AZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were slight favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 52). Absences weigh more on AZ Alkmaar. AZ Alkmaar had 7.1 days of rest, PSV Eindhoven 8.9 and had to travel 141 km.
Away travel141 kmRest days7.1 · 8.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
AZ Alkmaar27%
Draw25%
PSV Eindhoven47%
AZ Alkmaar28%
Draw27%
PSV Eindhoven45%
AZ Alkmaar28%
Draw25%
PSV Eindhoven47%
AZ Alkmaar21%
Draw24%
PSV Eindhoven55%
AZ Alkmaar27%
Draw27%
PSV Eindhoven46%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alkmaar)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 80
Team strength
AZ Alkmaar
PSV Eindhoven
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
77
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
52
AttackIn forecast
60
49
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AZ AlkmaarPSV Eindhoven
2.18
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.18
1.18
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.45
2.01
xGVia Att/Def
2.06
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+1.12
100%
Scored inContext
91%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
18.00
ShotsContext
18.82
6.55
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.45
36%
On target shareContext
40%
11.64
Shots in the boxContext
12.27
65%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
17%
1.38
OffsidesContext
1.89
12.55
Shots allowedContext
12.09
4.64
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
4.00
BlocksContext
3.82
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
79%
Save rateContext
66%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
458
PassesContext
548
384
Accurate passesContext
474
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.00
Team ratingContext
7.11
11.09
FoulsContext
12.18
10.73
Fouls sufferedContext
8.36
2.82
Yellow cardsContext
1.36
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.70
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.89
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.81
90%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
16.30
ShotsContext
14.70
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
40%
On target shareContext
37%
11.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
66%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
18%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.13
13.40
Shots allowedContext
11.80
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
4.33
BlocksContext
3.40
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
72%
Save rateContext
62%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
446
PassesContext
542
370
Accurate passesContext
473
83%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.91
11.30
FoulsContext
11.40
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.20
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AZ Alkmaar
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km162 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
PSV Eindhoven
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel141 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AZ Alkmaar |
PSV Eindhoven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 8.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 31 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 141 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 162 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.8 | 13 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
1R. Owusu-Oduro(G)
34M. de Wit
5Alexandre Penetra
3W. Goes
22Elijah Dijkstra
26K. Smit
24Kasper Boogaard
17I. Jensen
10S. Mijnans
7Weslley Patati
9T. Parrott
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
2A. Salah-Eddine
3Yarek Gąsiorowski
22J. Schouten
8S. Dest
23J. Veerman
17Mauro Júnior
5I. Perišić
34I. Saibari
27D. Man
20G. Til
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AZ Alkmaar
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.04 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AZ Alkmaar-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- PSV Eindhoven+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
AZ Alkmaar · Home
2.20points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.60
PSV Eindhoven · Away
3.00points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-0-0
- Scored
- 3.20
- Conceded
- 1.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | AZ Alkmaar | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 1–0 A | W 6–1 H |
| Ajax | W 2–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Telstar | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 1–2 A | W 5–3 A |
| PEC Zwolle | D 2–2 H | W 4–0 A |
| Feyenoord | D 3–3 H | W 3–2 A |
| Groningen | W 4–1 H | W 4–2 H |
| Points | 14 of 21 · 2.00 per game | 16 of 21 · 2.29 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 AZ Alkmaar wins1 draws2 PSV Eindhoven wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.67
Over 2.5100%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 11 Jan 2025PSV Eindhoven2–2AZ Alkmaar
- 19 Oct 2024AZ Alkmaar1–2PSV Eindhoven
- 17 Dec 2023AZ Alkmaar0–4PSV Eindhoven
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AZ Alkmaar | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.18 | 3.18 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.18 | 1.45 | |
| Match goals | 3.36 | 4.64 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 73% | 82% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 64% | |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 73% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 9% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| AZ Alkmaar | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 4.40 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AZ Alkmaar | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.27 | 6.27 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.27 | |
| Match total | 10.27 | 10.54 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 73% 8/11 | 73% 8/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 4/11 | 73% 8/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 3/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.91 | 1.36 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.73 | 1.55 | |
| Match total | 4.64 | 2.91 | 3.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 8/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 55% 6/11 | 18% 2/11 | |
| AZ Alkmaar | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 9.55 | 10.00 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 2.60 | 3.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 80 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.09league 3.34
Red cards0.13league 0.23
Cards 5+44%league 33%
Fouls23.4league 22.2
Penalties0.31league 0.29
Home wins48%league 50%
AZ Alkmaar5 with this referee
Record3-0-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.4
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W5 Oct 25H · Telstar2–13
- W10 Aug 25H · Groningen4–12
- L13 Apr 25A · Heracles0–11
- L13 Jan 24A · Twente1–22
- W1 Oct 23H · Fortuna Sittard4–01
PSV Eindhoven10 with this referee
Record4-4-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D21 Sep 25H · Ajax2–21
- W18 May 25A · Sparta Rotterdam3–12
- L30 Mar 25H · Ajax0–20
- D15 Feb 25H · Utrecht2–22
- D1 Feb 25A · NEC Nijmegen3–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AZ Alkmaar11 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
4
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
PSV Eindhoven11 games · scored 35 · conceded 16
4
1
0-15
7
1
16-30
6
3
31-45
8
2
46-60
5
6
61-75
5
3
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 17 · conceded 16
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
6
3
31-45
4
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 27 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
6
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
9
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
