AZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AZ Alkmaar were slight favourites.
AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (46 vs 26). Absences weigh more on AZ Alkmaar. AZ Alkmaar had 7.2 days of rest, Telstar 7 and had to travel 20 km.
Away travel20 kmRest days7.2 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 1
AZ Alkmaar56%
Draw24%
Telstar20%
AZ Alkmaar57%
Draw24%
Telstar19%
AZ Alkmaar58%
Draw23%
Telstar19%
AZ Alkmaar48%
Draw26%
Telstar26%
AZ Alkmaar55%
Draw24%
Telstar21%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alkmaar)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 74
Team strength
AZ Alkmaar
Telstar
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
52
AttackIn forecast
24
49
DefenceIn forecast
13
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTelstar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AZ AlkmaarTelstar
2.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.86
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.58
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
100%
Scored inContext
57%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
17.29
ShotsContext
14.00
5.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.57
32%
On target shareContext
40%
10.71
Shots in the boxContext
9.57
64%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.40
12.71
Shots allowedContext
13.71
4.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.29
4.50
BlocksContext
4.00
3.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.43
74%
Save rateContext
65%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
471
PassesContext
363
396
Accurate passesContext
288
84%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.87
11.43
FoulsContext
11.86
10.29
Fouls sufferedContext
10.57
3.57
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.44
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
90%
Scored inContext
67%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
14.70
ShotsContext
12.67
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.89
34%
On target shareContext
39%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
61%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.43
14.40
Shots allowedContext
13.78
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
4.70
BlocksContext
4.33
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
77%
Save rateContext
69%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
420
PassesContext
341
350
Accurate passesContext
266
83%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.60
FoulsContext
12.11
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.89
3.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.89
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AZ Alkmaar
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km231 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Telstar
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel20 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AZ Alkmaar |
Telstar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 28 Sep | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 28 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 20 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 231 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.2 | 13.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
1R. Owusu-Oduro(G)
15Mateo Chávez
5Alexandre Penetra
3W. Goes
30D. Kasius
26K. Smit
10S. Mijnans
6P. Koopmeiners
17I. Jensen
35M. Meerdink
33M. Šín
Telstar
Confirmed XI
1R. Koeman(G)
2J. Hardeveld
4G. Offerhaus
14Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo
39J. Ritmeester van de Kamp
17N. Rossen
16D. Mertens
11T. Noslin
27P. Brouwer
30K. Tejan
7S. Hetli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AZ Alkmaar
Scores -0.09 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Telstar
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AZ Alkmaar-1.7 pp
- Draw+0.5 pp
- Telstar+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
AZ Alkmaar · Home
1.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Telstar · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | AZ Alkmaar | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle | D 2–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| FC Volendam | D 2–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Groningen | W 4–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 5 of 9 · 1.67 per game | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| AZ Alkmaar | Telstar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.14 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 3.71 | 3.14 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 43% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 43% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| AZ Alkmaar | Telstar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.14 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 3.71 | 3.14 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 43% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 43% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AZ Alkmaar | Telstar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.14 | 6.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.83 | |
| Match total | 10.14 | 12.00 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 100% 6/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.71 | 1.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.57 | 0.71 | |
| Match total | 5.28 | 2.42 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 86% 6/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| AZ Alkmaar | Telstar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 10.88 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.60 | 1.89 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 0.89 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 2.78 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 74 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.07league 3.49
Red cards0.14league 0.23
Cards 5+43%league 34%
Fouls23.3league 22.1
Penalties0.28league 0.20
Home wins47%league 50%
AZ Alkmaar4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W10 Aug 25H · Groningen4–12
- L13 Apr 25A · Heracles0–11
- L13 Jan 24A · Twente1–22
- W1 Oct 23H · Fortuna Sittard4–01
Telstar1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L15 Aug 25H · PEC Zwolle0–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AZ Alkmaar7 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Telstar7 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
3
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
Telstar9 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
