AZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AZ Alkmaar were clear favourites.
AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AZ Alkmaar. AZ Alkmaar had 3.7 days of rest, Telstar 7 and had to travel 20 km.
Away travel20 kmRest days3.7 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 3
AZ Alkmaar75%
Draw15%
Telstar10%
AZ Alkmaar60%
Draw22%
Telstar17%
AZ Alkmaar74%
Draw15%
Telstar11%
AZ Alkmaar68%
Draw18%
Telstar14%
AZ Alkmaar74%
Draw15%
Telstar11%
Over 2.5 71%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alkmaar)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 70
Team strength
AZ Alkmaar
Telstar
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
52
AttackIn forecast
24
49
DefenceIn forecast
13
61
Form indexContext
8
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTelstar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AZ AlkmaarTelstar
2.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.83
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.83
3.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
0.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.25
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.57
100%
Scored inContext
50%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
19.83
ShotsContext
8.83
7.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.33
38%
On target shareContext
26%
12.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
65%
Box shareContext
66%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.40
8.67
Shots allowedContext
18.00
2.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.50
2.80
BlocksContext
5.17
1.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.67
63%
Save rateContext
72%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
533
PassesContext
355
461
Accurate passesContext
276
87%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.68
10.33
FoulsContext
10.33
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.17
0.83
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
2.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.77
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
90%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
17.30
ShotsContext
9.30
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
36%
On target shareContext
33%
11.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.25
65%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
16%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
10.70
Shots allowedContext
15.90
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.13
BlocksContext
4.80
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
71%
Save rateContext
75%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
520
PassesContext
331
447
Accurate passesContext
251
86%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.81
10.10
FoulsContext
11.50
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
0.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AZ Alkmaar
WWWDL
Rest3.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,124 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 61 · 10 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected
Telstar
LLDLD
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel20 km514 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 8 · 2 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -4.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AZ Alkmaar |
Telstar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 16 Sep | 7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 20 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,124 km | 514 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20.2 | 21 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
28J. De Busser(G)
5Mateo Chávez
4L. Schouten
3W. Goes
22Elijah Dijkstra
21D. Kwakman
6P. Koopmeiners
11Ro-Zangelo Daal
17V. Byskov
14C. Stengs
9M. Meerdink
Telstar
Confirmed XI
1R. Koeman(G)
43M. Peersman
4A. Soualhia
16S. Valk
2J. Hardeveld
10T. Owusu
17N. Rossen
3G. Alders
27P. Brouwer
7Rui Mendes
9Jelani Seedorf
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AZ Alkmaar
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Telstar
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AZ Alkmaar+1.3 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Telstar-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
AZ Alkmaar · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Telstar · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | AZ Alkmaar | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | W 3–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 AZ Alkmaar wins0 draws0 Telstar wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 25 Jan 2026Telstar0–1AZ Alkmaar
- 5 Oct 2025AZ Alkmaar2–1Telstar
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AZ Alkmaar | Telstar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.83 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 3.83 | 2.67 | 3.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| AZ Alkmaar | Telstar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.90 | 3.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AZ Alkmaar | Telstar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 9.17 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 6.83 | |
| Match total | 12.67 | 11.16 | 10.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 83% 5/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 83% 5/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.83 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 2.16 | 3.34 | 2.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 17% 1/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| AZ Alkmaar | Telstar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.20 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 6.63 | |
| Match total | 11.80 | 11.13 | 10.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.80 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 2.10 | 3.60 | 2.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 70 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.39league 2.65
Red cards0.26league 0.05
Cards 5+31%league 12%
Fouls21.8league 20.8
Penalties0.17league 0.22
Home wins47%league 28%
AZ Alkmaar8 with this referee
Record4-2-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- D3 May 26H · Twente2–20
- L7 Mar 26A · PSV Eindhoven1–21
- L28 Sep 25A · NEC Nijmegen1–26
- W11 May 25H · Groningen3–01
- W9 Feb 25H · PEC Zwolle2–01
Telstar4 with this referee
Record0-1-3
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L14 Mar 26A · Heerenveen0–31
- L22 Feb 26A · Feyenoord1–21
- L30 Nov 25H · Feyenoord1–20
- D23 Aug 25H · FC Volendam2–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AZ Alkmaar6 games · scored 17 · conceded 6
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
31-45
4
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Telstar6 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
5
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 23 · conceded 13
6
0-15
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
6
3
76-90
Telstar10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
46-60
4
1
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
