AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle – 24 Sep 2025

Eredivisie Knockout phase Wed, Sep 24 · 19:00 AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar 5th · 11 pts · 5 played WDWWD

2–2Full time

PEC Zwolle 13th · 6 pts · 5 played WWLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AZ Alkmaar were clear favourites.

AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 22). AZ Alkmaar had 3.1 days of rest, PEC Zwolle 3.3 and had to travel 92 km.

Away travel92 kmRest days3.1 · 3.3Matches / 14d2 · 2

AZ Alkmaar65%

Draw21%

PEC Zwolle14%

Expected goals 2.12 – 0.89

AZ Alkmaar64%

Draw21%

PEC Zwolle14%

Expected goals 2.06 – 0.87

AZ Alkmaar65%

Draw21%

PEC Zwolle14%

Expected goals 2.13 – 0.89

AZ Alkmaar58%

Draw23%

PEC Zwolle19%

Expected goals 1.89 – 0.99

AZ Alkmaar64%

Draw21%

PEC Zwolle14%

Expected goals 2.05 – 0.87

Over 2.5 58% Both score 52% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Alkmaar)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsRob Dieperink

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 22

Team strength

AZ Alkmaar

PEC Zwolle

54 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 16

52 AttackIn forecast 17

49 DefenceIn forecast 14

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AZ Alkmaar

Attack—

Defense risk—

PEC Zwolle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AZ Alkmaar

PEC Zwolle

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.65 xGVia Att/Def 1.04

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

+0.75 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

100% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

17.40 ShotsContext 7.80

5.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.20

32% On target shareContext 28%

10.40 Shots in the boxContext 4.60

62% Box shareContext 60%

14% ConversionContext 10%

1.50 OffsidesContext 2.20

13.40 Shots allowedContext 14.60

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.40

4.75 BlocksContext 2.80

4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.80

78% Save rateContext 75%

56% PossessionIn forecast 42%

462 PassesContext 358

392 Accurate passesContext 279

85% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.93

10.80 FoulsContext 10.20

10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60

3.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.60 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

+0.70 Goals minus xGContext +0.04

100% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.70 ShotsContext 11.70

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

37% On target shareContext 30%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

62% Box shareContext 61%

16% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.60

12.80 Shots allowedContext 13.50

4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

5.00 BlocksContext 3.33

3.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

84% Save rateContext 72%

51% PossessionIn forecast 48%

435 PassesContext 416

365 Accurate passesContext 342

84% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.07 Team ratingContext 7.00

11.20 FoulsContext 11.20

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

2.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AZ Alkmaar

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km266 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

PEC Zwolle

Rest3.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel92 km166 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AZ Alkmaar	PEC Zwolle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Sep	3.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	92 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	266 km	166 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.7	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AZ Alkmaar Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1R. Owusu-Oduro(G)

34M. de Wit 5Alexandre Penetra 3W. Goes 30D. Kasius

26K. Smit 6P. Koopmeiners

27Ro-Zangelo Daal 10S. Mijnans 7Weslley Patati

35M. Meerdink

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

PEC Zwolle Confirmed XI

4-3-3

16T. de Graaff(G)

2S. Floranus 4A. MacNulty 28S. Graves 3O. Aertssen

8Z. Buurmeester 30R. Thomas 25T. Oosting

22K. de Rooij 10Koen Kostons 19J. Faberski

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AZ Alkmaar Scores -0.04 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

PEC Zwolle Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AZ Alkmaar-0.1 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
PEC Zwolle+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

AZ Alkmaar · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 3.50
Conceded: 2.00

PEC Zwolle · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

3 AZ Alkmaar wins1 draws0 PEC Zwolle wins

Goals per game2.25 – 0.75 Over 2.575% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

9 Feb 2025AZ Alkmaar2–0PEC Zwolle
20 Sep 2024PEC Zwolle1–2AZ Alkmaar
20 Jan 2024AZ Alkmaar2–2PEC Zwolle
24 Sep 2023PEC Zwolle0–3AZ Alkmaar

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AZ Alkmaar	PEC Zwolle	Forecast
Scored per game	2.40	0.80
Conceded per game	1.40	1.40
Match goals	3.80	2.20	3.00
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	20%	58%
Over 3.5	60%	20%
Both teams scored	80%	20%	52%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	0%	40%
Games	5	5

	AZ Alkmaar	PEC Zwolle	Forecast
Scored per game	2.40	0.80
Conceded per game	1.40	1.40
Match goals	3.80	2.20	3.00
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	20%	58%
Over 3.5	60%	20%
Both teams scored	80%	20%	52%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	0%	40%
Games	5	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AZ Alkmaar	PEC Zwolle	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	2.25
Corners conceded	4.40	5.00
Match total	10.40	7.25	10.16
Over 8.5	40% 2/5	25% 1/4
Over 9.5	40% 2/5	25% 1/4
Over 10.5	40% 2/5	0% 0/4
Cards
Cards	3.80	2.40
Opponent cards	1.60	1.80
Match total	5.40	4.20	3.71
Over 3.5	100% 5/5	60% 3/5
Over 4.5	60% 3/5	40% 2/5

	AZ Alkmaar	PEC Zwolle	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	3.44
Corners conceded	4.60	3.44
Match total	9.20	6.88	10.16
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	22% 2/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.90
Opponent cards	2.00	1.70
Match total	5.00	3.60	3.71
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Rob Dieperink Netherlands · 22 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.18league 3.49

Red cards0.23league 0.21

Cards 5+32%league 38%

Fouls21.5league 22.5

Penalties0.23league 0.19

Home wins36%league 47%

AZ Alkmaar3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.1.3 · 4.7 Pens for · against0 · 0

D1 Apr 25H · Waalwijk2–20
L26 Jan 25H · Sparta Rotterdam1–21
W30 Aug 24A · Waalwijk3–03

PEC Zwolle3 with this referee

Record0-2-1 Cards · opp.0.7 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

D15 Mar 25A · Sparta Rotterdam1–10
L26 Oct 24A · PSV Eindhoven0–61
D17 Sep 23H · GO Ahead Eagles1–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.