AZ Alkmaar vs Twente – 3 May 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, May 3 · 15:45 AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar 7th · 49 pts · 31 played WLWWD

First leg0–1 2–2Full time

Twente 5th · 54 pts · 31 played LWWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AZ Alkmaar were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards AZ Alkmaar. AZ Alkmaar had 9.9 days of rest, Twente 7.8 and had to travel 153 km.

Away travel153 kmRest days9.9 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

AZ Alkmaar48%

Draw24%

Twente27%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.29

AZ Alkmaar43%

Draw27%

Twente30%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.21

AZ Alkmaar48%

Draw24%

Twente27%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.29

AZ Alkmaar40%

Draw25%

Twente34%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.44

AZ Alkmaar47%

Draw25%

Twente27%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.21

Over 2.5 59% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Alkmaar)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 62

Team strength

AZ Alkmaar

Twente

43 L90 StrengthIn forecast 44

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 45

52 AttackIn forecast 41

49 DefenceIn forecast 49

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AZ Alkmaar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Twente

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AZ Alkmaar

Twente

1.68 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.68

1.45 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.06

1.75 xGVia Att/Def 1.81

1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

87% Scored inContext 81%

29% Clean sheetsContext 23%

15.42 ShotsContext 17.29

5.81 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.32

38% On target shareContext 37%

10.10 Shots in the boxContext 11.29

64% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 10%

1.76 OffsidesContext 1.65

12.03 Shots allowedContext 10.29

4.23 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.93

3.57 BlocksContext 3.28

2.93 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.66

69% Save rateContext 68%

53% PossessionIn forecast 54%

444 PassesContext 459

365 Accurate passesContext 373

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.96

9.94 FoulsContext 10.10

11.16 Fouls sufferedContext 9.58

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.39

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 31 and 31 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.87 xGVia Att/Def 1.69

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.41

70% Scored inContext 90%

50% Clean sheetsContext 20%

15.60 ShotsContext 15.70

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.70

35% On target shareContext 43%

10.10 Shots in the boxContext 10.40

65% Box shareContext 67%

12% ConversionContext 13%

1.70 OffsidesContext 1.71

10.60 Shots allowedContext 11.20

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56

3.30 BlocksContext 3.44

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44

68% Save rateContext 76%

52% PossessionIn forecast 54%

421 PassesContext 455

346 Accurate passesContext 368

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.00 Team ratingContext 7.06

9.70 FoulsContext 8.60

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.10

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 0.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AZ Alkmaar

Rest9.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km209 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Twente

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel153 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AZ Alkmaar	Twente
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	9.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 23 Apr	7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 25 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	153 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	209 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AZ Alkmaar Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1R. Owusu-Oduro(G)

34M. de Wit 5Alexandre Penetra 3W. Goes 22Elijah Dijkstra

8J. Clasie 26K. Smit

27Ro-Zangelo Daal 10S. Mijnans 17I. Jensen

9T. Parrott

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Twente Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1L. Unnerstall(G)

39M. Rots 43Ruud Nijstad 23S. Lemkin 28B. van Rooij

20T. van den Belt 6R. Zerrouki

27S. Ørjasæter 14K. Hlynsson 11D. Rots

10S. Lammers

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AZ Alkmaar Absences are shown before kick-off

Twente Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AZ Alkmaar-0.1 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Twente+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

AZ Alkmaar · Home 1.93points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 8-5-2
Scored: 2.27
Conceded: 1.40

Twente · Away 1.67points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 6-7-2
Scored: 1.80
Conceded: 1.13

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	AZ Alkmaar	Twente
GO Ahead Eagles	D 0–0 AD 2–2 H	W 4–1 AW 2–0 H
Heerenveen	W 3–0 HL 1–3 A	W 5–0 HW 2–1 A
Fortuna Sittard	W 2–0 HL 3–4 A	W 2–1 AW 3–2 H
Groningen	L 0–3 AW 4–1 H	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A
Heracles	W 4–0 HW 2–1 A	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–2 AL 1–5 H	L 0–2 H
Utrecht	L 0–2 AW 4–1 H	L 0–2 HD 1–1 A
Sparta Rotterdam	W 3–1 HW 1–0 A	W 5–1 A
Excelsior	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A
Ajax	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A	W 2–1 AL 2–3 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 1–3 HL 1–2 A	D 1–1 HD 3–3 A
Telstar	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H	D 1–1 AD 0–0 H
PEC Zwolle	L 1–3 AD 2–2 H	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A
FC Volendam	W 1–0 HD 2–2 A	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A
Feyenoord	D 3–3 H	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A
NAC Breda	W 1–0 A	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H
Points	49 of 90 · 1.63 per game	51 of 90 · 1.70 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

2 AZ Alkmaar wins0 draws2 Twente wins

Goals per game1.25 – 1.25 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 25%

30 Nov 2025Twente1–0AZ Alkmaar
14 May 2025Twente2–3AZ Alkmaar
21 Dec 2024AZ Alkmaar1–0Twente
13 Jan 2024Twente2–1AZ Alkmaar

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AZ Alkmaar	Twente	Forecast
Scored per game	1.68	1.68
Conceded per game	1.45	1.06
Match goals	3.13	2.74	3.05
Over 1.5	81%	84%
Over 2.5	65%	45%	59%
Over 3.5	42%	26%
Both teams scored	61%	65%	61%
Clean sheets	29%	23%
Failed to score	13%	19%
Games	31	31

	AZ Alkmaar	Twente	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	2.10
Conceded per game	1.00	0.90
Match goals	2.60	3.00	3.05
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	59%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	61%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AZ Alkmaar	Twente	League
Corners
Corners won	5.77	4.87
Corners conceded	4.35	4.00
Match total	10.12	8.87	10.29
Over 8.5	77% 24/31	47% 14/30
Over 9.5	45% 14/31	33% 10/30
Over 10.5	35% 11/31	27% 8/30
Cards
Cards	1.94	1.48
Opponent cards	1.58	2.00
Match total	3.52	3.48	3.31
Over 3.5	42% 13/31	39% 12/31
Over 4.5	23% 7/31	29% 9/31

	AZ Alkmaar	Twente	League
Corners
Corners won	6.90	4.22
Corners conceded	4.00	4.00
Match total	10.90	8.22	10.29
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	1.30	0.70
Opponent cards	2.20	1.90
Match total	3.50	2.60	3.31
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 62 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.45league 3.14

Red cards0.29league 0.17

Cards 5+34%league 26%

Fouls22.0league 21.2

Penalties0.18league 0.21

Home wins48%league 44%

AZ Alkmaar7 with this referee

Record4-1-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds2

L7 Mar 26A · PSV Eindhoven1–21
L28 Sep 25A · NEC Nijmegen1–26
W11 May 25H · Groningen3–01
W9 Feb 25H · PEC Zwolle2–01
W14 Sep 24H · Heerenveen9–10

Twente6 with this referee

Record4-0-2 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.7 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

W4 Apr 26A · Ajax2–12
W18 Jan 26A · Heracles2–05
L17 Aug 25H · PSV Eindhoven0–21
L6 Dec 24A · PSV Eindhoven1–61
W3 Feb 24H · Waalwijk3–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.