · Away 0.31points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-11
Scored: 0.85
Conceded: 2.85

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	AZ Alkmaar	Heracles
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–2 AL 1–5 H	L 1–3 HL 3–4 A
Utrecht	L 0–2 AW 4–1 H	D 0–0 HL 0–4 A
Sparta Rotterdam	W 3–1 HW 1–0 A	L 0–2 AW 3–0 H
Excelsior	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H	W 2–1 A
Ajax	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A	L 0–2 A
NEC Nijmegen	L 1–3 HL 1–2 A	L 1–4 AL 1–4 H
Telstar	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H	D 1–1 H
PEC Zwolle	L 1–3 AD 2–2 H	W 8–2 H
FC Volendam	W 1–0 HD 2–2 A	L 0–3 A
Fortuna Sittard	L 3–4 A	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A
GO Ahead Eagles	D 2–2 H	L 0–4 AW 4–2 H
Twente	L 0–1 A	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A
Heerenveen	L 1–3 A	L 0–3 H
Feyenoord	D 3–3 H	L 2–4 AL 0–7 H
NAC Breda	W 1–0 A	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A
Groningen	W 4–1 H	L 0–4 A
Points	36 of 75 · 1.44 per game	18 of 75 · 0.72 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

2 AZ Alkmaar wins1 draws1 Heracles wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.75 Over 2.525% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 25%

14 Sep 2025Heracles1–2AZ Alkmaar
13 Apr 2025Heracles1–0AZ Alkmaar
1 Dec 2024AZ Alkmaar1–0Heracles
28 Sep 2023AZ Alkmaar1–1Heracles

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AZ Alkmaar	Heracles	Forecast
Scored per game	1.65	1.23
Conceded per game	1.62	2.50
Match goals	3.27	3.73	3.57
Over 1.5	81%	92%
Over 2.5	65%	73%	69%
Over 3.5	46%	42%
Both teams scored	73%	54%	53%
Clean sheets	19%	8%
Failed to score	8%	42%
Games	26	26

	AZ Alkmaar	Heracles	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	0.60
Conceded per game	1.40	2.40
Match goals	2.60	3.00	3.57
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	69%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	53%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	10%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AZ Alkmaar	Heracles	League
Corners
Corners won	5.42	4.19
Corners conceded	4.38	6.19
Match total	9.80	10.38	10.31
Over 8.5	73% 19/26	69% 18/26
Over 9.5	42% 11/26	46% 12/26
Over 10.5	31% 8/26	35% 9/26
Cards
Cards	2.19	1.96
Opponent cards	1.50	1.85
Match total	3.69	3.81	3.44
Over 3.5	46% 12/26	46% 12/26
Over 4.5	27% 7/26	31% 8/26

	AZ Alkmaar	Heracles	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	3.80
Corners conceded	3.90	5.50
Match total	8.10	9.30	10.31
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.70
Opponent cards	1.50	1.60
Match total	3.20	3.30	3.44
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Robin Hensgens Netherlands · 27 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.89league 3.25

Red cards0.22league 0.18

Cards 5+22%league 28%

Fouls22.1league 21.4

Penalties0.07league 0.24

Home wins37%league 44%

AZ Alkmaar1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W25 Jan 26A · Telstar1–02

Heracles2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

D29 Nov 25A · Fortuna Sittard1–15
L8 Nov 24A · Utrecht0–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.